{"id":96611,"date":"2026-01-16T06:26:17","date_gmt":"2026-01-16T06:26:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/?p=96611"},"modified":"2026-01-16T06:26:17","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T06:26:17","slug":"tre-skenaret-per-iranin-revolucion-francez-apo-grusht-shteti-cfare-po-kurdiset-ne-prapaskene","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/tre-skenaret-per-iranin-revolucion-francez-apo-grusht-shteti-cfare-po-kurdiset-ne-prapaskene\/","title":{"rendered":"Tre skenar\u00ebt p\u00ebr Iranin\/ Revolucion francez apo grusht shteti? \u00c7far\u00eb po \u201ckurdiset\u201d n\u00eb prapasken\u00eb"},"content":{"rendered":"
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16 Janar 2026<\/p>\n

Thirrjet e Donald Trump p\u00ebr revolucion n\u00eb Iran ndez\u00ebn pritshm\u00ebri t\u00eb m\u00ebdha, por politika l\u00ebviz m\u00eb shpejt se historia. \u201cR\u00ebnia e Republik\u00ebs Islamike nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje d\u00ebshire, por skenar\u00ebsh konkret\u00eb\u201d shkruan \u201cCorriere della Sera\u201d, q\u00eb n\u00eb analiz\u00ebn e saj vler\u00ebson se deri tani ekzistojn\u00eb tre skenar\u00eb dhe secili prej tyre ka pasoja t\u00eb r\u00ebnda.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Skenari i par\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb revolucioni popullor, i ngjash\u00ebm me modelin francez. Rr\u00ebzimi i dhunsh\u00ebm i regjimit do t\u00eb shoq\u00ebrohej me gjykata revolucionare, spastrime dhe p\u00ebrplasje mes fituesve. P\u00ebrvoja e vitit 1979 dhe lufta n\u00eb Siri tregojn\u00eb se kjo rrug\u00eb hap cikle gjakderdhjeje dhe destabilizimi rajonal. N\u00eb nj\u00eb Iran me 90 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb dhe ekonomi t\u00eb kontrolluar nga elitat fetare e ushtarake, nj\u00eb \u201cterror revolucionar\u201d do t\u00eb ishte shkat\u00ebrrues.<\/p>\n

Skenari i dyt\u00eb lidhet me opozit\u00ebn n\u00eb m\u00ebrgim, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht me djalin e Shahut. Por mungesa e strukturave brenda vendit, e nj\u00eb lidershipi t\u00eb organizuar dhe e kontrollit t\u00eb institucioneve e b\u00ebn k\u00ebt\u00eb alternativ\u00eb t\u00eb brisht\u00eb. Protestat kan\u00eb qen\u00eb t\u00eb shpeshta, por pa drejtim dhe pa nj\u00eb forc\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb marr\u00eb pushtetin real.<\/p>\n

Skenari i tret\u00eb, m\u00eb pak ideologjik por m\u00eb realist, \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb grusht shteti ushtarak. Nj\u00eb tranzicion nga brenda aparatit t\u00eb siguris\u00eb do t\u00eb shmangte kaosin, do t\u00eb ruante shtetin funksional dhe do t\u00eb garantonte stabilitetin minimal. \u00c7mimi do t\u00eb ishte ngrirja e ndryshimeve demokratike, por historia tregon se kjo rrug\u00eb shpesh ndalon shkat\u00ebrrimin total.<\/p>\n

R\u00ebnia e regjimeve nuk sjell automatikisht liri. N\u00eb Iran, dilema nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm si p\u00ebrfundojn\u00eb ajatollah\u00ebt, por \u00e7far\u00eb vjen pas tyre. Dhe kjo mbetet pyetja m\u00eb e rrezikshme.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

16 Janar 2026 Thirrjet e Donald Trump p\u00ebr revolucion n\u00eb Iran ndez\u00ebn pritshm\u00ebri t\u00eb m\u00ebdha, por politika l\u00ebviz m\u00eb shpejt se historia. \u201cR\u00ebnia e Republik\u00ebs Islamike nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje d\u00ebshire, por skenar\u00ebsh konkret\u00eb\u201d shkruan \u201cCorriere della Sera\u201d, q\u00eb n\u00eb analiz\u00ebn e saj vler\u00ebson se deri tani ekzistojn\u00eb tre skenar\u00eb dhe secili prej tyre ka pasoja […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":96612,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[27,1,2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-96611","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blogu-i-udhetarit","category-njoftime-shtypi","category-politika"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/69692b026cedd_sd.webp?fit=1280%2C720&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5Z6wp-p8f","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":101734,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/eurodeputetja-franceze-kritikon-macron-per-takimin-me-ramen-dhe-mbeshtet-protestat-ne-tirane\/","url_meta":{"origin":96611,"position":0},"title":"Eurodeputetja franceze kritikon Macron p\u00ebr takimin me Ram\u00ebn dhe mb\u00ebshtet protestat n\u00eb Tiran\u00eb","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"June 23, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"23 Qershor 2026 Eurodeputetja franceze Manon Aubry ka reaguar publikisht p\u00ebr zhvillimet e fundit politike n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri, duke kritikuar presidentin francez Emmanuel Macron p\u00ebr takimin me kryeministrin Edi Rama dhe duke shprehur hapur mb\u00ebshtetjen p\u00ebr protestat qytetare q\u00eb po zhvillohen n\u00eb vend. N\u00eb q\u00ebndrimin e saj, Aubry shfaqet kund\u00ebr asaj\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit"","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/IMG_3892-1.jpeg?fit=696%2C464&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/IMG_3892-1.jpeg?fit=696%2C464&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/IMG_3892-1.jpeg?fit=696%2C464&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":102167,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/lubonja-presidenti-asnje-reagim-e-turpshme\/","url_meta":{"origin":96611,"position":1},"title":"Lubonja: – Presidenti asnj\u00eb reagim, e turpshme!","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"July 2, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"2 Korrik 2026 Analisti Fatos Lubonja n\u00eb nj\u00eb intervist\u00eb n\u00eb \u201cNews24\u201d foli p\u00ebr zhvillimet e fundit politike duke u ndalur te protesta e sotme e mbajtur para Kuvendit. Gjat\u00eb intervist\u00ebs, Lubonja tha se protestuesit n\u00eb gjith\u00eb k\u00ebto dit\u00eb kan\u00eb zhvilluar nj\u00eb revolucion paq\u00ebsor. 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