{"id":96611,"date":"2026-01-16T06:26:17","date_gmt":"2026-01-16T06:26:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/?p=96611"},"modified":"2026-01-16T06:26:17","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T06:26:17","slug":"tre-skenaret-per-iranin-revolucion-francez-apo-grusht-shteti-cfare-po-kurdiset-ne-prapaskene","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/tre-skenaret-per-iranin-revolucion-francez-apo-grusht-shteti-cfare-po-kurdiset-ne-prapaskene\/","title":{"rendered":"Tre skenar\u00ebt p\u00ebr Iranin\/ Revolucion francez apo grusht shteti? \u00c7far\u00eb po \u201ckurdiset\u201d n\u00eb prapasken\u00eb"},"content":{"rendered":"
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16 Janar 2026<\/p>\n

Thirrjet e Donald Trump p\u00ebr revolucion n\u00eb Iran ndez\u00ebn pritshm\u00ebri t\u00eb m\u00ebdha, por politika l\u00ebviz m\u00eb shpejt se historia. \u201cR\u00ebnia e Republik\u00ebs Islamike nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje d\u00ebshire, por skenar\u00ebsh konkret\u00eb\u201d shkruan \u201cCorriere della Sera\u201d, q\u00eb n\u00eb analiz\u00ebn e saj vler\u00ebson se deri tani ekzistojn\u00eb tre skenar\u00eb dhe secili prej tyre ka pasoja t\u00eb r\u00ebnda.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Skenari i par\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb revolucioni popullor, i ngjash\u00ebm me modelin francez. Rr\u00ebzimi i dhunsh\u00ebm i regjimit do t\u00eb shoq\u00ebrohej me gjykata revolucionare, spastrime dhe p\u00ebrplasje mes fituesve. P\u00ebrvoja e vitit 1979 dhe lufta n\u00eb Siri tregojn\u00eb se kjo rrug\u00eb hap cikle gjakderdhjeje dhe destabilizimi rajonal. N\u00eb nj\u00eb Iran me 90 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb dhe ekonomi t\u00eb kontrolluar nga elitat fetare e ushtarake, nj\u00eb \u201cterror revolucionar\u201d do t\u00eb ishte shkat\u00ebrrues.<\/p>\n

Skenari i dyt\u00eb lidhet me opozit\u00ebn n\u00eb m\u00ebrgim, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht me djalin e Shahut. Por mungesa e strukturave brenda vendit, e nj\u00eb lidershipi t\u00eb organizuar dhe e kontrollit t\u00eb institucioneve e b\u00ebn k\u00ebt\u00eb alternativ\u00eb t\u00eb brisht\u00eb. Protestat kan\u00eb qen\u00eb t\u00eb shpeshta, por pa drejtim dhe pa nj\u00eb forc\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb marr\u00eb pushtetin real.<\/p>\n

Skenari i tret\u00eb, m\u00eb pak ideologjik por m\u00eb realist, \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb grusht shteti ushtarak. Nj\u00eb tranzicion nga brenda aparatit t\u00eb siguris\u00eb do t\u00eb shmangte kaosin, do t\u00eb ruante shtetin funksional dhe do t\u00eb garantonte stabilitetin minimal. \u00c7mimi do t\u00eb ishte ngrirja e ndryshimeve demokratike, por historia tregon se kjo rrug\u00eb shpesh ndalon shkat\u00ebrrimin total.<\/p>\n

R\u00ebnia e regjimeve nuk sjell automatikisht liri. N\u00eb Iran, dilema nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm si p\u00ebrfundojn\u00eb ajatollah\u00ebt, por \u00e7far\u00eb vjen pas tyre. Dhe kjo mbetet pyetja m\u00eb e rrezikshme.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

16 Janar 2026 Thirrjet e Donald Trump p\u00ebr revolucion n\u00eb Iran ndez\u00ebn pritshm\u00ebri t\u00eb m\u00ebdha, por politika l\u00ebviz m\u00eb shpejt se historia. \u201cR\u00ebnia e Republik\u00ebs Islamike nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje d\u00ebshire, por skenar\u00ebsh konkret\u00eb\u201d shkruan \u201cCorriere della Sera\u201d, q\u00eb n\u00eb analiz\u00ebn e saj vler\u00ebson se deri tani ekzistojn\u00eb tre skenar\u00eb dhe secili prej tyre ka pasoja […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":96612,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[27,1,2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-96611","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blogu-i-udhetarit","category-njoftime-shtypi","category-politika"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/69692b026cedd_sd.webp?fit=1280%2C720&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5Z6wp-p8f","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":100680,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/doreshkrimi-700-vjecar-per-mbretin-artur-del-ne-ankand-vleresohet-deri-ne-2-milione-paund\/","url_meta":{"origin":96611,"position":0},"title":"Dor\u00ebshkrimi 700-vje\u00e7ar per Mbretin Artur del n\u00eb ankand, vler\u00ebsohet deri n\u00eb 2 milion\u00eb paund","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"May 27, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"27 Maji 2026 Nj\u00eb nga dor\u00ebshkrimet m\u00eb t\u00eb hershme q\u00eb rr\u00ebfen historin\u00eb e Mbretit Artur dhe k\u00ebrkimin p\u00ebr Graalin e Shenjt\u00eb do t\u00eb dal\u00eb n\u00eb ankand n\u00eb korrik, me nj\u00eb vler\u00eb t\u00eb parashikuar nga 1.5 deri n\u00eb 2 milion\u00eb paund. Dor\u00ebshkrimi mesjetar, i dekoruar me flet\u00eb ari dhe ilustrime t\u00eb\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit"","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/auto_image-556-1024x8191779799947-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C819&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/auto_image-556-1024x8191779799947-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C819&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/auto_image-556-1024x8191779799947-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C819&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/auto_image-556-1024x8191779799947-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C819&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":100792,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/revolucioni-i-zvernecit-dhe-aleanca-e-dyshimte-mes-politikes-dhe-qarqeve-antishqiptare\/","url_meta":{"origin":96611,"position":1},"title":"Revolucioni i Zv\u00ebrnecit dhe aleanca e dyshimt\u00eb mes politik\u00ebs dhe qarqeve antishqiptare","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"May 31, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"31 Maji 2026 Protesta e Zv\u00ebrnecit \u00ebsht\u00eb shnd\u00ebrruar n\u00eb nj\u00eb tragjikomedi ku nd\u00ebrthuren brenda interesa antishqiptare, politike por dhe biznesesh t\u00eb cil\u00ebt ndjejn\u00eb konkurrenc\u00ebn. Protesta e Zv\u00ebrnecit \u00ebsht\u00eb shnd\u00ebrruar n\u00eb nj\u00eb tragjikomedi ku nd\u00ebrthuren brenda interesa antishqiptare, politike por dhe biznesesh t\u00eb cil\u00ebt ndjejn\u00eb konkurrenc\u00ebn e nj\u00eb investimi q\u00eb do\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit"","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Protesta-ne-Zvernec.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Protesta-ne-Zvernec.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Protesta-ne-Zvernec.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Protesta-ne-Zvernec.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Protesta-ne-Zvernec.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":100385,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/urdheri-me-misterioz-i-mesjetes-kaloresit-templare-origjina-e-vertete-e-tyre\/","url_meta":{"origin":96611,"position":2},"title":"Urdh\u00ebri m\u00eb misterioz i Mesjet\u00ebs: Kalor\u00ebsit Templar\u00eb, origjina e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb e tyre","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"May 18, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"18 Maji 2026 N\u00eb vitin 1119, vet\u00ebm n\u00ebnt\u00eb kalor\u00ebs francez\u00eb b\u00ebn\u00eb nj\u00eb betim t\u00eb pazakont\u00eb n\u00eb Jerusalem. Kalor\u00ebsit Templar\u00eb nuk k\u00ebrkuan tok\u00eb, pasuri apo tituj. Premtuan vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb gj\u00eb: t\u00eb mbronin pelegrin\u00ebt q\u00eb udh\u00ebtonin drejt Tok\u00ebs s\u00eb Shenjt\u00eb. Por brenda pak dekadash, ky grup i vog\u00ebl luft\u00ebtar\u00ebsh u shnd\u00ebrrua n\u00eb\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Histori"","block_context":{"text":"Histori","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/histori\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/auto_Kaloresit-Templare_11778842861.jpg?fit=826%2C588&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/auto_Kaloresit-Templare_11778842861.jpg?fit=826%2C588&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/auto_Kaloresit-Templare_11778842861.jpg?fit=826%2C588&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/auto_Kaloresit-Templare_11778842861.jpg?fit=826%2C588&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":100490,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/fola-me-macron-rama-implikoi-presidentin-e-frances-te-parku-i-karavastase\/","url_meta":{"origin":96611,"position":3},"title":"‘Fola me Macron’ Rama implikoi presidentin e Franc\u00ebs te Parku i Karavastas\u00eb","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"May 20, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"20 Maji 2026 Pra pam\u00eb se si fal Edi Ram\u00ebs dhe Belinda Ballukut shqiptar\u00ebt siguruan furnizimin me energji 70 Megavat me nj\u00eb \u00e7mim p\u00ebr 24. 89 euro p\u00ebr megavat n\u00eb or\u00eb. V\u00ebrtet\u00eb emocionuese kur e mendon, por a \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb? A po ju kushton shqiptar\u00ebve energjia e prodhuar n\u00eb\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit"","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Rama-Makron.jpg?fit=780%2C440&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Rama-Makron.jpg?fit=780%2C440&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Rama-Makron.jpg?fit=780%2C440&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Rama-Makron.jpg?fit=780%2C440&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":101086,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/proteste-madheshtore-ne-tirane-rama-te-jape-doreheqjen-shqiperia-nuk-shitet\/","url_meta":{"origin":96611,"position":4},"title":"Protest\u00eb madh\u00ebshtore n\u00eb Tiran\u00eb: – Rama t\u00eb jap\u00eb dor\u00ebheqjen! – Shqip\u00ebria nuk shitet!","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"June 4, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"4 Qershor 2026 Mij\u00ebra qytetar\u00eb kan\u00eb mbushur k\u00ebt\u00eb mbr\u00ebmje bulevardin \u201cD\u00ebshmor\u00ebt e Kombit\u201d, duke iu bashkuar protest\u00ebs kund\u00ebr projektit p\u00ebr nd\u00ebrtimin e nj\u00eb resorti turistik n\u00eb zon\u00ebn e mbrojtur t\u00eb Zv\u00ebrnecit Pas grumbullimit n\u00eb sheshin \u201cSk\u00ebnderbej\u201d, protestuesit marshuan drejt Kryeministris\u00eb, duke mbajtur pankarta dhe flamuj, nd\u00ebrsa brohorisnin slogane kund\u00ebr qeveris\u00eb\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit"","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/protesta-ne-bulevard-4-qershor-2026.jpg?fit=632%2C278&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/protesta-ne-bulevard-4-qershor-2026.jpg?fit=632%2C278&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/protesta-ne-bulevard-4-qershor-2026.jpg?fit=632%2C278&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":100753,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/cfare-po-paralajmeron-edi-rama-per-belinda-ballukun-deklaron-se-nuk-do-nderhyjne-me-ne-sistemin-e-drejtesise-pas\/","url_meta":{"origin":96611,"position":5},"title":"\u00c7far\u00eb po paralajm\u00ebron Edi Rama p\u00ebr Belinda Ballukun, deklaron se nuk do nd\u00ebrhyjn\u00eb m\u00eb n\u00eb sistemin e drejt\u00ebsis\u00eb pas\u2026","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"May 30, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"30 Maji 2026 N\u00eb kuad\u00ebr t\u00eb 35-vjetorit t\u00eb Partis\u00eb Socialiste, kryeministri Edi Rama gjat\u00eb nj\u00eb takimi n\u00eb Dib\u00ebr ka dh\u00ebn\u00eb dje sinjale se do t\u00eb \u201cl\u00ebshoj\u00eb\u201d ish-zv\/kryeministren Belinda Balluku dhe zyrtar\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb socialist\u00eb q\u00eb po hetohen nga drejt\u00ebsia, kryesisht Prokuroria e Posa\u00e7me (SPAK) si t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit"","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Balluku-Rama.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Balluku-Rama.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Balluku-Rama.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96611","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96611"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96611\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":96613,"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96611\/revisions\/96613"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96612"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96611"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96611"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96611"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}