{"id":86411,"date":"2024-11-16T06:27:45","date_gmt":"2024-11-16T06:27:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/?p=86411"},"modified":"2024-11-16T06:27:45","modified_gmt":"2024-11-16T06:27:45","slug":"cfare-tregon-rritja-e-cmimit-te-arit-per-nje-bote-te-rrezikshme-the-economist-efektet-e-frikes-financiare-dhe-trazirave-gjeopolitike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/cfare-tregon-rritja-e-cmimit-te-arit-per-nje-bote-te-rrezikshme-the-economist-efektet-e-frikes-financiare-dhe-trazirave-gjeopolitike\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7far\u00eb tregon rritja e \u00e7mimit t\u00eb arit p\u00ebr nj\u00eb bot\u00eb t\u00eb rrezikshme!? The Economist: Efektet e frik\u00ebs financiare dhe trazirave gjeopolitike"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

16 Nentor 2024<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00eb pak se nj\u00eb milje larg nga aeroporti luksoz Changi i Singaporit,<\/span>\u00a0ndodhet nj\u00eb park biznesi m\u00eb pak t\u00ebrheq\u00ebs. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb zon\u00eb industriale, ndodhen selit\u00eb e disa kompanive t\u00eb mallrave dhe logjistik\u00ebs, dhe zyrat e disa bankave.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb nd\u00ebrtes\u00eb bie n\u00eb sy m\u00eb tep\u00ebr se t\u00eb tjerat. Pas nj\u00eb fasade oniksi me shk\u00eblqim, radh\u00ebve t\u00eb siguris\u00eb dhe dyerve t\u00eb r\u00ebnda \u00e7eliku, ruhen m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 1 miliard dollar\u00eb n\u00eb ar, argjend dhe thesare t\u00eb tjera.<\/p>\n

\u201cRezerva\u201d strehon dhjet\u00ebra kasaforta private, mij\u00ebra kasaforta p\u00ebr depozita t\u00eb sigurta dhe nj\u00eb depo n\u00eb form\u00eb shpelle, t\u00eb mbushur me rafte q\u00eb ngrihen tri kate mbi tok\u00eb, n\u00ebp\u00ebr t\u00eb cilat ruhen metale t\u00eb \u00e7muara.<\/p>\n

\"Rritja-e-vleres-1156\"<\/p>\n

Frika financiare dhe trazirat gjeopolitike kan\u00eb dh\u00ebn\u00eb nj\u00eb efekt t\u00eb madh, shkruan The Economis<\/strong><\/p>\n

M\u00eb pak se nj\u00eb milje larg nga aeroporti luksoz Changi i Singaporit, ndodhet nj\u00eb park biznesi m\u00eb pak t\u00ebrheq\u00ebs. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb zon\u00eb industriale, ndodhen selit\u00eb e disa kompanive t\u00eb mallrave dhe logjistik\u00ebs, dhe zyrat e disa bankave.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb nd\u00ebrtes\u00eb bie n\u00eb sy m\u00eb tep\u00ebr se t\u00eb tjerat. Pas nj\u00eb fasade oniksi me shk\u00eblqim, radh\u00ebve t\u00eb siguris\u00eb dhe dyerve t\u00eb r\u00ebnda \u00e7eliku, ruhen m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 1 miliard dollar\u00eb n\u00eb ar, argjend dhe thesare t\u00eb tjera.<\/p>\n

\u201cRezerva\u201d strehon dhjet\u00ebra kasaforta private, mij\u00ebra kasaforta p\u00ebr depozita t\u00eb sigurta dhe nj\u00eb depo n\u00eb form\u00eb shpelle, t\u00eb mbushur me rafte q\u00eb ngrihen tri kate mbi tok\u00eb, n\u00ebp\u00ebr t\u00eb cilat ruhen metale t\u00eb \u00e7muara.<\/p>\n

\"Gjithcka-qe-shkelqen-1156\"<\/p>\n

Adhuruesit m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdhenj t\u00eb metaleve t\u00eb \u00e7muara, jo gjithmon\u00eb e ndihmojn\u00eb veten. Ata b\u00ebjn\u00eb parashikime t\u00eb \u00e7uditshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb justifikuar bastet e tyre.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb justifikim i zakonsh\u00ebm \u00ebsht\u00eb besimi se po afron nj\u00eb falimentim amerikan p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb mosshlyerjes s\u00eb borxhit. Nj\u00eb arsye tjet\u00ebr edhe m\u00eb qesharake \u00ebsht\u00eb parashikimi se Kina dhe Rusia do t\u00eb lan\u00e7ojn\u00eb nj\u00eb monedh\u00eb t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur nga ari.<\/p>\n

Por sot ka m\u00eb shum\u00eb njer\u00ebz t\u00eb bindur se gj\u00ebrat me t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb po p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsohen nga ana financiare, n\u00eb krahasim me disa vite m\u00eb par\u00eb, dhe kan\u00eb arsye m\u00eb racionale p\u00ebr t\u00eb besuar k\u00ebshtu.<\/p>\n

Zyrat Familjare<\/strong><\/p>\n

Po rriten me shpejt\u00ebsi Zyrat Familjare, q\u00eb jan\u00eb mjeti i parap\u00eblqyer i investimit p\u00ebr t\u00eb pasurit. Asetet n\u00ebn menaxhim jan\u00eb rritur nga 3.3 trilion\u00eb dollar\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2019, n\u00eb 5.5 trilion\u00eb dollar\u00eb sot, dhe shum\u00eb investitor\u00eb duan t\u00eb mbrojn\u00eb pasurin\u00eb e tyre nga rezultatet e tmerrshme.<\/p>\n

Vlera e nj\u00eb monedhe mund t\u00eb bjer\u00eb, si kundrejt t\u00eb tjerave, ashtu edhe p\u00ebr sa i p\u00ebrket fuqis\u00eb s\u00eb saj bler\u00ebse.<\/p>\n

Oferta relativisht fikse e arit dhe popullariteti i tij historik, i nxit investitor\u00ebt q\u00eb t\u00eb besojn\u00eb se ai mund t\u2019i mbroj\u00eb kund\u00ebr rritjes s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve dhe politikave t\u00eb gabuara.<\/p>\n

Sipas firm\u00ebs s\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave Campden Wealth, mbi dy t\u00eb tretat e zyrave familjare investojn\u00eb n\u00eb ar.<\/p>\n

Shum\u00eb k\u00ebrkesa vijn\u00eb nga Azia: Kina dhe India p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb nj\u00eb t\u00eb pest\u00ebn e prodhimit ekonomik n\u00eb bot\u00eb, por jan\u00eb p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebse p\u00ebr gjysm\u00ebn e blerjeve t\u00eb arit fizik nga konsumator\u00ebt. Nj\u00eb indian mesatar tani \u00ebsht\u00eb po aq i etur p\u00ebr ar, sa nj\u00eb amerikan apo gjerman (shih grafikun 3).<\/p>\n

\"Blerja-e-arit-1156\"<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, dashuria kineze dhe indiane p\u00ebr arin po rritet. N\u00eb Kin\u00eb, nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb pronash i ka shtyr\u00eb njer\u00ebzit me kapital q\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb burime gjetiu.<\/p>\n

Blerjet e shufrave dhe monedhave t\u00eb arit u rrit\u00ebn me 44% n\u00eb vitin deri n\u00eb qershor, n\u00eb krahasim me 12 muajt e m\u00ebparsh\u00ebm. Nd\u00ebrsa India b\u00ebhet m\u00eb e pasur, m\u00eb shum\u00eb njer\u00ebz jan\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb blejn\u00eb ar.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb pasoj\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb se kreditimi i mb\u00ebshtetur nga ari \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur. Muthoot Finance, nj\u00eb huadh\u00ebn\u00ebsi t\u00eb till\u00eb, i jan\u00eb trefishuar \u00e7mimet e aksioneve n\u00eb pes\u00eb vitet e fundit.<\/p>\n

Por \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr klas\u00eb investitor\u00ebsh, ndoshta m\u00eb paranojakja dhe konservatorja nga t\u00eb gjitha, q\u00eb ka nxitur me t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb rritjen e vler\u00ebs s\u00eb arit: k\u00ebta jan\u00eb menaxher\u00ebt e rezervave n\u00eb bankat qendrore.<\/p>\n

Pjesa e arit n\u00eb rezervat e bankave qendrore kishte r\u00ebn\u00eb p\u00ebr dekada, nga pothuajse 40% n\u00eb vitin 1970, n\u00eb vet\u00ebm 6% n\u00eb vitin 2008. Megjithat\u00eb, koh\u00ebt e fundit, pjesa e tij \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme, me 11% vitin e kaluar, m\u00eb e larta n\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 20 vjet (shih grafikun 4).<\/p>\n

Pushtimi rus i Ukrain\u00ebs dhe ngrirja e m\u00ebpasshme e rezervave ruse n\u00eb valut\u00eb, ishte nj\u00eb \u00e7ast ky\u00e7. Ajo u tregoi menaxher\u00ebve t\u00eb rezervave se n\u00ebse vendi i tyre do t\u00eb vihej n\u00ebn sanksione, Thesaret Amerikane dhe asetet e tjera q\u00eb mendoheshin si t\u00eb sigurta, nuk do t\u00eb ishin t\u00eb dobishme.<\/p>\n

Q\u00eb nga fillimi i vitit 2022, autoritetet monetare n\u00eb Kin\u00eb, Turqi dhe Indi, kan\u00eb bler\u00eb p\u00ebrkat\u00ebsisht 316, 198 dhe 95 ton ar, sipas K\u00ebshillit Bot\u00ebror t\u00eb Arit, nj\u00eb grup industrie.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb vend q\u00eb t\u00eb investojn\u00eb n\u00eb ETF, bankat qendrore grumbullojn\u00eb kryesisht ar fizik dhe sigurohen q\u00eb ta ken\u00eb pran\u00eb: sepse, ashtu si\u00e7 asetet financiare p\u00ebrballen me mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e sekuestrimit, e nj\u00ebjta gj\u00eb vlen edhe p\u00ebr arin e mbajtur jasht\u00eb shtetit.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr shembull, qeveria britanike, nuk ka pranuar t\u00eb riatdhesoj\u00eb dhjet\u00ebra ton\u00eb ar n\u00eb Venezuel\u00eb, sepse nuk pranon t\u00eb njoh\u00eb Nicol\u00e1s Maduro-n si nj\u00eb udh\u00ebheq\u00ebs legjitim.<\/p>\n

Bankat qendrore<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jo t\u00eb gjitha bankat qendrore q\u00eb nxjerrin ar kan\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira me Per\u00ebndimin. Autoriteti Monetar i Singaporit ka grumbulluar 75 ton\u00eb q\u00eb nga fillimi i vitit 2022.<\/p>\n

Banka Komb\u00ebtare e Polonis\u00eb ka rritur zot\u00ebrimet me 167 ton\u00eb gjat\u00eb s\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebs periudh\u00eb, si pjes\u00eb e nj\u00eb strategjie p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbajtur 20% t\u00eb rezervave n\u00eb ar.<\/p>\n

Presidenti i bank\u00ebs, Adam Glapinski, e sheh arin si nj\u00eb mbrojtje strategjike, pasi ai ka lidhje t\u00eb pakta me grupet e tjera t\u00eb aseteve. \u201c\u00c7mimi i arit, \u2013 tha ai n\u00eb vitin 2021 \u2013 zakonisht \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i lart\u00eb pik\u00ebrisht n\u00eb periudhat kur banka qendrore mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb nevoj\u00eb m\u00eb s\u00eb shumti p\u00ebr municionet e tij\u201d.<\/p>\n

K\u00ebrkesa e bank\u00ebs qendrore nuk ka gjasa t\u00eb bjer\u00eb s\u00eb shpejti. Nj\u00eb studim i investitor\u00ebve sovran\u00eb nga Invesco Asset Management, k\u00ebt\u00eb vit, zbuloi se asnj\u00eb nga 51 banka qendrore nuk pret t\u00eb ul\u00eb grumbullimin e arit n\u00eb tre vitet e ardhshme dhe 37% presin ta rrisin at\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Midis bankier\u00ebve qendror\u00eb, rreth 56% besojn\u00eb se ari mund\u00ebson mbrojtje kund\u00ebr \u201cp\u00ebrdorimit si arm\u00eb\u201d t\u00eb rezervave t\u00eb bank\u00ebs qendrore dhe 70% e shohin at\u00eb si nj\u00eb mbrojtje kund\u00ebr inflacionit.<\/p>\n

K\u00ebrkesa nga bankat qendrore, t\u00eb cilat investojn\u00eb p\u00ebr arsye sigurie dhe jo p\u00ebr kthime fitimi, gjithashtu ndihmon p\u00ebr t\u00eb shpjeguar pse marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnia e arit me normat e interesit \u00ebsht\u00eb prishur.<\/p>\n

Ky metal zakonisht ka performanc\u00eb t\u00eb dob\u00ebt kur yield-et reale t\u00eb bonove t\u00eb sigurta t\u00eb qeveris\u00eb jan\u00eb t\u00eb larta, q\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se ato mund\u00ebsojn\u00eb nj\u00eb kthim t\u00eb fort\u00eb fitimi, edhe pas inflacionit. N\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt, kur kthimet e fitimit p\u00ebr bonot m\u00eb t\u00eb sigurta jan\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta, vlera e arit ka prirjen t\u00eb ngrihet.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb nj\u00eb mjedis me yield t\u00eb ul\u00ebt, investitor\u00ebt priren q\u00eb t\u00eb marrin n\u00eb konsiderat\u00eb nj\u00eb aset q\u00eb nuk prodhon t\u00eb ardhura. Megjithat\u00eb, q\u00eb nga fundi i vitit 2021, korrelacioni dikur i besuesh\u00ebm \u00ebsht\u00eb shembur.<\/p>\n

Ari \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur n\u00eb \u00e7mim edhe pse yield-et n\u00eb thesaret amerikane dhjet\u00ebvje\u00e7are t\u00eb mbrojtura nga inflacioni, u rrit\u00ebn nga minus 1%, n\u00eb rreth 1.8%. Her\u00ebn e fundit kur yield-et reale ishin kaq t\u00eb larta, ari vlente rreth 1000 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr troj ons, pothuajse dy t\u00eb tretat m\u00eb pak se \u00e7mimi i tanish\u00ebm.<\/p>\n

Sa i dobish\u00ebm do t\u00eb jet\u00eb ari n\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb? Nicholas Mulder nga Universiteti Cornell, v\u00ebren se ai mund t\u00eb shitet n\u00eb sasi t\u00eb vogla n\u00eb Gjirin Persik politikisht asnjan\u00ebs, n\u00eb k\u00ebmbim t\u00eb nj\u00eb s\u00ebr\u00eb monedhash.<\/p>\n

Edhe pse Rusia u shk\u00ebput nga tregjet per\u00ebndimore t\u00eb arit, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb kufizimeve t\u00eb vendosura kund\u00ebr qeveris\u00eb dhe disa kompani jan\u00eb nd\u00ebshkuar p\u00ebr pazaret me minator\u00ebt rus\u00eb, nj\u00eb rritje e dyshimt\u00eb n\u00eb importet e arit nga Zvicra prej Emirateve t\u00eb Bashkuara Arabe n\u00eb muajt pas pushtimit t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs, tregon se Moska arriti ta tregtonte arin e saj.<\/p>\n

Parandalimi i shitjes s\u00eb nj\u00eb aseti q\u00eb mund t\u00eb qarkullohet si kontraband\u00eb n\u00ebp\u00ebr bot\u00eb n\u00eb sasi t\u00eb vogla dhe t\u00eb shkrihet \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb detyr\u00eb thjesht e pamundur.<\/p>\n

Jo frik\u00eb n\u00eb treg<\/strong><\/p>\n

Investitor\u00ebt shum\u00eb t\u00eb pasur mund t\u00eb blejn\u00eb gjithashtu m\u00eb shum\u00eb ar. Por p\u00ebr furnizuesit e arit synimi i v\u00ebrtet\u00eb jan\u00eb investitor\u00ebt institucional\u00eb. Furnizues t\u00eb till\u00eb mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb me fat. Banka Goldman Sachs v\u00ebren se k\u00ebrkesa p\u00ebr ETF-t\u00eb e arit priret t\u00eb rritet me r\u00ebnien e normave t\u00eb interesit n\u00eb Amerik\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Zakonisht, nj\u00eb ulje e norm\u00ebs s\u00eb interesit prej nj\u00eb \u00e7erek pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje, rrit zot\u00ebrimet e ETF-s\u00eb n\u00eb ar me 60 ton\u00eb. Kritika e zotit Buffett se ari k\u00ebrkon frik\u00eb dhe besim se frika do t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapet, \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb. Sidoqoft\u00eb, tani p\u00ebr tani, ka shum\u00eb investitor\u00eb t\u00eb frik\u00ebsuar.\/Monitor<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

16 Nentor 2024 M\u00eb pak se nj\u00eb milje larg nga aeroporti luksoz Changi i Singaporit,\u00a0ndodhet nj\u00eb park biznesi m\u00eb pak t\u00ebrheq\u00ebs. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb zon\u00eb industriale, ndodhen selit\u00eb e disa kompanive t\u00eb mallrave dhe logjistik\u00ebs, dhe zyrat e disa bankave. Nj\u00eb nd\u00ebrtes\u00eb bie n\u00eb sy m\u00eb tep\u00ebr se t\u00eb tjerat. Pas nj\u00eb fasade oniksi me shk\u00eblqim, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":86412,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[27,85,1,35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-86411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blogu-i-udhetarit","category-histori","category-njoftime-shtypi","category-shoqerore"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/nomismM.jpg?fit=570%2C347&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5Z6wp-mtJ","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":78860,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/pagesat-me-kosto-te-lire-fokus-i-qeverise-shqiptare\/","url_meta":{"origin":86411,"position":0},"title":"Pagesat me kosto t\u00eb lir\u00eb fokus i Qeveris\u00eb Shqiptare.","author":"shqiperia","date":"March 4, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"N\u00eb nj\u00eb podcast t\u00eb kryeministrit t\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb me titull \"Celulari q\u00eb b\u00ebhet kulet\u00eb\", u diskutua mbi revolucionin neo-bankar n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri dhe leht\u00ebsimin e pagesave. T\u00eb ftuar ishin dhe p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsues nga Pago.al, Paysera dhe eReja p\u00ebrkrah kryeministrit t\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb z. Edi Rama dhe zj. 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