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2 Prill 2024<\/p>\n
N\u00ebntorin e kaluar, Banka Qendrore Evropiane (BQE) l\u00ebshoi \u200b\u200bnj\u00eb paralajm\u00ebrim t\u00eb ashp\u00ebr p\u00ebr gjendjen e sektorit t\u00eb pronave komerciale brenda bllokut, si pjes\u00eb e rishikimit t\u00eb saj m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb gjasht\u00ebmujor mbi stabilitetin e p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm financiar.<\/p>\n
Ai tha se kompanit\u00eb evropiane t\u00eb pronave po regjistrojn\u00eb humbje t\u00eb m\u00ebdha dhe borxhet e tyre jan\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb nivel m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb se p\u00ebrpara kriz\u00ebs financiare 2007-2008. K\u00ebto probleme n\u00eb rritje brenda sektorit kan\u00eb\u00a0<\/span>\u201cpotencialin p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrforcuar nj\u00eb skenar t\u00eb pafavorsh\u00ebm\u201d<\/em>, paralajm\u00ebroi ai.<\/p>\n Tingujt e tmerrsh\u00ebm n\u00ebnvizuan se sa serioze jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb gj\u00ebrat brenda sektorit t\u00eb pronave komerciale gjat\u00eb vitit t\u00eb kaluar.<\/p>\n Pyetja q\u00eb shtrohet mbi sektorin n\u00eb vitin 2024 \u00ebsht\u00eb se sa e keqe do t\u00eb b\u00ebhet kriza n\u00eb zhvillim.<\/p>\n Rritja e normave t\u00eb interesit b\u00ebn d\u00ebmin<\/strong> Prona komerciale \u00ebsht\u00eb e lidhur fort me normat e interesit. Kur kostoja e huamarrjes rritet, vlera e pronave komerciale tenton t\u00eb ulet pasi investitor\u00ebt jan\u00eb m\u00eb pak t\u00eb gatsh\u00ebm t\u00eb blejn\u00eb me norma interesi m\u00eb t\u00eb larta.<\/p>\n \u201cUn\u00eb e quaj nj\u00eb rivendosje t\u00eb madhe\u201d<\/em>, tha p\u00ebr DW Sebastiano Ferrante, drejtor menaxhues n\u00eb PGIM Real Estate.\u00a0<\/span>\u201cKjo \u00ebsht\u00eb shpjeguar shum\u00eb thjesht dhe nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb befasuese sepse ne jemi t\u00eb lidhur padyshim me normat e interesit.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n Sidoqoft\u00eb, shkalla e k\u00ebtij rivendosja nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb ende plot\u00ebsisht e dukshme pasi tregu \u00ebsht\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsuar dhe nuk po b\u00ebhen shum\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje.<\/p>\n \u201cShkalla e plot\u00eb e d\u00ebmit nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb par\u00eb ende,\u201d<\/em>\u00a0<\/span>thot\u00eb Slater.\u00a0<\/span>\u201cNuk po njihet n\u00eb indekset e \u00e7mimeve dhe nuk po njihet n\u00eb bilancet bankare n\u00eb mas\u00ebn q\u00eb mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb vijim\u00ebsi\u201d<\/em>.<\/p>\n Sipas grupit amerikan t\u00eb k\u00ebrkimit dhe kompanis\u00eb financiare MSCI, vlera e marr\u00ebveshjeve t\u00eb p\u00ebrfunduara t\u00eb pronave komerciale ka r\u00ebn\u00eb me m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 50% n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara dhe Evrop\u00eb gjat\u00eb 12 muajve t\u00eb fundit, duke sugjeruar q\u00eb pronar\u00ebt po p\u00ebrpiqen t\u00eb shmangin t\u00eb pashmangshmen p\u00ebr aq koh\u00eb sa t\u00eb jet\u00eb e mundur.<\/p>\n Problemi i madh i Gjermanis\u00eb<\/strong> Signa kishte krijuar m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 13 miliard\u00eb euro (14 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb) borxh p\u00ebrmes marr\u00ebveshjeve t\u00eb pronave komerciale n\u00eb vitet e fundit, por rritja e normave t\u00eb interesit e vuri at\u00eb n\u00ebn presion t\u00eb madh pasi u vu n\u00ebn presion p\u00ebr t\u00eb sh\u00ebrbyer kredi t\u00eb shumta.<\/p>\n Nd\u00ebrsa problemet e pronave komerciale shtrihen n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Evrop\u00ebn dhe m\u00eb gjer\u00eb, problemet jan\u00eb ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht t\u00eb theksuara n\u00eb Gjermani. Kompanit\u00eb si Gerch Group, Euroboden dhe Project Immobilien Group jan\u00eb n\u00eb probleme serioze financiare. Rregullatori financiar BaFin paralajm\u00ebroi n\u00eb n\u00ebntor se huadh\u00ebn\u00ebsit e ekspozuar ndaj sektorit duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrgatiten p\u00ebr humbje.<\/p>\n \u201cAjo q\u00eb ishte Spanja pas kriz\u00ebs globale financiare \u2013 e mbivler\u00ebsuar, e mbind\u00ebrtuar \u2013 \u00ebsht\u00eb Gjermania n\u00eb nj\u00eb kuptim tjet\u00ebr sot\u201d<\/em>, thot\u00eb Ferrante e PGIM, e cila \u00ebsht\u00eb e vendosur n\u00eb Frankfurt dhe punon gjer\u00ebsisht n\u00eb tregun gjerman.<\/p>\n Ai beson se gjendja e keqe ekonomike e p\u00ebrgjithshme aktuale e Gjermanis\u00eb, e kombinuar me faktor\u00eb specifik\u00eb q\u00eb kan\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb me tregun e pronave komerciale brenda vendit, do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se ajo \u00ebsht\u00eb ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht e ekspozuar ndaj rritjes s\u00eb normave t\u00eb interesit, r\u00ebnies s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve dhe rritjes s\u00eb ngadalt\u00eb t\u00eb qirave.<\/p>\n \u201cGjermania pati nj\u00eb evolucion relativisht t\u00eb pjerr\u00ebt t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve gjat\u00eb periudh\u00ebs s\u00eb normave t\u00eb ul\u00ebta t\u00eb interesit t\u00eb dekad\u00ebs s\u00eb fundit,\u201d<\/em>\u00a0<\/span>thot\u00eb ai.\u00a0<\/span>\u201cPra, ne pat\u00ebm nj\u00eb fillim m\u00eb t\u00eb ngadalt\u00eb se t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt. Por m\u00eb pas kurba u rrit n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, rregullimi i fort\u00eb i qiras\u00eb n\u00eb Gjermani do t\u00eb thot\u00eb q\u00eb qirat\u00eb nuk jan\u00eb rritur edhe pse investitor\u00ebt kan\u00eb kosto m\u00eb t\u00eb larta p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbushur p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb normave m\u00eb t\u00eb larta t\u00eb interesit.\u00a0<\/span>\u201cN\u00eb thelb rasti i biznesit nuk q\u00ebndron m\u00eb\u201d<\/em>, thot\u00eb ai. Ai pret q\u00eb korrigjimi t\u00eb jet\u00eb\u00a0<\/span>\u201cmjaft i r\u00ebnd\u00eb\u201d<\/em>.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb problem tjet\u00ebr q\u00eb ai sheh n\u00eb Gjermani \u00ebsht\u00eb se sektori i pronave komerciale \u00ebsht\u00eb ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht i varur nga financimi i bankave dhe ai parashikon nj\u00eb munges\u00eb t\u00eb madhe likuiditeti n\u00eb sektor gjat\u00eb viteve t\u00eb ardhshme, pasi bankat p\u00ebrshtaten me rregullore m\u00eb t\u00eb rrepta t\u00eb huadh\u00ebnies.<\/p>\n Zhvendosja e pandemis\u00eb<\/strong> Me gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb njer\u00ebz q\u00eb punojn\u00eb nga sht\u00ebpia q\u00eb nga pandemia, si dhe me nj\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtim t\u00eb tendencave t\u00eb tjera si tregtia elektronike dhe arg\u00ebtimi n\u00eb sht\u00ebpi, disa hap\u00ebsira t\u00eb pronave komerciale si zyrat dhe shitja me pakic\u00eb jan\u00eb m\u00eb pak t\u00eb k\u00ebrkuara se sa ishin para vitit 2020.<\/p>\n \u201cPandemia pati ndikime m\u00eb t\u00eb thella, ndikime afatgjata, dhe p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme p\u00ebr tendencat afatgjata sesa l\u00ebvizja e norm\u00ebs s\u00eb interesit, sepse kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb matematikisht e llogaritshme\u201d<\/em>, thot\u00eb Ferrante.<\/p>\n Ai thot\u00eb se nevojitet m\u00eb shum\u00eb koh\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb par\u00eb se sa i thell\u00eb do t\u00eb jet\u00eb trendi i pun\u00ebs nga sht\u00ebpia, por ai \u00ebsht\u00eb i intriguar nga potenciali i tij p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndryshuar aspektet e sektorit t\u00eb pronave komerciale n\u00eb afat m\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb.<\/p>\n Infektim apo i p\u00ebrmbajtur?<\/strong> Paralajm\u00ebrimet e fundit nga BQE dhe t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt n\u00ebnvizojn\u00eb seriozitetin e situat\u00ebs n\u00eb pronat komerciale, por pak besojn\u00eb se ajo do t\u00eb shnd\u00ebrrohet n\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb financiare t\u00eb plot\u00eb.<\/p>\n Ferrante thot\u00eb se bankat qendrore tani kan\u00eb nj\u00eb pasqyr\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb bilanceve bankare dhe ai beson se kriza do t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbahet.\u00a0<\/span>\u201cJam relativisht i qet\u00eb q\u00eb kjo nuk do t\u00eb jet\u00eb sistematike,\u201d<\/em>\u00a0<\/span>thot\u00eb ai. Megjithat\u00eb, ai beson se vet\u00eb tregu i pronave komerciale \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb rregullimi.<\/p>\n
\nGjat\u00eb periudh\u00ebs s\u00eb normave historikisht t\u00eb ul\u00ebta t\u00eb interesit q\u00eb pasoi kriz\u00ebn financiare, investitor\u00ebt pompuan para n\u00eb pronat tregtare. Megjithat\u00eb, rritja e normave t\u00eb interesit gjat\u00eb dy viteve t\u00eb fundit ka goditur r\u00ebnd\u00eb sektorin pasi vlerat e pronave po bien ndjesh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n
\nMegjithat\u00eb, p\u00ebr disa, stuhia ka ardhur. Signa Holding, kompania austriake e pasurive t\u00eb paluajtshme q\u00eb zot\u00ebron disa nga dyqanet kryesore t\u00eb Gjermanis\u00eb dhe q\u00eb mban nj\u00eb aksion n\u00eb nd\u00ebrtes\u00ebn ikonike Chrysler t\u00eb Nju Jorkut, paraqiti k\u00ebrkes\u00eb p\u00ebr falimentim n\u00eb fund t\u00eb 2023.<\/p>\n
\nNd\u00ebrsa ndryshimi i normave t\u00eb interesit ka dominuar diskursin, ndryshimet themelore t\u00eb lidhura me dinamikat kryesore brenda sektorit erdh\u00ebn me pandemin\u00eb, p\u00ebrkat\u00ebsisht puna nga sht\u00ebpia dhe blerjet n\u00eb internet.<\/p>\n
\nKrizat e pronave kan\u00eb potencialin t\u00eb ndezin nj\u00eb p\u00ebrhapje m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb dhe t\u00eb ekspozojn\u00eb dob\u00ebsi t\u00eb tjera n\u00eb sektorin financiar, si\u00e7 tregoi kriza financiare 2007-2008.<\/p>\n