{"id":73093,"date":"2023-07-30T06:25:51","date_gmt":"2023-07-30T06:25:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/?p=73093"},"modified":"2023-07-30T06:25:51","modified_gmt":"2023-07-30T06:25:51","slug":"teoria-e-kaosit-rrahja-e-kraheve-te-nje-fluture-ndryshon-gjithcka","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/teoria-e-kaosit-rrahja-e-kraheve-te-nje-fluture-ndryshon-gjithcka\/","title":{"rendered":"TEORIA E KAOSIT: – Rrahja e krah\u00ebve t\u00eb nj\u00eb fluture ndryshon gjith\u00e7ka"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

30 Korrik 2023<\/strong><\/p>\n

Secili prej nesh ka nj\u00eb shkall\u00eb t\u00eb caktuar tolerance ndaj pasiguris\u00eb. Duke u nisur nga nj\u00eb prag i caktuar, truri yn\u00eb kalon n\u00eb \u201cmodalitet alarmi\u201d ndaj asaj q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb<\/strong><\/p>\n

Teoria e kaosit \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb ligj i shpallur nga James Yorke dhe q\u00eb na kujton nj\u00eb fakt thelb\u00ebsor: bota nuk ndjek nj\u00eb model t\u00eb sakt\u00eb dhe t\u00eb parashikuesh\u00ebm; duam apo s\u2019duam, n\u00eb jet\u00ebn ton\u00eb ekziston edhe kaosi, kjo hap\u00ebsir\u00eb \u200b\u200be vog\u00ebl q\u00eb i \u00ebsht\u00eb l\u00ebn\u00eb rast\u00ebsis\u00eb, ku \u00ebsht\u00eb thuajse e pamundur t\u00eb parashikosh efektin e ngjarjeve t\u00eb caktuara. \u00cbsht\u00eb mjaft e zakonshme t\u00eb lidhet teoria e kaosit me deg\u00ebt e saj m\u00ebm\u00eb: matematika dhe fizika. Megjithat\u00eb, shpesh harrojm\u00eb se k\u00ebto shkenca kan\u00eb nj\u00eb implikim t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb n\u00eb jet\u00ebn ton\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrditshme, n\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb ka shum\u00eb pak sektor\u00eb q\u00eb kan\u00eb ndikim t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00eb n\u00eb sjelljen dhe njohurit\u00eb tona. Vet\u00eb James Yorke e p\u00ebrmbledh r\u00ebnd\u00ebsin\u00eb e teoris\u00eb s\u00eb tij n\u00eb nj\u00eb fjali t\u00eb thjesht\u00eb: njeriu duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb i p\u00ebrgatitur p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndryshuar planet n\u00eb \u00e7do moment.<\/p>\n

Secili prej nesh ka nj\u00eb shkall\u00eb t\u00eb caktuar tolerance ndaj pasiguris\u00eb. Duke u nisur nga nj\u00eb prag i caktuar, truri yn\u00eb kalon n\u00eb \u201cmodalitet alarmi\u201d ndaj asaj q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb. Ne preferojm\u00eb stabilitetin, duke ditur se dy plus dy jan\u00eb kat\u00ebr dhe se ajo q\u00eb na rrethon dhe kemi sot do t\u00eb jet\u00eb aty edhe n\u00eb t\u00eb nes\u00ebrmen ton\u00eb. E gjith\u00eb kjo na ofron nj\u00eb ekuilib\u00ebr emocional fal\u00eb t\u00eb cilit jemi n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb shijojm\u00eb jet\u00ebn, duke mbajtur gjith\u00e7ka n\u00ebn kontroll. Megjithat\u00eb, teoria e kaosit mbron nj\u00eb prov\u00eb. Jeta dhe rrjedha e saj nuk korrespondojn\u00eb me ecurin\u00eb ritmike dhe t\u00eb p\u00ebrsosur t\u00eb nj\u00eb ore. T\u00eb paparashikueshmet dhe t\u00eb pakontrollueshmet gjenden gjithmon\u00eb brenda dhe rreth nesh.<\/p>\n

\u00cbsht\u00eb ajo shpata e Damokleut q\u00eb mund t\u00eb na godas\u00eb n\u00eb \u00e7do moment. \u00cbsht\u00eb ajo flutura q\u00eb sot fluturon mbi Shtetet e Bashkuara dhe m\u00eb von\u00eb mb\u00ebrrin n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb n\u00eb form\u00ebn e nj\u00eb krize ekonomike. \u00cbsht\u00eb ai topi i bardh\u00eb q\u00eb ne godit\u00ebm n\u00eb bilardo dhe q\u00eb godet topat e tjer\u00eb duke i b\u00ebr\u00eb ata t\u00eb l\u00ebvizin, ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb n\u00eb drejtime t\u00eb papritura\u2026<\/p>\n

TEORIA E KAOSIT<\/p>\n

Teoria e kaosit na thot\u00eb se rezultati i nj\u00eb ngjarjeje varet nga disa variabla: ato, sjellja e t\u00eb cil\u00ebve nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithmon\u00eb e parashikueshme me sakt\u00ebsi totale. Gjithmon\u00eb ka nj\u00eb kufi p\u00ebr gabim, nj\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00eb \u200b\u200bp\u00ebr kaos, nj\u00eb val\u00ebvitje q\u00eb ndryshon gjith\u00e7ka n\u00eb momentin e fundit. Sepse, ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb, nj\u00eb ndryshim i vog\u00ebl gjeneron nj\u00eb efekt t\u00eb p\u00ebrmasave t\u00eb m\u00ebdha. Ka nga ata q\u00eb argumentojn\u00eb se teoria e kaosit \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb nga fushat m\u00eb t\u00eb mrekullueshme t\u00eb matematik\u00ebs moderne. Ajo shkenc\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb parashikoj\u00eb sjelljen e sistemeve n\u00eb thelb t\u00eb paparashikueshme. Ne mund t\u00eb imagjinojm\u00eb reagimet ndaj k\u00ebsaj teorie pasi, deri von\u00eb, q\u00ebllimi i bot\u00ebs shkencore ishte t\u00eb eliminonte variablin e pasiguris\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb ishte n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkruante me sakt\u00ebsi sjelljen e pothuajse \u00e7do gj\u00ebje.<\/p>\n

Megjithat\u00eb, n\u00eb dit\u00ebt e sotme ne e pranojm\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb diferenc\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn rast\u00ebsia dhe e paparashikueshmja, n\u00eb nj\u00eb moment t\u00eb caktuar, mund t\u00eb ndryshojn\u00eb gjith\u00e7ka. Kjo, n\u00eb fakt, u zbulua nga meteorologu dhe matematikani Edward Lorenz n\u00eb vitin 1961, kur ai u p\u00ebrpoq t\u00eb krijonte nj\u00eb sistem kompjuterik p\u00ebr t\u00eb parashikuar motin. Papritur ai kuptoi se, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb nj\u00eb gabimi t\u00eb p\u00ebrafrimit n\u00eb numra, i gjith\u00eb sistemi kishte filluar t\u00eb shfaqte sjellje qart\u00ebsisht t\u00eb paparashikueshme. M\u00eb von\u00eb kjo p\u00ebrvoj\u00eb u p\u00ebrdor p\u00ebr t\u00eb formuluar efektin e famsh\u00ebm t\u00eb flutur\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

KAOSI \u00cbSHT\u00cb VAZHDIMISHT MES NESH<\/p>\n

Fenomenet kaotike jan\u00eb t\u00eb shumta jo vet\u00ebm n\u00eb natyr\u00eb, por edhe n\u00eb biologji. Nuk ka asnj\u00eb zon\u00eb t\u00eb lir\u00eb nga kjo sjellje e paparashikueshme. Dukurit\u00eb kaotike ndodhin \u00e7do dit\u00eb pothuajse pa e kuptuar: n\u00eb ekonomi, termodinamik\u00eb, astronomi dhe madje edhe psikologji. Tani e dim\u00eb se \u00e7do shqet\u00ebsim i vog\u00ebl n\u00eb trurin ton\u00eb (si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb ndryshim n\u00eb nj\u00eb neurotransmetues) mund t\u00eb rezultoj\u00eb n\u00eb ndryshime shum\u00eb dramatike n\u00eb sjellje. Teoria e kaosit pranohet edhe n\u00eb psikiatri. Ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb kur pacientit i jepet nj\u00eb ila\u00e7, ekziston nj\u00eb shans i vog\u00ebl q\u00eb efekti i v\u00ebrejtur t\u00eb jet\u00eb i kund\u00ebrt nga ai i pritur.<\/p>\n

\u201cL\u00ebvizja e krah\u00ebve t\u00eb nj\u00eb fluture mund t\u00eb shkaktoj\u00eb nj\u00eb uragan n\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb bot\u00ebs\u201d- Proverb kinez.<\/p>\n

SI T\u00cb ZBATOHET TEORIA E KAOSIT N\u00cb JET\u00cbN E P\u00cbRDITSHME?<\/p>\n

N\u00eb jet\u00ebn ton\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrditshme t\u00eb gjith\u00eb duhet t\u00eb shmangim kaosin. Vet\u00ebm k\u00ebshtu ndihemi t\u00eb sigurt, vet\u00ebm k\u00ebshtu mund t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtojm\u00eb nj\u00eb jet\u00eb ku e parashikueshmja do t\u00eb na lejoj\u00eb t\u00eb largohemi nga sht\u00ebpia pa frik\u00eb dhe t\u00eb jemi n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb shikojm\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen me besim. Si\u00e7 na shpjegon James Yorke, babai i k\u00ebsaj teorie, gj\u00ebja m\u00eb e mir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb jesh gati p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndryshuar planet n\u00eb \u00e7do moment. Ky parim \u00ebsht\u00eb i lidhur ngusht\u00eb me nj\u00eb teori tjet\u00ebr aktuale. Po flasim p\u00ebr teorin\u00eb e mjellm\u00ebs s\u00eb zez\u00eb, t\u00eb formuluar nga eseisti, ekonomisti dhe matematikani Nassim Nicholas Taleb. N\u00eb librin e tij interesant, i cili mban t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin em\u00ebr me teorin\u00eb, ai na kujton se shumica prej nesh i n\u00ebnshtrohen nj\u00eb bot\u00ebkuptimi ku gjith\u00e7ka, n\u00eb pamje t\u00eb par\u00eb, duket e parashikueshme. Megjithat\u00eb, n\u00eb nj\u00eb moment t\u00eb caktuar lind e papritura, e paparashikueshmja, kaotikja\u2026 ajo er\u00eb q\u00eb nuk e prisnim. Nj\u00eb ngjarje e paparashikueshme q\u00eb jemi t\u00eb detyruar ta pranojm\u00eb dhe ta racionalizojm\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Megjithat\u00eb, duhet th\u00ebn\u00eb se n\u00eb vend q\u00eb t\u00eb veprojm\u00eb vet\u00ebm kur ky kaos shpaloset para syve tan\u00eb, duhet t\u00eb jemi t\u00eb p\u00ebrgatitur. James Yorke na kujton se njer\u00ebzit q\u00eb arrijn\u00eb sukses dhe lumturi jan\u00eb ata q\u00eb kan\u00eb gjithmon\u00eb nj\u00eb plan \u201cB\u201d n\u00eb dor\u00eb. Le t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqemi t\u00eb zhvillojm\u00eb nj\u00eb mentalitet fleksib\u00ebl dhe nj\u00eb qasje ku nuk reagojm\u00eb vet\u00ebm ndaj ngjarjeve. Le t\u2019i p\u00ebrqafojm\u00eb me kuriozitet dhe pranim, sepse shum\u00eb her\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb kaos q\u00eb lindin mund\u00ebsit\u00eb. N\u00eb fund, t\u00eb jesh i p\u00ebrgatitur p\u00ebr t\u00eb papriturat do t\u00eb thot\u00eb t\u00eb kalosh n\u00ebp\u00ebr t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtat ulje dhe ngritje t\u00eb jet\u00ebs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

30 Korrik 2023 Secili prej nesh ka nj\u00eb shkall\u00eb t\u00eb caktuar tolerance ndaj pasiguris\u00eb. Duke u nisur nga nj\u00eb prag i caktuar, truri yn\u00eb kalon n\u00eb \u201cmodalitet alarmi\u201d ndaj asaj q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb Teoria e kaosit \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb ligj i shpallur nga James Yorke dhe q\u00eb na kujton nj\u00eb fakt thelb\u00ebsor: bota nuk ndjek […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":73094,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[27,14,35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-73093","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blogu-i-udhetarit","category-press-releases","category-shoqerore"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/butterfly-in-the-flower-wallpaper-1280x800_3.jpg?fit=1280%2C800&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5Z6wp-j0V","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":100155,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/kullat-e-boshta-dhe-xhepat-e-zbrazet-pied-a-terre-ne-tirane\/","url_meta":{"origin":73093,"position":0},"title":"Kullat e boshta dhe xhepat e zbraz\u00ebt: – Pied-\u00e0-terre n\u00eb Tiran\u00eb","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"May 12, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"12 Maji 2026 Nga: Adrian Thano Ekuilibri \u00ebsht\u00eb zgjidhja. Nj\u00eb shoq\u00ebri e sh\u00ebndetshme nuk duhet as t\u00eb adhuroj\u00eb miliarder\u00ebt si per\u00ebndi dhe as t\u2019i trajtoj\u00eb k\u00ebta si armiq publik\u00eb. Pasuria duhet t\u00eb mbaj\u00eb p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebsi, taksa duhet t\u00eb mbetet instrument ekonomie. K\u00ebtu vijm\u00eb te p\u00ebrshtatja e k\u00ebtij debati n\u00eb aktualitetin shqiptar.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit"","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot_20260511_134013_Gallery.jpg?fit=720%2C494&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot_20260511_134013_Gallery.jpg?fit=720%2C494&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot_20260511_134013_Gallery.jpg?fit=720%2C494&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot_20260511_134013_Gallery.jpg?fit=720%2C494&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":100111,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/e-shnderroi-shtepine-ne-berat-ne-muze-artizania-tefta-qose-500-kostume-popullore-puna-e-nje-jete\/","url_meta":{"origin":73093,"position":1},"title":"E shnd\u00ebrroi sht\u00ebpin\u00eb n\u00eb Berat n\u00eb muze, artizania Tefta Qose: – 500 kostume popullore, puna e nj\u00eb jete","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"May 11, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"11 Mars 2026 N\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb kur shum\u00eb tradita rrezikojn\u00eb t\u00eb harrohen, Tefta Qose vazhdon t\u00eb mbaj\u00eb gjall\u00eb artin e krijimit t\u00eb veshjeve popullore. 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Sipas\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit"","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/argjentine-hantavirusi-1140x570-1.jpg?fit=1140%2C570&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/argjentine-hantavirusi-1140x570-1.jpg?fit=1140%2C570&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/argjentine-hantavirusi-1140x570-1.jpg?fit=1140%2C570&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/argjentine-hantavirusi-1140x570-1.jpg?fit=1140%2C570&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/argjentine-hantavirusi-1140x570-1.jpg?fit=1140%2C570&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73093","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=73093"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73093\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":73095,"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73093\/revisions\/73095"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/73094"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=73093"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=73093"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=73093"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}