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23 Nentor 2022<\/p>\n
Nga Tim Brinkhof
\nDiku rreth vitit 193 Para Er\u00ebs Son\u00eb, gjenerali i famsh\u00ebm romak, Shipion Afrini, udh\u00ebhoqi nj\u00eb delegacion nga Qyteti i P\u00ebrjetsh\u00ebm n\u00eb Sirin\u00eb e sotme p\u00ebr t\u2019i th\u00ebn\u00eb mbretit t\u00eb saj, Antiokut III, t\u00eb mos tentonte t\u00eb prekte territoret e Greqis\u00eb. P\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb histori, ky rajon i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm kulturor dhe ekonomik, kishte r\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00ebn kontrollin e italian\u00ebve pas nj\u00eb s\u00ebr\u00eb luft\u00ebrash me Maqedonin\u00eb, dhe romak\u00ebt nuk donin t\u00eb hiqnin dor\u00eb prej saj.<\/p>\n
I pranish\u00ebm n\u00eb oborrin sirian pas mb\u00ebrritjes s\u00eb delegacionit romak ishte Hanibali, komandanti i m\u00ebrguar i luft\u00ebs, q\u00eb vite m\u00eb par\u00eb kishte mbrojtur qytetin e pasur t\u00eb Kartagjen\u00ebs kund\u00ebr ushtris\u00eb romake dhe n\u00eb luft\u00ebrat me t\u00eb gati e rrafshoi Republik\u00ebn para se t\u00eb mposhtej nga Skipioni.<\/p>\n
Pra lufta ishte hera e fundit q\u00eb k\u00ebta dy burra u p\u00ebrball\u00ebn me nj\u00ebri-tjetrin. K\u00ebt\u00eb her\u00eb, q\u00eb t\u00eb dy ishin mysafir\u00eb t\u00eb ulur n\u00eb tryez\u00ebn e Antiokut, nj\u00eb rast\u00ebsi tejet e rrall\u00eb q\u00eb solli nj\u00eb bised\u00eb po aq t\u00eb pabesueshme. Duke biseduar n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb miq\u00ebsore gjat\u00eb dark\u00ebs, Shipioni e pyeti Hanibalin se kush mendonte se ishte gjenerali m\u00eb i madh i t\u00eb gjitha koh\u00ebrave.<\/p>\n
Hanibali renditi t\u00eb parin Aleksandrin e Madh, pasuar nga Pirro i Epirit dhe t\u00eb tretin renditi Shipionin. Tek e fundit kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb anekdot\u00eb q\u00eb sado magjeps\u00ebse, nuk ndikoi n\u00eb rrjedh\u00ebn e historis\u00eb n\u00eb ndonj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb dukshme ose dometh\u00ebn\u00ebse. Por nuk mund t\u00eb thuhet e nj\u00ebjta gj\u00eb p\u00ebr incidente t\u00eb tjera \u201ct\u00eb rast\u00ebsishme\u201d q\u00eb ndodh\u00ebn n\u00eb t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb rasti i pushtimit t\u00eb d\u00ebshtuar t\u00eb Tajvanit nga Partia Komuniste e Kin\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Si e shp\u00ebtuan k\u00ebrmijt\u00eb Tajvanin<\/strong> P\u00ebr t\u2019u p\u00ebrgatitur p\u00ebr zbarkimin, 30.000-50.000 ushtar\u00eb komunist\u00eb kaluan jav\u00eb t\u00eb t\u00ebra duke u st\u00ebrvitur n\u00eb kanalet jugore t\u00eb Zhejiangut dhe n\u00eb veri t\u00eb Fujianit. Por pa dijenin\u00eb e tyre, k\u00ebto kanale ishin t\u00eb mbushur me k\u00ebrmij q\u00eb mbartnin nj\u00eb virus q\u00eb kur i infekton njer\u00ebzit, shkaktonte ethe, kollitje t\u00eb fort\u00eb, dhimbje muskujsh dhe urinim t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjakur, mes disa simptomave t\u00eb tjera.<\/p>\n Brenda nat\u00ebs, forcat pushtuese komuniste dol\u00ebn jasht\u00eb kontrollit. Kur mb\u00ebrrit\u00ebn ila\u00e7et n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet rrjeteve tregtare t\u00eb d\u00ebmtuara r\u00ebnd\u00eb t\u00eb vendit, Ngushtica e Tajvanit nisi t\u00eb ruhej nga luftanijet amerikane, duke hedhur n\u00eb er\u00eb \u00e7do plan p\u00ebr nj\u00eb pushtim t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb k\u00ebrmijt\u00eb, dhe m\u00eb gjer\u00ebsisht rast\u00ebsia diktuan panoram\u00ebn gjeopolitike ku jetojm\u00eb sot.<\/p>\n Ligjet e veprimit njer\u00ebzor<\/strong> Kur shkenc\u00ebtar\u00eb si Isak Njutoni m\u00ebsuan se kozmosi u bindej disa ligjeve t\u00eb fizik\u00ebs, historian\u00ebt filluan t\u00eb k\u00ebrkonin ligjet e tyre. Besimi tek k\u00ebto ligje, i parapriu d\u00ebshmive bind\u00ebse p\u00ebr ekzistenc\u00ebn e tyre. \u201cNdryshimet e m\u00ebdha, duket se kan\u00eb ndodhur me nj\u00ebfar\u00eb pashmangshm\u00ebrie. Duket se ka pasur nj\u00eb prirje t\u00eb pavarur ngjarjesh, nj\u00eb domosdoshm\u00ebri e paepur q\u00eb e kontrollon p\u00ebrparimin e pun\u00ebve njer\u00ebzore\u2026\u201d- shkroi Eduard P.\u00c7eni n\u00eb vitin 1927, n\u00eb nj\u00eb nga eset\u00eb e tij t\u00eb shumta.<\/p>\n Studiues t\u00eb tjer\u00eb kan\u00eb p\u00ebrdorur fjal\u00eb t\u00eb ndryshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkruar t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn ide. Megjithat\u00eb as historia, as sociologjia dhe as ekonomia, nuk kan\u00eb arritur ende t\u00eb ofrojn\u00eb nj\u00eb teori t\u00eb vetme, mbizot\u00ebruese, t\u00eb pakund\u00ebrshtueshme t\u00eb zhvillimit njer\u00ebzor.<\/p>\n P\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb k\u00ebtij d\u00ebshtimi, nuk mund t\u00eb mos pyesim veten pse kemi nj\u00eb kuptim rudimentar t\u00eb di\u00e7kaje si Big Bangu, nd\u00ebrsa mekanika e historis\u00eb vazhdon q\u00eb t\u00eb debatohet kaq shum\u00eb. Duke reflektuar mbi marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet midis historis\u00eb dhe kozmologjis\u00eb, gjeologu Uollter Alvarez argumenton se jeta \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb thelb e paparashikueshme. \u201cPamja e agjent\u00ebve t\u00eb gjall\u00eb e \u00e7oi planetin ton\u00eb p\u00ebrtej sfer\u00ebs s\u00eb fazave, p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilat fizikan\u00ebt mund t\u00eb zbulojn\u00eb ligjet natyrore \u2013 plazmat, gazet, l\u00ebngjet dhe trupat e ngurt\u00eb \u2013 duke sjell\u00eb materien e organizuar n\u00eb m\u00ebnyra shum\u00eb m\u00eb komplekse\u201d- thekson ai.<\/p>\n Historia sipas numrave<\/strong> N\u00eb vend se t\u00eb studionte burimet primare, Tur\u00e7in dhe ekipi i tij punojn\u00eb me bazat e t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave historike si \u201cSeshat: Global History Databank\u201d, nj\u00eb burim q\u00eb p\u00ebrmban t\u00eb dh\u00ebna numerike p\u00ebr m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 400 shoq\u00ebri. Tur\u00e7ini e p\u00ebrdor k\u00ebt\u00eb informacion, q\u00eb p\u00ebrfshin \u00e7do gj\u00eb nga madh\u00ebsia e popullsis\u00eb deri te prodhimi industrial vjetor, p\u00ebr t\u00eb k\u00ebrkuar modele n\u00eb rrjedh\u00ebn komplekse t\u00eb zhvillimit njer\u00ebzor.<\/p>\n Duke u mb\u00ebshtetur kryesisht tek llogaritjet matematikore, Tur\u00e7ini mund t\u00eb prodhoj\u00eb prova m\u00eb bind\u00ebse sesa historian\u00ebt e zakonsh\u00ebm. P\u00ebr shembull, nj\u00eb nga studimet e tij identifikoi madh\u00ebsin\u00eb e popullsis\u00eb dhe teknologjin\u00eb para-ekzistuese si faktor\u00ebt m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm p\u00ebr risin\u00eb e teknologjis\u00eb ushtarake.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr studim nxori n\u00eb pah se lufta, dhe sidomos forcat kalorsiake dhe arm\u00ebt prej hekuri, u dhan\u00eb mund\u00ebsin\u00eb shoq\u00ebrive t\u00eb b\u00ebheshin m\u00eb komplekse. Duke i b\u00ebr\u00eb jehon\u00eb pozitivizmit shkencor dhe zellit fetar t\u00eb \u00c7enit, Kliodinamika sugjeron se vazhdim\u00ebsia historike e tejkalon tej mase gjendjen e jasht\u00ebzakonshme historike.<\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, projektet e tij edhe pse ambicioze dhe magjeps\u00ebse, kan\u00eb hasur n\u00eb skepticiz\u00ebm. Zakonisht, ky skepticiz\u00ebm ka t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb me baz\u00ebn e t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave, t\u00eb cilat ashtu si vet\u00eb e kaluara mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb rast\u00ebsishme sesa mendojm\u00eb ne. \/\u201cBig Think\u201d \u2013 Bota.al\/<\/p>\n
\nGjat\u00eb Luft\u00ebs Civile Kineze, e cila zgjati nga viti 1927 deri n\u00eb vitin 1950, dhe u zhvillua midis komunist\u00ebve dhe nacionalist\u00ebve, gati 2 milion\u00eb njer\u00ebz q\u00eb i p\u00ebrkisnin fraksionit t\u00eb fundit u zhvendos\u00ebn n\u00eb Tajvan. M\u00eb t\u00eb shumt\u00eb n\u00eb num\u00ebr sesa armiku i tyre pothuajse i mundur, komunist\u00ebt nuk humb\u00ebn koh\u00eb dhe nis\u00ebn p\u00ebrgatitjen p\u00ebr nj\u00eb sulm amfib ndaj ishullit aty pran\u00eb.<\/p>\n
\nNgjarje t\u00eb tilla v\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb dyshim konceptin se historia shpaloset sipas parimeve t\u00eb vazhdueshme dhe t\u00eb v\u00ebzhgueshme. Ky nocion, i lidhur ngusht\u00eb me besimin dhe fen\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb po aq i vjet\u00ebr sa vet\u00eb njer\u00ebzimi, dhe u b\u00eb shum\u00eb popullor gjat\u00eb Iluminizmit.<\/p>\n
\nAshtu si\u00e7 ligjet e fizik\u00ebs q\u00eb shprehen n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet matematik\u00ebs, edhe t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e pap\u00ebrpunuara mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsojn\u00eb kuptueshm\u00ebrin\u00eb ton\u00eb mbi t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn. Udh\u00ebheq\u00ebs i k\u00ebsaj qasje ndaj historis\u00eb \u2013 i njohur n\u00eb qarqet akademike si Kliodinamika, pas muz\u00ebs greke t\u00eb historis\u00eb Klio \u2013 \u00ebsht\u00eb Peter Tur\u00e7in, studiues ruso-amerikan q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb kryeredaktor i \u201cThe Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution\u201d.<\/p>\n