{"id":62690,"date":"2022-09-26T05:57:36","date_gmt":"2022-09-26T05:57:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/?p=62690"},"modified":"2022-09-26T05:57:36","modified_gmt":"2022-09-26T05:57:36","slug":"the-economist-europa-po-shkon-drejt-recesionit-sa-i-rende-do-te-jete","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/the-economist-europa-po-shkon-drejt-recesionit-sa-i-rende-do-te-jete\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201dThe Economist\u201d: – Europa po shkon drejt recesionit, sa i r\u00ebnd\u00eb do t\u00eb jet\u00eb?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

26 Shtator 2022<\/p>\n

Shenjat paralajm\u00ebruese jan\u00eb tashm\u00eb t\u00eb dukshme. Lufta e Rusis\u00eb ndaj Ukrain\u00ebs, rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbja e pabarabart\u00eb nga pandemia Covid-19 dhe that\u00ebsira \u200b\u200bn\u00eb pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb kontinentit, kan\u00eb krijuar s\u00eb bashku nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00eb energjetike, inflacion t\u00eb lart\u00eb, nd\u00ebrprerje t\u00eb furnizimit dhe pasiguri t\u00eb madhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb ardhmen ekonomike t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs.
\nQeverit\u00eb po p\u00ebrpiqen t\u00eb ndihmojn\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb rrezikuarit. Mes k\u00ebtij konfuzioni nervor, t\u00eb gjith\u00eb pajtohen p\u00ebr di\u00e7ka: recesioni po afron.<\/p>\n

Fakti se sa e r\u00ebnd\u00eb do t\u00eb jet\u00eb r\u00ebnia, varet nga m\u00ebnyra se si do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb goditja energjetike dhe si do t\u2019i p\u00ebrgjigjen asaj politik\u00ebb\u00ebr\u00ebsit.<\/p>\n

S\u00eb fundmi, \u00e7mimet e energjis\u00eb arrit\u00ebn maja dikur t\u00eb paimagjinueshme: m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 290 euro (291 dollar\u00eb) p\u00ebr megavat\/or\u00eb (mwh) p\u00ebr gazin standard, q\u00eb do t\u00eb shp\u00ebrndahej n\u00eb tremujorin e kat\u00ebrt t\u00eb vitit (\u00e7mimi i zakonsh\u00ebm para pandemis\u00eb ishte rreth 30 \u20ac); dhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 1200 \u20ac p\u00ebr mwh p\u00ebr energjin\u00eb elektrike, p\u00ebr t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin tremujor n\u00eb Gjermani (nga rreth 60 \u20ac).<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr shkak se gazi \u00ebsht\u00eb karburanti margjinal n\u00eb shumic\u00ebn e tregjeve europiane t\u00eb energjis\u00eb elektrike, ai p\u00ebrcakton edhe \u00e7mimin e energjis\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Ekonomia europiane hyri n\u00eb kriz\u00eb, n\u00eb nj\u00eb pozicion deri diku t\u00eb fort\u00eb. Tregu i pun\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb ende relativisht i sh\u00ebndetsh\u00ebm, me papun\u00ebsi n\u00eb 6.6%, \u00e7ka n\u00ebnkupton, sipas standardeve mediokre t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs, se ekonomia \u00ebsht\u00eb af\u00ebr pun\u00ebsimit t\u00eb plot\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Rritja e pagave me siguri do t\u00eb rritet n\u00eb muajt e ardhsh\u00ebm, pasi kontratat afatgjata do t\u00eb rinegociohen. Besimi i konsumator\u00ebve ra n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb luft\u00ebs, por jo konsumi. Pritshm\u00ebrit\u00eb p\u00ebr inflacionin jan\u00eb ulur disi.<\/p>\n

Perspektiva e zymt\u00eb<\/strong><\/p>\n

Megjithat\u00eb, gj\u00ebrat do t\u00eb jen\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb zymta pas disa muajsh, p\u00ebr tre arsye. S\u00eb pari, industria \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebn trysni. N\u00eb pranver\u00eb, drejtuesit e prodhuesve m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdhenj t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs argumentuan se nd\u00ebrprerja e furnizimit me gaz rus, shum\u00eb shpejt do t\u00eb sillte kriz\u00eb ekonomike n\u00eb kontinent.<\/p>\n

Pavar\u00ebsisht \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb larta, prodhimi industrial deri tani ka mbetur i fort\u00eb.\u00a0<\/span>\u201cNj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e arsyes \u00ebsht\u00eb se firmat ende po punojn\u00eb me porosit\u00eb e mbetura nga e kaluara\u201d,<\/em>\u00a0<\/span>thot\u00eb Michael H\u00fcther nga Instituti Ekonomik Gjerman.<\/p>\n

Por k\u00ebta faktor\u00eb nuk do t\u00eb zgjasin p\u00ebrgjithmon\u00eb dhe disa tregues t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm largpam\u00ebs jan\u00eb t\u00eb zymt\u00eb. \u201cPorosit\u00eb e reja kan\u00eb r\u00ebn\u00eb ndjesh\u00ebm\u201d, thot\u00eb Robin Brooks, nga Instituti i Financave Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, i cili p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebson bankat dhe investitor\u00ebt institucional\u00eb.<\/p>\n

R\u00ebnia reflekton dob\u00ebsim t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb globale dhe n\u00eb ve\u00e7anti, asaj kineze. Si\u00e7 v\u00ebren zoti Brooks, r\u00ebnia mund t\u00eb sh\u00ebnoj\u00eb nj\u00eb pik\u00eb kthese n\u00eb ciklin ekonomik.<\/p>\n

Industrit\u00eb e prekura m\u00eb keq ndoshta do t\u00eb jen\u00eb ato n\u00eb lindje t\u00eb lumit Rin. Sondazhet e fundit t\u00eb shefave industrial\u00eb n\u00eb Gjermani dhe Austri, tregojn\u00eb se pritet nj\u00eb tkurrje. Var\u00ebsia e madhe e Gjermanis\u00eb nga bler\u00ebsit kinez\u00eb, rrezikon t\u00eb ul\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn p\u00ebr mallra n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb zinxhirin e furnizimit teutonik.<\/p>\n

Industria italiane duket se po p\u00ebrjeton r\u00ebnie t\u00eb lir\u00eb. Polonia dhe Republika \u00c7eke, t\u00eb dyja jasht\u00eb Eurozon\u00ebs, jan\u00eb gjithashtu t\u00eb rrezikuara.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrjashtim b\u00ebn Hungaria, ku prodhimi po zgjerohet me ritme t\u00eb sh\u00ebndetshme, fal\u00eb investimit t\u00eb baterive, bumit t\u00eb automjeteve elektrike dhe kontratave afatgjata t\u00eb energjis\u00eb (edhe pse disa prej tyre s\u00eb shpejti do t\u00eb mbyllen).<\/p>\n

Arsyeja e dyt\u00eb p\u00ebr perspektiv\u00ebn e zymt\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb se shpenzimet e konsumator\u00ebve p\u00ebr sh\u00ebrbime, me v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsi do t\u00eb arrijn\u00eb t\u00eb mbajn\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebmb\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb e kontinentit.<\/p>\n

I nxitur nga nj\u00eb sezon i fort\u00eb turistik n\u00eb Franc\u00eb dhe n\u00eb jug t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs, pasi pushuesit p\u00ebrdor\u00ebn me boll\u00ebk kursimet e ruajtura gjat\u00eb pandemis\u00eb, turizmi u rrit shum\u00eb gjat\u00eb ver\u00ebs. Por kjo prirje do t\u00eb bjer\u00eb, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb konsumator\u00ebt fillojn\u00eb t\u00eb kursejn\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u p\u00ebrgatitur p\u00ebr nj\u00eb dim\u00ebr t\u00eb gjat\u00eb e t\u00eb ftoht\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Sh\u00ebrbimet ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb ngecin n\u00eb muajt e ardhsh\u00ebm dhe pronat e paluajtshme dhe transporti, do t\u00eb p\u00ebrballen me v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsi t\u00eb r\u00ebnda, sipas indeksit t\u00eb menaxher\u00ebve t\u00eb blerjeve n\u00eb S&P Global.<\/p>\n

S\u00eb fundmi, n\u00eb Europ\u00eb, goditja energjetike do t\u00eb p\u00ebrkoj\u00eb me rritjen e normave t\u00eb interesit. Duke n\u00ebnvler\u00ebsuar rritjen e \u00e7mimeve ashtu si shum\u00eb banka t\u00eb tjera qendrore, BQE tani \u00ebsht\u00eb e vendosur t\u00eb rikthej\u00eb inflacionin vjetor n\u00eb objektivin prej 2%, nga shifra alarmante prej 9.1%, e regjistruar n\u00eb gusht. Isabel Schnabel, an\u00ebtare e bordit t\u00eb bank\u00ebs, paralajm\u00ebroi se ekonomia do t\u00eb p\u00ebsoj\u00eb edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb dhimbje.<\/p>\n

Reagimi i BQE-s\u00eb<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ekonomist\u00ebt presin q\u00eb BQE-ja t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb forcoj\u00eb kredencialet n\u00eb luft\u00ebn kund\u00ebr inflacionit, me rritje t\u00eb konsiderueshme t\u00eb normave t\u00eb interesit n\u00eb takimin e ardhsh\u00ebm m\u00eb 8 shtator, duke i rritur ndoshta normat me tre t\u00eb kat\u00ebrtat e nj\u00eb pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjeje.<\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, yield-et e obligacioneve europiane afatshkurtra dhe afatgjata, jan\u00eb rritur gjat\u00eb muajit t\u00eb kaluar.<\/p>\n

Pavar\u00ebsisht k\u00ebsaj, euro ka vazhduar t\u00eb bjer\u00eb, duke u barazuar me Dollarin p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb dy dekada.<\/p>\n

Kjo pasqyron nj\u00eb perspektiv\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00eb p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb e Europ\u00ebs dhe rrezikon q\u00eb investitor\u00ebt global\u00eb t\u00eb drejtohen diku tjet\u00ebr p\u00ebr siguri.<\/p>\n

\u00cbsht\u00eb edhe shqet\u00ebsimi se nj\u00eb monedh\u00eb m\u00eb e dob\u00ebt nxit inflacionin n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet importeve m\u00eb t\u00eb shtrenjta, duke goditur t\u00eb ardhurat reale dhe rrjedhimisht, edhe konsumin.<\/p>\n

E gjith\u00eb kjo tregon se \u00ebsht\u00eb e sigurt q\u00eb ekonomia europiane do t\u00eb hyj\u00eb n\u00eb recesion, ku m\u00eb shum\u00eb do t\u00eb vuajn\u00eb Gjermania, Italia dhe Europa Qendrore dhe Lindore.<\/p>\n

Analist\u00ebt n\u00eb bank\u00ebn JP Morgan Chase parashikojn\u00eb norma vjetore rritjeje prej -2% p\u00ebr Eurozon\u00ebn n\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00ebsi n\u00eb tremujorin e kat\u00ebrt t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti, -2.5% p\u00ebr Franc\u00ebn dhe Gjermanin\u00eb dhe -3% p\u00ebr Italin\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Problemet dhe borxhet e larta t\u00eb Italis\u00eb mund t\u00eb shkaktojn\u00eb shqet\u00ebsime n\u00eb tregjet e bonove t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs. Politikan\u00ebt europian\u00eb, deri tani, kan\u00eb shpenzuar shum\u00eb koh\u00eb, duke menduar se si duhet t\u00eb reagojn\u00eb ndaj rritjes s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb energjis\u00eb. S\u00eb shpejti, ata mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrballen me nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe.<\/p>\n

Gazeta Dita<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

26 Shtator 2022 Shenjat paralajm\u00ebruese jan\u00eb tashm\u00eb t\u00eb dukshme. Lufta e Rusis\u00eb ndaj Ukrain\u00ebs, rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbja e pabarabart\u00eb nga pandemia Covid-19 dhe that\u00ebsira \u200b\u200bn\u00eb pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb kontinentit, kan\u00eb krijuar s\u00eb bashku nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00eb energjetike, inflacion t\u00eb lart\u00eb, nd\u00ebrprerje t\u00eb furnizimit dhe pasiguri t\u00eb madhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb ardhmen ekonomike t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs. Qeverit\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":62691,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[27,35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-62690","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blogu-i-udhetarit","category-shoqerore"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/640-0-f5c8b2926f8cb37ab9b64030137180aa.jpg?fit=640%2C360&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5Z6wp-gj8","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":105956,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/finlanda-ne-gatishmeri-mijera-qytetare-marrin-pjese-ne-stervitje-per-kercenime-nga-rusia\/","url_meta":{"origin":62690,"position":0},"title":"Finlanda n\u00eb gatishm\u00ebri, mij\u00ebra qytetar\u00eb marrin pjes\u00eb n\u00eb st\u00ebrvitje p\u00ebr k\u00ebrc\u00ebnime nga Rusia","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"September 4, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"4 Shtator 2026 M\u00eb shum\u00eb se 2 mij\u00eb vullnetar\u00eb dhe student\u00eb po marrin pjes\u00eb n\u00eb Finland\u00eb n\u00eb st\u00ebrvitjen m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb mbrojtjes civile t\u00eb zhvilluar n\u00eb vend q\u00eb nga Lufta e Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore. 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Paralajm\u00ebrimi i OKB-s\u00eb: – 2027-ta mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb viti m\u00eb i nxeht\u00eb n\u00eb dekada","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"August 4, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"4 Gusht 2026 Organizata e Kombeve t\u00eb Bashkuara ka paralajm\u00ebruar se nj\u00eb faz\u00eb e re e fenomenit klimatik El Ni\u00f1o mund t\u00eb nis\u00eb brenda pak jav\u00ebsh dhe t\u00eb forcohet gjat\u00eb vitit 2026, duke rritur ndjesh\u00ebm temperaturat globale n\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb kur planeti po p\u00ebrballet tashm\u00eb me ndikimet e ndryshimeve klimatike.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit"","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/auto_el-nino-1024x5751780389452-1.jpg?fit=900%2C505&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/auto_el-nino-1024x5751780389452-1.jpg?fit=900%2C505&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/auto_el-nino-1024x5751780389452-1.jpg?fit=900%2C505&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/auto_el-nino-1024x5751780389452-1.jpg?fit=900%2C505&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":104406,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/ndahet-nga-jeta-leze-rrika-mesuesja-qe-i-dha-shpirt-brezave-dhe-jete-tradites\/","url_meta":{"origin":62690,"position":2},"title":"Ndahet nga jeta Leze Rrika, m\u00ebsuesja q\u00eb i dha shpirt brezave dhe jet\u00eb tradit\u00ebs","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"August 14, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"14 Gusht 2026 Ka njer\u00ebz q\u00eb kalojn\u00eb n\u00ebp\u00ebr jet\u00eb dhe l\u00ebn\u00eb pas kujtime. 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