{"id":60722,"date":"2022-08-05T23:35:40","date_gmt":"2022-08-05T23:35:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/?p=60722"},"modified":"2022-08-05T23:37:17","modified_gmt":"2022-08-05T23:37:17","slug":"shpopullimi-ekspertja-kroate-shqiperia-probleme-me-fuqine-punetore-ne-10-vitet-e-ardhshme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/shpopullimi-ekspertja-kroate-shqiperia-probleme-me-fuqine-punetore-ne-10-vitet-e-ardhshme\/","title":{"rendered":"Shpopullimi, ekspertja kroate: – Shqip\u00ebria probleme me fuqin\u00eb pun\u00ebtore n\u00eb 10 vitet e ardhshme!"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

5 Gusht 2022<\/p>\n

Demografja kroate Monika Komusanac ka deklaruar p\u00ebr median vendase \u201cFactor\u201d<\/a> se Ballkani do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb t\u00eb zbrazet, numri i popullsis\u00eb do t\u00eb ulet dhe n\u00eb disa vende do t\u00eb ket\u00eb munges\u00eb t\u00eb fuqis\u00eb pun\u00ebtore.<\/p>\n

Ajo u shpreh se vendet e Ballkanit tashm\u00eb karakterizohen nga nj\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebrje e moshave e pafavorshme dhe popullsi n\u00eb plakje. Komusana\u00e7 shpjegon se numri mesatar i t\u00eb rinjve deri n\u00eb 14 vje\u00e7 n\u00eb vendet e Ballkanit \u00ebsht\u00eb rreth 16 p\u00ebr qind, nd\u00ebrsa numrin mesatar i popullsis\u00eb mbi 60 vje\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb gati 25 p\u00ebr qind.<\/p>\n

\u201c\u00cbsht\u00eb nj\u00eb fakt alarmant se n\u00eb disa vende t\u00eb Ballkanit p\u00ebrqindja e t\u00eb moshuarve arrin pothuajse 30 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme, p\u00ebr shembull n\u00eb Kroaci (29,55 p\u00ebr qind), Bullgari (29,20 p\u00ebr qind) dhe Serbi (27,10 p\u00ebr qind), nd\u00ebrsa vende t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb Ballkanit kan\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje t\u00eb t\u00eb moshuarve nd\u00ebrmjet 22 dhe 25 p\u00ebr qind.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrjashtim nga k\u00ebto trende b\u00ebn Kosova, e cila ka 7 p\u00ebr qind m\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb rinj, kryesisht fal\u00eb faktit q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb shteti q\u00eb ka nj\u00eb prej niveleve m\u00eb t\u00eb larta t\u00eb lindjeve n\u00eb Ballkan dhe Evrop\u00eb dhe nj\u00eb norme relativisht t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb ndryshimeve pozitive natyrore, edhe pse edhe n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb shtet ky faktor ka pasur r\u00ebnie n\u00eb vitet e fundit..<\/p>\n

Projeksionet e OKB-s\u00eb p\u00ebr struktur\u00ebn e mosh\u00ebs n\u00eb vitin 2050 konfirmojn\u00eb vazhdimin e tendencave t\u00eb p\u00ebrmendura dhe rritjen e intensitetit t\u00eb plakjes n\u00eb vendet e Ballkanit.<\/p>\n

\"\"

Demografja kroate Monika Komusanac<\/p><\/div>\n

P\u00ebr shembull, OKB parashikon se shpopullimi i plot\u00eb (ulja e numrit t\u00eb banor\u00ebve) ka qen\u00eb tipar dominues i k\u00ebsaj zone p\u00ebr disa dekada, dhe sipas variantit t\u00eb mes\u00ebm t\u00eb vler\u00ebsimit t\u00eb Kombeve t\u00eb Bashkuara, shtetet ballkanike t\u00eb krijuara nga shp\u00ebrb\u00ebrja e Jugosllavis\u00eb presin nj\u00eb humbje prej 2.8 miliona persona nga mesi i shekullit, nd\u00ebrsa zona e gjer\u00eb e Ballkanit do t\u00eb p\u00ebrballet me nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb prej 8.2 milion\u00eb n\u00eb vet\u00ebm 30 vjet.<\/p>\n

\u201cK\u00ebshtu, p\u00ebr shembull, n\u00eb vitin 2050, Bullgaria, Serbia dhe Kroacia do t\u00eb shohin r\u00ebnien m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe relative t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb, midis 17 p\u00ebr qind dhe 24 p\u00ebr qind, nd\u00ebrsa vet\u00ebm disa vende t\u00eb Ballkanit do t\u00eb p\u00ebrjetojn\u00eb nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie prej m\u00eb pak se 10 p\u00ebr qind p\u00ebr sa i p\u00ebrket popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme n\u00eb vitin 2022\u201d, shpjegon demografja.<\/p>\n

Sipas saj, niveli i r\u00ebnies demografike n\u00eb Ballkan \u00ebsht\u00eb i till\u00eb, q\u00eb nuk ka gjasa t\u00eb pritet q\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb rritje pozitive.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb kushte normale t\u00eb zhvillimit t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb, periudha prej 5 deri n\u00eb 10 vjet \u00ebsht\u00eb relativisht e shkurt\u00ebr p\u00ebr ndryshime t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme demografike, por kur popullsit\u00eb e vogla (si ato kryesisht n\u00eb Ballkan, me p\u00ebrjashtim t\u00eb Rumanis\u00eb dhe Greqis\u00eb) arrijn\u00eb nj\u00eb nivel t\u00eb duksh\u00ebm shpopullimi, duhet pritur q\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha proceset e m\u00ebpasshme t\u00eb jen\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb shpejta.<\/p>\n

\u201cN\u00eb dekad\u00ebn e ardhshme, mund t\u00eb presim nj\u00eb ndikim demografik t\u00eb shtuar n\u00eb sistemet pensionale, sociale, t\u00eb pun\u00ebs, sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsore, arsimore dhe t\u00eb tjera, p\u00ebrkat\u00ebsisht ekskluzivisht si nj\u00eb faktor kufizues n\u00eb zhvillimin e p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj fushe.<\/p>\n

Me fjal\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, proceset dominuese demografike n\u00eb Ballkan reflektojn\u00eb negativisht n\u00eb zhvillimin hap\u00ebsinor t\u00eb mjediseve rajonale dhe lokale n\u00eb kontekstin e zhdukjes s\u00eb vendbanimeve m\u00eb t\u00eb vogla dhe zbrazjes s\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00ebs, reduktimit t\u00eb potencialit t\u00eb pjelloris\u00eb (biologjik) dhe ekonomik (pun\u00ebs), plakja e kontingjenteve t\u00eb pjesshme etj, gj\u00eb q\u00eb redukton ndjesh\u00ebm perspektivat p\u00ebr rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbjen demografike nga popullsia rezidente.<\/p>\n

R\u00ebnia e numrit, plakja dhe mungesa e fuqis\u00eb pun\u00ebtore jan\u00eb vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb nga sfidat bashk\u00ebkohore demografike me t\u00eb cilat p\u00ebrballen t\u00eb gjitha vendet evropiane pavar\u00ebsisht nga niveli i zhvillimit t\u00eb tyre.<\/p>\n

Madh\u00ebsia e kontigjentit t\u00eb personave t\u00eb aft\u00eb p\u00ebr pun\u00eb (nga 15 n\u00eb 64 vje\u00e7) n\u00eb Ballkan do t\u00eb ulet me rreth 2.6 milion\u00eb (rreth 7 p\u00ebr qind) deri n\u00eb vitin 2032 dhe Serbia, Kroacia, Bosnja dhe Hercegovina dhe Shqip\u00ebria do t\u00eb ken\u00eb problemin m\u00eb t\u00eb madh me fuqin\u00eb pun\u00ebtore.
\nK\u00ebshtu, n\u00eb 10 vitet e ardhshme, numri i njer\u00ebzve t\u00eb aft\u00eb p\u00ebr pun\u00eb n\u00eb Serbi do t\u00eb ulet me rreth 441,000 (9,39 p\u00ebr qind), n\u00eb Kroaci me 240.000 (9,37 p\u00ebr qind), n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri me 160.000 (8,38 p\u00ebr qind), n\u00eb Bosnje dhe Hercegovin\u00eb p\u00ebr 184.000 (8.53 p\u00ebr qind) etj.<\/p>\n

Dinamika e proceseve t\u00eb sip\u00ebrp\u00ebrmendura konfirmohet edhe nga projeksionet e OKB-s\u00eb p\u00ebr reduktimin e fuqis\u00eb totale pun\u00ebtore me 6.4 milion\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00eb n\u00eb Ballkan deri n\u00eb vitin 2042\u201d, thot\u00eb ekspertja.<\/p>\n

Ajo shpjegon se procesi i emigrimit nga nj\u00eb zon\u00eb dhe nivelet e ul\u00ebta t\u00eb lindjeve jan\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb nd\u00ebrlidhura dhe kan\u00eb ndikim e tyre n\u00eb krijimin e nj\u00eb problemi t\u00eb till\u00eb.<\/p>\n

\u201cNivele jasht\u00ebzakonisht t\u00eb ul\u00ebta t\u00eb lindjeve (nga 7,5 deri n\u00eb 11 n\u00eb mij\u00eb), nj\u00eb rritje e shkall\u00ebs s\u00eb vdekshm\u00ebris\u00eb si rezultat i plakjes s\u00eb popullsis\u00eb (midis 12 dhe 22 vje\u00e7 p\u00ebr mij\u00eb), norma negative e ndryshimit natyror dhe ritme t\u00eb larta t\u00eb migrimit t\u00eb jasht\u00ebm, ndikojn\u00eb n\u00eb krijimin e nj\u00eb situate t\u00eb till\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Situata \u00ebsht\u00eb ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht shqet\u00ebsuese n\u00eb Serbi, Bosnje dhe Kroaci, t\u00eb cilat sh\u00ebnojn\u00eb norma t\u00eb larta negative t\u00eb ndryshimeve natyrore.<\/p>\n

L\u00ebvizja e pafavorshme natyrore ka nj\u00eb efekt afatgjat\u00eb n\u00eb reduktimin e potencialit t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm rigjall\u00ebzues demografik t\u00eb zon\u00ebs s\u00eb Ballkanit, dhe emigracioni intensiv prej tij p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebson m\u00eb tej karakteristikat biodinamike, duke pasur parasysh se emigrojn\u00eb kryesisht popullata e re pra ajo q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb edhe faktori m\u00eb i madh riprodhues.<\/p>\n

Vazhdim\u00ebsia e k\u00ebtyre proceseve dhe indiferenca politike reduktojn\u00eb ndjesh\u00ebm shanset e mbijetes\u00ebs demografike t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj zone dhe kjo vlen p\u00ebr \u00e7do vend ballkanik pavar\u00ebsisht nga perceptimi gjeografik e politik\u201d, tha Komusana\u00e7.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

5 Gusht 2022 Demografja kroate Monika Komusanac ka deklaruar p\u00ebr median vendase \u201cFactor\u201d se Ballkani do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb t\u00eb zbrazet, numri i popullsis\u00eb do t\u00eb ulet dhe n\u00eb disa vende do t\u00eb ket\u00eb munges\u00eb t\u00eb fuqis\u00eb pun\u00ebtore. Ajo u shpreh se vendet e Ballkanit tashm\u00eb karakterizohen nga nj\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebrje e moshave e pafavorshme dhe popullsi […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":60723,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[27,2,35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-60722","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blogu-i-udhetarit","category-politika","category-shoqerore"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/20200401-construction-site-jpga4d189-image-770x433-1.jpg?fit=770%2C433&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5Z6wp-fNo","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":38048,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/studimi-i-okb-si-do-plaket-popullsia-e-shqiperise-norma-e-varesise-ekonomike-e-te-moshuarve-pritet-te-arrije-49\/","url_meta":{"origin":60722,"position":0},"title":"Studimi i OKB: Si do plaket popullsia e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, norma e var\u00ebsis\u00eb ekonomike e t\u00eb moshuarve pritet t\u00eb arrij\u00eb 49%","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"September 4, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Studimi i OKB: Si do plaket popullsia e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, norma e var\u00ebsis\u00eb ekonomike e t\u00eb moshuarve pritet t\u00eb arrij\u00eb 49% Gusht 2020 N\u00eb vitin 2050, numri i konsumator\u00ebve q\u00eb jan\u00eb mbi 65 vje\u00e7 do t\u00eb jet\u00eb sa gjysma (49%) e numrit t\u00eb punonj\u00ebsve t\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha moshave, n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri. Treguesi,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit"","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/1522818782_pensionet-905x395-1-905x450-1.jpg?fit=905%2C450&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/1522818782_pensionet-905x395-1-905x450-1.jpg?fit=905%2C450&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/1522818782_pensionet-905x395-1-905x450-1.jpg?fit=905%2C450&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/1522818782_pensionet-905x395-1-905x450-1.jpg?fit=905%2C450&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":16472,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/studimi-i-instat-njihuni-me-qytetet-shqiptare-ku-burrat-skane-provoje-seksuale\/","url_meta":{"origin":60722,"position":1},"title":"Studimi i INSTAT: Njihuni me qytetet shqiptare ku burrat s\u2019kan\u00eb provoj\u00eb seksuale. –","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"January 22, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Studimi i INSTAT: Njihuni me qytetet shqiptare ku burrat s\u2019kan\u00eb provoj\u00eb seksuale. - Shqip\u00ebria \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb trajektore r\u00ebn\u00ebse t\u00eb shtes\u00ebs natyrore t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb nivelit t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb emigracionit dhe numrit t\u00eb ul\u00ebt t\u00eb lindjeve. \u00a0 P\u00ebrpos kushteve ekonomike q\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsojn\u00eb sjelljen nj\u00eb jet\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit"","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/seksi-rutine-433x300.jpg?fit=433%2C244&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":16510,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/studimi-i-instat-njihuni-me-qytetet-shqiptare-ku-burrat-skane-provoje-seksuale-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":60722,"position":2},"title":"Studimi i INSTAT: Njihuni me qytetet shqiptare ku burrat s\u2019kan\u00eb provoj\u00eb seksuale. \u2013","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"January 23, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Studimi i INSTAT: Njihuni me qytetet shqiptare ku burrat s\u2019kan\u00eb provoj\u00eb seksuale. \u2013 Shqip\u00ebria \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb trajektore r\u00ebn\u00ebse t\u00eb shtes\u00ebs natyrore t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb nivelit t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb emigracionit dhe numrit t\u00eb ul\u00ebt t\u00eb lindjeve. P\u00ebrpos kushteve ekonomike q\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsojn\u00eb sjelljen nj\u00eb jet\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb f\u00ebmije,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit"","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/seksi-rutine-433x300-Copy.jpg?fit=433%2C300&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":84147,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/eshte-rritur-numri-i-grupmoshes-mbi-65-vjec-cpritet-te-ndodhe-me-te-moshuarit-brenda-nje-dekade\/","url_meta":{"origin":60722,"position":3},"title":"\u00cbsht\u00eb rritur numri i grupmosh\u00ebs mbi 65 vje\u00e7, \u00e7\u2019pritet t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb me t\u00eb moshuarit brenda nj\u00eb dekade","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"September 6, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"6 Shtator 2024 Sipas t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb Censit 2023, numri i individ\u00ebve mbi 65 vje\u00e7 ka p\u00ebsuar rritje t\u00eb konsiderueshme, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb plakja e popullat\u00ebs pritet t\u00eb thellohet edhe m\u00eb tej. Kjo ka sjell\u00eb problematika t\u00eb shumta n\u00eb fush\u00ebn e pensioneve, aspektin fiskal, ekonomik, por edhe social. K\u00ebshtu ka deklaruar\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit"","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Pensioniste-3-972-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Pensioniste-3-972-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Pensioniste-3-972-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Pensioniste-3-972-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Pensioniste-3-972-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":72515,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/sherben-si-rruge-tranzite-okb-publikon-raportin-e-drogave-per-2023-cfare-thuhet-per-shqiperine\/","url_meta":{"origin":60722,"position":4},"title":"\u201cSh\u00ebrben si rrug\u00eb tranzite\u201d, OKB publikon raportin e drogave p\u00ebr 2023, \u00e7far\u00eb thuhet p\u00ebr Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"June 29, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"29 Qershor 2023 Shqip\u00ebria \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb nga vendet kryesore tranzit t\u00eb trafikimit t\u00eb heroin\u00ebs dhe kokain\u00ebs t\u00eb identifikuara nga UNODC (Zyra e Kombeve t\u00eb Bashkuara kund\u00ebr Drog\u00ebs dhe Krimit) n\u00eb raportin e fundit t\u00eb drogave. 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