{"id":58446,"date":"2022-06-02T11:50:57","date_gmt":"2022-06-02T11:50:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/?p=58446"},"modified":"2022-06-02T11:50:57","modified_gmt":"2022-06-02T11:50:57","slug":"dymbedhjete-konstatime-dhe-parashikime-mbi-ate-qe-e-pret-boten-ne-te-ardhmen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/dymbedhjete-konstatime-dhe-parashikime-mbi-ate-qe-e-pret-boten-ne-te-ardhmen\/","title":{"rendered":"Dymb\u00ebdhjet\u00eb konstatime dhe parashikime, mbi at\u00eb q\u00eb e pret bot\u00ebn n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Dymb\u00ebdhjet\u00eb konstatime dhe parashikime, mbi at\u00eb q\u00eb e pret bot\u00ebn n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen<\/p><\/div>\n

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\u00a02 Qershor 2022\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Si ta kuptojm\u00eb situat\u00ebn aktuale n\u00eb bot\u00eb? Koha q\u00eb kalova n\u00eb Forumin e Davosit jav\u00ebn e kaluar, i kristalizoi p\u00ebrgjigjet e mia n\u00eb form\u00ebn e 12 parashikimeve.<\/span><\/p>\n

Parashikimi im i par\u00eb: Bota k\u00ebrc\u00ebnohet \u201cnga shpata, uria dhe nga murtaja\u201d si\u00e7 paralajm\u00ebroi Ezekieli n\u00eb Bib\u00ebl.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00eb fillim ishte pandemia e Covid-19, pastaj lufta n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, dhe tani uria, pasi jan\u00eb nd\u00ebrprer\u00eb eksportet e ushqimit, plehrave dhe energjis\u00eb. K\u00ebto na kujtojn\u00eb brisht\u00ebsin\u00eb\u00a0<\/span>ton\u00eb ndaj goditjeve t\u00eb paparashikueshme, dhe mjerisht jo t\u00eb paimagjinueshme.<\/span><\/p>\n

Parashikimi nr.2: \u201c\u00cbsht\u00eb politika, budalla!\u201d Xhejms Karvil, strategu i fushat\u00ebs s\u00eb Bill Klinton propozoi sloganin e famsh\u00ebm elektoral \u201c\u00cbsht\u00eb ekonomia, budalla!\u201d Por primati i ekonomis\u00eb nuk mund t\u00eb supozohet m\u00eb. Epoka jon\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb ajo e luft\u00ebrave kulturore, politikave t\u00eb identitetit, nacionalizmit dhe rivalitetit gjeopolitik. Ajo \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithashtu p\u00ebr pasoj\u00eb nj\u00eb epok\u00eb e ndarjeve, brenda p\u00ebr brenda dhe midis vendeve.<\/span><\/p>\n

Parashikimi nr.3: Teknologjia do e vazhdoj\u00eb \u201cmarshimin\u201d e vet transformues. Covid-19 solli me vete dy surpriza t\u00eb mir\u00ebpritura: aft\u00ebsin\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb zhvilluar online nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00ebs son\u00eb normale; dhe kapacitetin p\u00ebr t\u00eb zhvilluar dhe prodhuar vaksina efektive me nj\u00eb shpejt\u00ebsi t\u00eb mahnitshme, edhe pse duke d\u00ebshtuar n\u00eb ofrimin e tyre n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb barabart\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Parashikimi nr.4: Ndarjet politike midis demokracive me t\u00eb ardhura t\u00eb larta nga nj\u00ebra an\u00eb, dhe Rusis\u00eb dhe Kin\u00ebs nga ana tjet\u00ebr, jan\u00eb tani shum\u00eb t\u00eb thella. P\u00ebrpara pushtimit rus t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs, mbijetesa e nj\u00eb koncepti gjith\u00ebp\u00ebrfshir\u00ebs t\u00eb \u201cNj\u00eb bote\u201d dukej t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn e imagjinueshme. Por luft\u00ebrat jan\u00eb transformuese.<\/span><\/p>\n

Oferta e Kin\u00ebs p\u00ebr nj\u00eb partneritet \u201ct\u00eb pakufish\u00ebm\u201d me Rusis\u00eb, mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb qen\u00eb vendimtare n\u00eb vendimin e Putinit p\u00ebr t\u00eb rrezikuar nisjen e pushtimit. Lufta e tij \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb sulm ndaj interesave dhe vlerave thelb\u00ebsore per\u00ebndimore. Ajo e ka bashkuar p\u00ebr momentin SHBA-n\u00eb dhe Evrop\u00ebn. Dhe kjo duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb vendimtare p\u00ebr q\u00ebndrimin e Evrop\u00ebs ndaj Kin\u00ebs: nj\u00eb fuqi q\u00eb mb\u00ebshtet nj\u00eb sulm t\u00eb till\u00eb, nuk mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb kurrsesi nj\u00eb partner i besuesh\u00ebm. Marshimi drejt totalitarizmit i t\u00eb dyja k\u00ebtyre autokracive, duhet t\u00eb thelloj\u00eb ndarjen globale.<\/span><\/p>\n

Parashikimi nr.5: Me gjith\u00eb ngritjen e Kin\u00ebs, Per\u00ebndimi, me demokracit\u00eb me t\u00eb ardhura m\u00eb t\u00eb larta, \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb i fuqish\u00ebm. Sipas FMN-s\u00eb, k\u00ebto vende p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb ende sot 42 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb prodhimit global me barazin\u00eb e fuqis\u00eb bler\u00ebse dhe 57 p\u00ebr qind me \u00e7mimet e tregut t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti, kundrejt 19 p\u00ebr qind q\u00eb z\u00eb Kina.<\/span><\/p>\n

Po ashtu ato emetojn\u00eb monedhat rezerv\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme. Kina ka m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 3 trilion\u00eb dollar\u00eb rezerva valutore, nd\u00ebrsa SHBA-ja gati asnj\u00eb. N\u00eb vend t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj, ajo mund t\u2019i printoj\u00eb ato. Aft\u00ebsia e SHBA-s\u00eb dhe aleat\u00ebve t\u00eb saj p\u00ebr t\u00eb ngrir\u00eb nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb rezervave valutore t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb, tregon se \u00e7far\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb kjo fuqi. Megjithat\u00eb, fuqia per\u00ebndimore nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm ekonomike por edhe ushtarake. Si do t\u00eb kishte dal\u00eb ushtria ruse n\u00ebse do t\u00eb ndeshej me at\u00eb t\u00eb NATO-s?<\/span><\/p>\n

Parashikimi nr.6: Megjithat\u00eb Per\u00ebndimi \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb i ndar\u00eb brenda vetes. Shum\u00eb politikan\u00eb t\u00eb tij ishin mb\u00ebshtet\u00ebs entuziast\u00eb t\u00eb Putinit. Nj\u00eb prej tyre ishte Marin L\u00eb Pen. N\u00eb Evrop\u00eb, Viktor Orban \u00ebsht\u00eb i mbijetuari m\u00eb i z\u00ebsh\u00ebm i k\u00ebtij grupimi. N\u00eb SHBA, autoritarizmi ksenofobik, mbetet nj\u00eb grup idesh udh\u00ebheq\u00ebse n\u00eb t\u00eb djatht\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jehona e sulmit t\u00eb Donald Trump mbi tiparin m\u00eb themelor t\u00eb demokracis\u00eb \u2013 transferimin e pushtetit p\u00ebrmes nj\u00eb votimi t\u00eb ndersh\u00ebm \u2013 ndihet ende n\u00eb SHBA. Shumica e k\u00ebtyre njer\u00ebzve e shohin si nj\u00eb model autokracin\u00eb nacionaliste t\u00eb Putinit. N\u00ebse ata rikthehen n\u00eb pushtet, uniteti per\u00ebndimor do t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrrohet.<\/span><\/p>\n

Parashikimi nr.7: N\u00eb nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb afatgjat\u00eb, Azia ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebhet rajoni ekonomik dominues i bot\u00ebs. Vendet n\u00eb zhvillim t\u00eb Azis\u00eb Lindore, Juglindore dhe Jugore p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb gjysm\u00ebn e popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb bot\u00ebs, kundrejt 16 p\u00ebr qind p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjitha vendet me t\u00eb ardhura t\u00eb larta s\u00eb bashku. Sipas FMN-s\u00eb, PPB-ja mesatare reale e k\u00ebtyre ekonomive aziatike \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur ndjesh\u00ebm, por jo vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Parashikimi nr.8: Demokracit\u00eb me t\u00eb ardhura t\u00eb larta duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsojn\u00eb loj\u00ebn e tyre politike, n\u00ebse duan q\u00eb t\u2019i bindin vendet n\u00eb zhvillim q\u00eb t\u00eb bashkohen me to kund\u00ebr Kin\u00ebs dhe Rusis\u00eb. Pak vende i p\u00eblqejn\u00eb k\u00ebto autokraci. Por Per\u00ebndimi e ka humbur ndjesh\u00ebm mb\u00ebshtetjen, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb luft\u00ebrave t\u00eb tij t\u00eb d\u00ebshtuara dhe ndihm\u00ebs s\u00eb pamjaftueshme, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht gjat\u00eb pandemis\u00eb s\u00eb Covid-19. Shumica e vendeve n\u00eb zhvillim do t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqen t\u00eb ken\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie t\u00eb mira me t\u00eb dyja pal\u00ebt.<\/span><\/p>\n

Parashikimi nr.9: Bashk\u00ebpunimi global mbetet thelb\u00ebsor. Sado t\u00eb thella q\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebhen p\u00ebr\u00e7arjet, jetojm\u00eb q\u00eb gjith\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb planet. Ndaj duhet t\u00eb shmangim luft\u00ebrat kataklizmike, kolapsin ekonomik dhe mbi t\u00eb gjitha shkat\u00ebrrimin e mjedisit. Asnj\u00eb nga k\u00ebto nuk ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb, pa nj\u00eb nivel minimal bashk\u00ebpunimi. Por a \u00ebsht\u00eb kjo e mundur? Jo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Parashikimi nr.10: Z\u00ebrat mbi \u201cvdekjen\u201d e globalizimit jan\u00eb t\u00eb tepruara. Amerikan\u00ebt jan\u00eb t\u00eb prirur t\u00eb mendojn\u00eb se perspektiva e tyre \u00ebsht\u00eb norma globale. Shpesh nuk ndodh k\u00ebshtu. Shumica e vendeve e din\u00eb se tregtia e gjer\u00eb nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb luks, por nj\u00eb domosdoshm\u00ebri. Pa\u00a0<\/span>t\u00eb, ata do t\u00eb varf\u00ebroheshin shum\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Perspektiva m\u00eb e mundshme \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb tregtia t\u00eb b\u00ebhet m\u00eb pak amerikane, m\u00eb pak per\u00ebndimore dhe m\u00eb pak e dominuar nga prodhuesit. Tregtia e sh\u00ebrbimeve ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb lul\u00ebzoj\u00eb shum\u00eb, e nxitur nga nd\u00ebrveprimi nd\u00ebrkufitar n\u00eb internet dhe inteligjenca artificiale (AI).<\/span><\/p>\n

Parashikimi nr.11: Duke pasur parasysh sfidat e m\u00ebdha politike dhe organizative, shanset q\u00eb njer\u00ebzimi t\u00eb parandaloj\u00eb ndryshimet e d\u00ebmshme klimatike jan\u00eb t\u00eb pakta. Emetimet e gazrave ser\u00eb ran\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2020 p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb Covid-19.\u00a0<\/span>Por kurba mbetet ende e palakuar.<\/span><\/p>\n

Parashikimi nr.12: Inflacioni \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur n\u00eb nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb papar\u00eb p\u00ebr 4 dekada. Pyetja \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebse bankat qendrore do t\u00eb arrijn\u00eb ta ruajn\u00eb besueshm\u00ebrin\u00eb e tyre. Inflacioni i lart\u00eb dhe r\u00ebnia e t\u00eb ardhurave reale jan\u00eb nj\u00eb kombinim i d\u00ebmsh\u00ebm n\u00eb aspektin politik. Ato do t\u00eb pasohen nga trazirat. Ne n\u00eb Per\u00ebndim duhet t\u00eb menaxhojm\u00eb ndryshimet e thella dhe konfliktet vdekjeprur\u00ebse, n\u00eb nj\u00eb epok\u00eb t\u00eb ndarjeve dhe zhg\u00ebnjimit. Udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsit tan\u00eb duhet t\u00eb ngrihen n\u00eb lart\u00ebsin\u00eb e k\u00ebsaj sfide. A do ta b\u00ebjn\u00eb ata k\u00ebt\u00eb? Shpresojm\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb k\u00ebshtu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cFinancial Times\u201d- Bota.al<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a02 Qershor 2022\u00a0 Si ta kuptojm\u00eb situat\u00ebn aktuale n\u00eb bot\u00eb? Koha q\u00eb kalova n\u00eb Forumin e Davosit jav\u00ebn e kaluar, i kristalizoi p\u00ebrgjigjet e mia n\u00eb form\u00ebn e 12 parashikimeve. Parashikimi im i par\u00eb: Bota k\u00ebrc\u00ebnohet \u201cnga shpata, uria dhe nga murtaja\u201d si\u00e7 paralajm\u00ebroi Ezekieli n\u00eb Bib\u00ebl. N\u00eb fillim ishte pandemia e Covid-19, pastaj lufta […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":58447,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[27,14,35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-58446","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blogu-i-udhetarit","category-press-releases","category-shoqerore"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/Screenshot-2021-04-20-at-12.55.28-PM.jpg?fit=1370%2C738&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5Z6wp-fcG","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":100418,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/shkup-te-rinjte-arrijne-te-bashkohen-rreth-nje-ideje-te-paster-dhe-kombetare\/","url_meta":{"origin":58446,"position":0},"title":"Shkup: – T\u00eb rinjt\u00eb arrijn\u00eb t\u00eb bashkohen rreth nj\u00eb ideje t\u00eb past\u00ebr dhe komb\u00ebtare","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"May 18, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"18 Maji 2026 Protesta sot (18 maji) n\u00eb Shkup arrin nj\u00eb masivitet t\u00eb madh, at\u00ebher\u00eb kjo nuk duhet t\u00eb mbetet vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb revolt\u00eb nj\u00ebditore, por nj\u00eb mesazh i qart\u00eb se shqiptar\u00ebt n\u00eb Maqedonin\u00eb e Veriut jan\u00eb lodhur nga politika e vjet\u00ebr dhe figurat q\u00eb prej dekadash qarkullojn\u00eb vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr interesa\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit"","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/701600512_1565575028908226_8852565815301446201_n.jpg?fit=1200%2C655&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/701600512_1565575028908226_8852565815301446201_n.jpg?fit=1200%2C655&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/701600512_1565575028908226_8852565815301446201_n.jpg?fit=1200%2C655&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/701600512_1565575028908226_8852565815301446201_n.jpg?fit=1200%2C655&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/701600512_1565575028908226_8852565815301446201_n.jpg?fit=1200%2C655&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":101662,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/lajm-arkiv-shteti-mysliman-i-rames-nje-mikroshtet-per-bektashinjte-brenda-tiranes\/","url_meta":{"origin":58446,"position":1},"title":"Lajm Arkiv: – Shteti mysliman i Rames – Nj\u00eb mikroshtet p\u00ebr bektashinjt\u00eb brenda Tiran\u00ebs","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"June 21, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"21 Shtator 2024 New York Times i ka kushtuar nj\u00eb artikull mund\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb krijimit t\u00eb nj\u00eb shteti t\u00eb stilit t\u00eb Vatikanit n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri. Sipas NYT kryeministri Edi Rama d\u00ebshiron t\u2019u jap\u00eb an\u00ebtar\u00ebve t\u00eb Bektashinjve enklav\u00ebn e tyre t\u00eb stilit t\u00eb Vatikanit si nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb promovuar toleranc\u00ebn fetare. Kleriku\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit"","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Rama-Baba-Mondi-1.jpg?fit=753%2C450&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Rama-Baba-Mondi-1.jpg?fit=753%2C450&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Rama-Baba-Mondi-1.jpg?fit=753%2C450&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Rama-Baba-Mondi-1.jpg?fit=753%2C450&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":100792,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/revolucioni-i-zvernecit-dhe-aleanca-e-dyshimte-mes-politikes-dhe-qarqeve-antishqiptare\/","url_meta":{"origin":58446,"position":2},"title":"Revolucioni i Zv\u00ebrnecit dhe aleanca e dyshimt\u00eb mes politik\u00ebs dhe qarqeve antishqiptare","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"May 31, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"31 Maji 2026 Protesta e Zv\u00ebrnecit \u00ebsht\u00eb shnd\u00ebrruar n\u00eb nj\u00eb tragjikomedi ku nd\u00ebrthuren brenda interesa antishqiptare, politike por dhe biznesesh t\u00eb cil\u00ebt ndjejn\u00eb konkurrenc\u00ebn. 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