{"id":48550,"date":"2021-07-17T20:29:01","date_gmt":"2021-07-17T20:29:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/?p=48550"},"modified":"2021-07-17T20:29:01","modified_gmt":"2021-07-17T20:29:01","slug":"studimi-i-mit-a-do-te-shembet-civilizimi-yne-brenda-ketij-shekulli","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/studimi-i-mit-a-do-te-shembet-civilizimi-yne-brenda-ketij-shekulli\/","title":{"rendered":"Studimi i \u201cMIT\u201d: – \u00a0A do t\u00eb shembet civilizimi yn\u00eb brenda k\u00ebtij shekulli?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

Studimi i \u201cMIT\u201d: – \u00a0A do t\u00eb shembet civilizimi yn\u00eb brenda k\u00ebtij shekulli?<\/p>\n

17 kokrrik 2021<\/p>\n

Studim i ri i jasht\u00ebzakonsh\u00ebm nga nj\u00eb drejtues n\u00eb nj\u00ebr\u00ebn nga kompanit\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha t\u00eb kontabilitetit n\u00eb bot\u00eb, ka zbuluar se nj\u00eb paralajm\u00ebrim i famsh\u00ebm disa dekada m\u00eb par\u00eb nga Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) mbi rrezikun e shembjes s\u00eb civilizimit industrial, duket t\u00eb jet\u00eb i sakt\u00eb bazuar n\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e reja empirike.<\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrsa bota pret nj\u00eb reagim n\u00eb aspektin e rritjes ekonomike, pas shkat\u00ebrrimit q\u00eb solli pandemia e Covid-19, studimi i ri ngre disa pik\u00ebpyetje urgjente n\u00eb lidhje me rreziqet e p\u00ebrpjekjeve p\u00ebr t\u2019u kthyer n\u00eb \u201cnormalitetin\u201d q\u00eb kishim para pandemis\u00eb.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb vitin 1972, nj\u00eb ekip i shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebve t\u00eb MIT u b\u00ebn\u00eb bashk\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb studiuar rreziqet e r\u00ebnies s\u00eb qytet\u00ebrimit ton\u00eb. Modeli i tyre mbi dinamik\u00ebn e sistemit i botuar nga Klubi i Rom\u00ebs, identifikoi \u201ckufijt\u00eb e af\u00ebrt t\u00eb rritjes\u201d (LtG), gj\u00eb q\u00eb do t\u00eb thoshte se civilizimi industrial ishte n\u00eb rrug\u00ebn e duhur p\u00ebr t\u2019u shembur diku brenda shekullit XXI, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb mbi\u2013shfryt\u00ebzimit t\u00eb burimeve planetare.<\/p>\n

Analiza e diskutueshme e MIT, gjeneroi debate t\u00eb forta dhe n\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb u p\u00ebrqesh gjer\u00ebsisht nga ekspert\u00eb, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt keq-prezantuan gjetjet dhe metodat e tij. Por ajo analiz\u00eb ka sot fituar sot nj\u00eb justifikim mbres\u00ebl\u00ebn\u00ebs nj\u00eb nj\u00eb studim t\u00eb kryer nga nj\u00eb drejtor i kompanis\u00eb s\u00eb sh\u00ebrbimeve profesionale KPMG, nj\u00eb nga kompanit\u00eb e kontabilitetit m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha n\u00eb bot\u00eb, pjes\u00eb e \u201cBig Four\u201d, e matur kjo nga t\u00eb ardhurat globale.<\/p>\n

Kufijt\u00eb e rritjes dhe rreziku i shembjes<\/p>\n

Studimi u botua n\u00eb \u201cYale Journal of Industrial Ecology\u201d n\u00eb n\u00ebntor 2020, dhe mund t\u00eb lexohet n\u00eb faqen e internetit t\u00eb KPMG. Ai arrin n\u00eb p\u00ebrfundimin se trajektorja aktuale e zakonshme e civilizimit global, po shkon drejt r\u00ebnies p\u00ebrfundimtare t\u00eb rritjes ekonomike brenda dekad\u00ebs s\u00eb ardhshme, dhe n\u00eb rastin m\u00eb t\u00eb keq, mund t\u00eb shkaktoj\u00eb kolaps social deri n\u00eb vitin 2040.<\/p>\n

Autori i tij, Gaja Herrington, \u00ebsht\u00eb drejtuese e Q\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebris\u00eb dhe Analiz\u00ebs Dinamike t\u00eb Sistemit n\u00eb KPMG. Studimi nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb kryer n\u00eb em\u00ebr t\u00eb KPMG, dhe nuk pasqyron domosdoshm\u00ebrisht pik\u00ebpamjet e KPMG.<\/p>\n

Herrington e kreu k\u00ebrkimin si nj\u00eb shtojc\u00eb e tez\u00ebs s\u00eb saj t\u00eb masterit n\u00eb Universitetin e Harvardit, n\u00eb cil\u00ebsin\u00eb e saj si k\u00ebshilltare n\u00eb Klubin e Rom\u00ebs. Analiza e re e Herrington shqyrton t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat n\u00eb 10 variabla kryesor\u00eb, p\u00ebrkat\u00ebsisht popullsia, nivelet e lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb, nivelet e vdekshm\u00ebris\u00eb, prodhimi industrial, prodhimi i ushqimit, sh\u00ebrbimet, burimet e parinovueshme, ndotjen e vazhdueshme, mir\u00ebqenien njer\u00ebzore dhe gjurm\u00ebn ekologjike.<\/p>\n

Ajo zbuloi se t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e fundit p\u00ebrputhen m\u00eb s\u00eb af\u00ebrmi me dy skenar\u00eb t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb, \u2018BAU2\u2019 (biznesi si zakonisht) dhe \u2018CT\u2019 (teknologjia gjith\u00ebp\u00ebrfshir\u00ebse). \u201cSkenar\u00ebt BAU2 dhe CT,tregojn\u00eb nj\u00eb ndalje t\u00eb rritjes brenda nj\u00eb dekade apo pak m\u00eb shum\u00eb nga tani. T\u00eb dy skenar\u00ebt tregojn\u00eb se vazhdimi i biznesit si zakonisht, pra ndjekja e rritjes s\u00eb vazhdueshme ekonomike, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i mundur.<\/p>\n

Edhe kur shoq\u00ebrohet me nj\u00eb zhvillim t\u00eb papar\u00eb teknologjik, biznesi si zakonisht i modeluar nga LtG do t\u00eb \u00e7onte n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb pashmangshme n\u00eb r\u00ebnien e kapitalit industrial, prodhimit bujq\u00ebsor dhe t\u00eb niveleve t\u00eb mir\u00ebqenies brenda k\u00ebtij shekulli\u201d- thekson ajo n\u00eb studim.<\/p>\n

Herrington thekson gjithsesi se n\u00eb modelet e MIT \u201cWorld3\u201d, shembja \u201cnuk do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se njer\u00ebzimi do t\u00eb pushoj\u00eb s\u00eb ekzistuari\u201d, por p\u00ebrkundrazi se \u201crritja ekonomike dhe ajo industriale do t\u00eb ndalet, m\u00eb pas do t\u00eb bjer\u00eb, gj\u00eb q\u00eb do t\u00eb d\u00ebmtoj\u00eb prodhimin e ushqimit dhe standardet e jetes\u00ebs. P\u00ebr sa i p\u00ebrket koh\u00ebs, skenari BAU2 tregon nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie t\u00eb madhe q\u00eb pritet t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb rreth vitit 2040.<\/p>\n

Fundi i rritjes ekonomike?<\/p>\n

N\u00eb skenarin gjith\u00ebp\u00ebrfshir\u00ebs t\u00eb teknologjis\u00eb (CT), r\u00ebnia ekonomike q\u00eb ndodh rreth k\u00ebsaj date sjell sigurisht nj\u00eb s\u00ebr\u00eb pasojash t\u00eb mundshme negative, por nuk do t\u00eb \u00e7oj\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb kolaps social. Fatkeq\u00ebsisht, skenari q\u00eb p\u00ebrshtatet m\u00eb pak me t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat m\u00eb t\u00eb fundit empirike ndodh t\u00eb jet\u00eb rruga m\u00eb optimiste e njohur si \u201cSW\u201d (bota e stabilizuar), n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn civilizimi ndjek nj\u00eb rrug\u00eb t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme dhe p\u00ebrjeton r\u00ebniet m\u00eb t\u00eb vogla t\u00eb rritjes ekonomike, bazuar tek nj\u00eb kombinim i inovacionit teknologjik dhe investimeve t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapura n\u00eb sh\u00ebndetin publik dhe arsim.<\/p>\n

Megjith\u00ebse q\u00eb t\u00eb dy skenar\u00ebt e biznesit si zakonisht dhe teknologjis\u00eb gjith\u00ebp\u00ebrfshir\u00ebse,tregojn\u00eb fundin e ardhsh\u00ebm t\u00eb rritjes ekonomike brenda rreth 10 vjet\u00ebsh, vet\u00ebm skenari BAU2 \u201ctregon nj\u00eb model t\u00eb qart\u00eb kolapsi, nd\u00ebrsa CT sugjeron mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e r\u00ebnieve relativisht t\u00eb buta n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen, m\u00eb s\u00eb paku p\u00ebr njer\u00ebzimin n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsi\u201d.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb dekad\u00eb koh\u00eb p\u00ebr themelimin e nj\u00eb civilizimi t\u00eb ri<\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrsa fokusi tek ndjekja e rritjes s\u00eb vazhdueshme ekonomike do t\u00eb jet\u00eb i kot\u00eb, studimi zbulon se progresi teknologjik dhe investimet e rritura n\u00eb sh\u00ebrbimet publike, nuk mund t\u00eb shmangin vet\u00ebm rrezikun e kolapsit, por mund t\u00eb \u00e7ojn\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb civilizim t\u00eb ri t\u00eb q\u00ebndruesh\u00ebm dhe t\u00eb zhvilluar q\u00eb vepron i sigurt brenda kufijt\u00eb planetar\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Por ne kemi v\u00ebrtet vet\u00ebm dekad\u00ebn e ardhshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndryshuar kursin. \u201cN\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb pik\u00eb, t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat p\u00ebrputhen m\u00eb s\u00eb shumti me skenar\u00ebt CT dhe BAU2 t\u00eb cil\u00ebt tregojn\u00eb nj\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsim por edhe ndalje t\u00eb mundshme t\u00eb rritjes brenda dekad\u00ebs s\u00eb ardhshme apo m\u00eb shum\u00eb. Por \u00cborld3 l\u00eb t\u00eb hapur \u00e7\u00ebshtjen n\u00ebse r\u00ebnia pasuese do t\u00eb sjell\u00eb nj\u00eb kolaps social\u201d- p\u00ebrfundon studimi.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb nj\u00eb prezantim n\u00eb Forumin Ekonomik Bot\u00ebror n\u00eb vitin 2020 Herrington foli p\u00ebr \u2018agrowth\u2019 \u2013 nj\u00eb qasje agnostike ndaj rritjes ekonomike, e cila p\u00ebrqendrohet n\u00eb q\u00ebllime dhe p\u00ebrpar\u00ebsi t\u00eb tjera ekonomike.<\/p>\n

\u201cAktiviteti njer\u00ebzor mund t\u00eb rigjenerohet, dhe kapacitetet tona prodhuese mund t\u00eb transformohen. N\u00eb fakt, ne po shohim q\u00eb tani shembuj t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj\u201d- tha ajo, duke v\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb dukje se si zhvillimi dhe prodhimi i shpejt\u00eb i vaksinave kund\u00ebr Covid-19 d\u00ebshmon se n\u00ebse vendosim t\u00eb veprojm\u00eb, ne jemi t\u00eb aft\u00eb t\u2019u p\u00ebrgjigjemi shpejt dhe n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb konstruktive sfidave globale. \/ bota.al<\/p>\n

Nga Gazeta Panorama<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Studimi i \u201cMIT\u201d: – \u00a0A do t\u00eb shembet civilizimi yn\u00eb brenda k\u00ebtij shekulli? 17 kokrrik 2021 Studim i ri i jasht\u00ebzakonsh\u00ebm nga nj\u00eb drejtues n\u00eb nj\u00ebr\u00ebn nga kompanit\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha t\u00eb kontabilitetit n\u00eb bot\u00eb, ka zbuluar se nj\u00eb paralajm\u00ebrim i famsh\u00ebm disa dekada m\u00eb par\u00eb nga Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) mbi rrezikun e […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":48551,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[27,10,35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48550","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blogu-i-udhetarit","category-kultura","category-shoqerore"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/8D916768-2662-419B-9E9E-9E293E5A8E64.jpeg?fit=1202%2C650&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5Z6wp-cD4","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":83252,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/rrymat-e-atlantikut-ne-rrezik-studimi-ndikojne-motin-ne-gjithe-boten-sistemi-i-rrymave-drejt-kolapsit\/","url_meta":{"origin":48550,"position":0},"title":"Rrymat e atlantikut n\u00eb rrezik\/ Studimi: – Ndikojn\u00eb motin n\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebn, sistemi I rrymave drejt kolapsit","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"August 4, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"4 Gusht 2024 P\u00ebr shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebt kjo paralajm\u00ebron nj\u00eb katastrof\u00eb n\u00eb shkall\u00eb planetare q\u00eb do t\u00eb transformonte klim\u00ebn. 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