{"id":47322,"date":"2021-05-09T15:56:06","date_gmt":"2021-05-09T15:56:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/?p=47322"},"modified":"2021-05-09T15:56:06","modified_gmt":"2021-05-09T15:56:06","slug":"a-do-kete-nje-lufte-te-madhe-ne-5-10-vitet-e-ardhshme-nje-liber-profetik-dhe-nje-interviste-ne-spiegel-in-gjerman-qe-ka-ngjallur-shume-debate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/a-do-kete-nje-lufte-te-madhe-ne-5-10-vitet-e-ardhshme-nje-liber-profetik-dhe-nje-interviste-ne-spiegel-in-gjerman-qe-ka-ngjallur-shume-debate\/","title":{"rendered":"A do ket\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb madhe n\u00eb 5-10 vitet e ardhshme? Nj\u00eb lib\u00ebr profetik dhe nj\u00eb intervist\u00eb n\u00eb Spiegel-in gjerman q\u00eb ka ngjallur shum\u00eb debate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"47323\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/a-do-kete-nje-lufte-te-madhe-ne-5-10-vitet-e-ardhshme-nje-liber-profetik-dhe-nje-interviste-ne-spiegel-in-gjerman-qe-ka-ngjallur-shume-debate\/unnamed-61\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/unnamed-2.jpg?fit=512%2C223&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"512,223\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"unnamed\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/unnamed-2.jpg?fit=300%2C131&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/unnamed-2.jpg?fit=512%2C223&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-47323\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/unnamed-2.jpg?resize=625%2C273&#038;ssl=1\" width=\"625\" height=\"273\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/unnamed-2.jpg?resize=300%2C131&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/unnamed-2.jpg?resize=450%2C196&amp;ssl=1 450w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/unnamed-2.jpg?resize=400%2C174&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/unnamed-2.jpg?w=512&amp;ssl=1 512w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 625px) 100vw, 625px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A do ket\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb madhe n\u00eb 5-10 vitet e ardhshme? Nj\u00eb lib\u00ebr profetik dhe nj\u00eb intervist\u00eb n\u00eb Spiegel-in gjerman q\u00eb ka ngjallur shum\u00eb debate<\/p>\n<p>8 maji 2021<\/p>\n<p>\u201c2034\u201d quhet libri me dy autor\u00eb, shkrimtarin Elliot Ackerman, nj\u00eb veteran i luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Afganistan dhe ish-kreun suprem t\u00eb Forcave Aleate n\u00eb Europ\u00eb, Admiralin James Stavridis.<\/p>\n<p>Libri ka provokuar reagime dhe debate. Cil\u00ebsohet si nj\u00eb thriller gjeopolitik dhe n\u00eb t\u00eb parashikohet, apo imagjinohet nj\u00eb konflikt mes Kin\u00ebs dhe SHBA q\u00eb shkon deri n\u00eb p\u00ebrdorim t\u00eb arm\u00ebve b\u00ebrthamore taktike.<\/p>\n<p>Lidhur me k\u00ebt\u00eb lib\u00ebr, Stavridis flet n\u00eb nj\u00eb intervist\u00eb p\u00ebr revist\u00ebn gjermane \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.spiegel.de\/international\/world\/the-u-s-china-confrontation-we-need-to-avoid-stumbling-into-a-major-war-a-145ea252-612f-408a-b8c8-b2458ef11ece\">Spiegel<\/a>\u201d p\u00ebrmes s\u00eb cil\u00ebs analizon kompleksitetin e marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve mes Kin\u00ebs dhe SHBA duke theksuar se ideja e nj\u00eb konflikti t\u00eb armatosur \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb reale, madje edhe e af\u00ebrt n\u00eb koh\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Admiral, sa af\u00ebr konfrontimit ushtarak jan\u00eb sot Kina dhe SHBA?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Data \u00ebsht\u00eb gabim. Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb viti 2034, ndoshta \u00ebsht\u00eb 2024 ose 2026. \u00c7do mik i imi i ushtris\u00eb m\u00eb ka shkruar: \u201c<em>Ke shkruar nj\u00eb rr\u00ebfim t\u00eb kujdessh\u00ebm rreth nj\u00eb lufte q\u00eb mendon se \u00ebsht\u00eb 10-15 vjet larg, por shum\u00eb prej nesh besojn\u00eb se do t\u00eb vij\u00eb m\u00eb shpejt<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Vet\u00ebm tri jav\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb, Admirali Philip S. Davidson, q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb komandanit i t\u00eb gjitha forcave amerikane n\u00eb rajonin e Indo-Paq\u00ebsorit, ka folur p\u00ebr mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e nj\u00eb lufte p\u00ebr Tajvanin brenda gjasht\u00eb vjet\u00ebve. Si SHBA, ashtu edhe Kina kan\u00eb v\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb veprim anije dhe avion\u00eb ushtarak\u00eb, pran\u00eb nj\u00ebri tjetrit n\u00eb detin e Kin\u00ebs Jugore.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dhe Kina me SHBA kan\u00eb shum\u00eb mosmarr\u00ebveshje politike\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb \u2013 rreth statusit t\u00eb Tajvanit, rreth \u00e7\u00ebshtjes se kush e posedon detin e Kin\u00ebs Jugore, rreth shkeljeve t\u00eb t\u00eb drejtave t\u00eb njeriut n\u00eb Kin\u00eb, p\u00ebr situat\u00ebn e ujgur\u00ebve. Mund t\u00eb vazhdoj me t\u00eb tjera.<\/p>\n<p>Krimi ndodh aty ku motivi takohet me mund\u00ebsin\u00eb. K\u00ebto jan\u00eb dy kombe q\u00eb kan\u00eb mund\u00ebsin\u00eb, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb flotave t\u00eb armatosura r\u00ebnd\u00eb dhe motivin \u2013 p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb paket\u00ebs s\u00eb mosmarr\u00ebveshjeve mes tyre.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Debatet politike n\u00eb t\u00eb dyja an\u00ebt t\u00eb japin p\u00ebrshtypjen se konflikti ushtarak \u00ebsht\u00eb thuajse i pashmangsh\u00ebm. Graham Allison paralajm\u00ebron p\u00ebr \u201cKurthin e Tukiditit\u201d. N\u00eb histori, thot\u00eb ai, kur nj\u00eb fuqi e madhe kapet me nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr ka \u00e7uar thuajse p\u00ebrher\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00eb. \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Jam i shqet\u00ebsuar p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb debat dhe historia nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb inkurajuese. Graham Allison u kthye 2 500 vjet pas n\u00eb Athin\u00ebn dhe Spart\u00ebn antike dhe pa se \u00e7far\u00eb ndodhi kur nj\u00eb fuqi e madhe sfidohet nga nj\u00eb fuqi n\u00eb rritje. Hera e fundit kur kjo ndodhi ting\u00ebllon familjare p\u00ebr gjerman\u00ebt: ishte kur Perandoria Britanike u sfidua nga Gjermania e Kajzerit.<\/p>\n<p>Arsyeja q\u00eb ne shkruam \u201c2034\u201d nuk ishte p\u00ebr t\u00eb parashikuar nj\u00eb konflikt, por p\u00ebr t\u00eb paralajm\u00ebruar njer\u00ebzit. T\u00eb kuptojm\u00eb se \u00e7far\u00eb duhet t\u00eb b\u00ebjm\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb shmangur rr\u00ebshkitjen n\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb madhe.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A ju ka shkuar n\u00eb mendje se po shkruanit di\u00e7ka profetike?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Absolutisht. Ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00ebse marrim parasysh disa prej incidenteve q\u00eb kan\u00eb ndodhur tashm\u00eb. Kam qen\u00eb aty. Kam komanduar destrojer\u00ebt n\u00eb detin e Kin\u00ebs Jugore. E njoh mir\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb situat\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p><strong>N\u00eb librin \u201c2034\u201d Kina ka fituar nj\u00eb supremaci\u00a0kibernetike dhe e d\u00ebmton SHBA-n\u00eb teknologjikisht. Sa realist \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb skenar i till\u00eb, nisur nga fakti se buxheti i mbrojtjes s\u00eb SHBA \u00ebsht\u00eb aktualisht tre her\u00eb m\u00eb i madh sesa ai i Kin\u00ebs?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Dy pika: E para, kush mund ta parashikonte 11 shtatorin? Kush mund ta parashikonte luft\u00ebn 20 vje\u00e7are n\u00eb Afganistan? Kush mund ta parashikonte pandemin\u00eb q\u00eb ka mbyllur shoq\u00ebrit\u00eb tona? Qeniet njer\u00ebzore priren t\u00eb mendojn\u00eb se e nes\u00ebrmja do t\u00eb jet\u00eb si e sotmja. Por ka p\u00ebrher\u00eb thyerje dhe surpriza.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dhe pika e dyt\u00eb?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Kina po shpenzon parat\u00eb e veta me shum\u00eb zgjuar\u00ebsi. Ata jan\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrqendruar \u2013 jo vet\u00ebm n\u00eb arm\u00ebt ofensive kibernetike, por gjithashtu n\u00eb operacionet n\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00eb, raketat hipersonike t\u00eb komanduara dhe teknologjit\u00eb stealth. Kina ka qen\u00eb d\u00ebshmitare sesi SHBA ka shpenzuar triliona dollar\u00eb, n\u00eb dy luft\u00ebra t\u00eb kushtueshme n\u00eb Irak dhe Afganistan dhe ka th\u00ebn\u00eb me vete: \u201c<em>Ne nuk kemi nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb. Nuk kemi p\u00ebr t\u00eb hyr\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00ebra t\u00eb tilla. Ne do t\u00eb shpenzojm\u00eb me shum\u00eb zgjuar\u00ebsi\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>N\u00eb romanin tuaj, arm\u00ebt kibernetike luajn\u00eb nj\u00eb rol t\u00eb ngjash\u00ebm me at\u00eb t\u00eb arm\u00ebve b\u00ebrthamore n\u00eb Luft\u00ebn e Ftoht\u00eb. A \u00ebsht\u00eb e imagjinueshme q\u00eb nj\u00eb dit\u00eb t\u00eb ket\u00eb bisedime p\u00ebr \u00e7armatimin kibernetik, t\u00eb ngjashme me ato mes SHBA dhe Bashkimit Sovjetik rreth 50 vjet m\u00eb par\u00eb?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ne duhet t\u00eb mb\u00ebrrijm\u00eb aty sa m\u00eb par\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb e mundur. Arm\u00ebt kibernetike ofensive jan\u00eb p\u00ebrher\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb afta p\u00ebr paralizimin e komplekseve elektrike, sistemit t\u00eb transportit, uj\u00ebsjell\u00ebsit dhe shkat\u00ebrrimin e sistemeve financiare. P\u00ebr t\u00eb gjitha k\u00ebto arsye, ne duhet shum\u00eb shpejt t\u00eb hyjm\u00eb t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn n\u00eb bisedime mes SHBA, Rusis\u00eb dhe Kin\u00ebs p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje.<\/p>\n<p>Arm\u00ebt b\u00ebrthamore jan\u00eb tjet\u00ebr gj\u00eb. Nj\u00eb raket\u00eb balistike ti mund ta gjurmosh teksa fluturon drejt vendit t\u00ebnd. Por \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb e v\u00ebshti\u00eb t\u00eb dish me sakt\u00ebsi se kush po t\u00eb sulmon n\u00eb mjedisin kibernetik. Dhe p\u00ebr fat t\u00eb keq \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb e leht\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrhap\u00ebsh nj\u00eb teknik\u00eb kibernetike sesa t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtosh nj\u00eb arm\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore masive.<\/p>\n<p>Irani, Korea e Veriut dhe Izraeli po p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsojn\u00eb kapacitetet e tyre n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb fush\u00eb. K\u00ebshtu q\u00eb sa m\u00eb shpejt q\u00eb tre t\u00eb M\u00ebdhenjt\u00eb \u2013 SHBA, Rusia dhe Kina \u2013t\u00eb b\u00ebhen bashk\u00eb dhe vendosin shembullin, aq m\u00eb mir\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Por Kina deklaron se d\u00ebshiron vet\u00ebm t\u00eb kontrolloj\u00eb fqinj\u00ebt e vet n\u00eb detin e Kin\u00ebs Jugore \u2013 si\u00e7 b\u00ebnte SHBA nga fillimi i shekullit t\u00eb 19-t\u00eb n\u00eb Karaibe. \u00c7far\u00eb nuk shkon me k\u00ebt\u00eb argument?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>SHBA nuk pretendonte sovranitet territorial mbi detin e Karaibeve, Gjirin e Meksik\u00ebs dhe uj\u00ebrat e Amerik\u00ebs s\u00eb Jugut. SHBA thoshte: K\u00ebta jan\u00eb fqinj\u00ebt tan\u00eb dhe ne do t\u00eb jemi nj\u00eb fuqi ushtarake k\u00ebtu. Por ne nuk pretendojm\u00eb zot\u00ebrim territorial t\u00eb k\u00ebtyre uj\u00ebrave.<\/p>\n<p>Kina nuk po b\u00ebn k\u00ebt\u00eb. Kjo duhet t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsoj\u00eb komunitetin nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar p\u00ebrtej gjith\u00e7kaje tjet\u00ebr q\u00eb Kina po b\u00ebn. Deti i Kin\u00ebs Jugore \u00ebsht\u00eb gjysma e p\u00ebrmas\u00ebs s\u00eb Europ\u00ebs Per\u00ebndimore. N\u00ebse ne thjesht u themi kinez\u00ebve: dakord, e dim\u00eb q\u00eb nuk keni ambicie real globale, vazhdoni dhe merreni detin e Kin\u00ebs Jugore \u2013 ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb shkat\u00ebrrim, \u00ebsht\u00eb fundi i Ligjit t\u00eb Traktatit t\u00eb Detit. At\u00ebher\u00eb \u00e7do komb do t\u00eb nis\u00eb shpalljen e pretendimeve mbi sip\u00ebrfaqe ujore. Do t\u00eb ishte shembulli i par\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dhe tjetri?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Kina po nd\u00ebrton nj\u00eb flot\u00eb masive. Ka m\u00eb shum\u00eb anije sot sesa SHBA. N\u00ebse gjith\u00e7ka duan kinez\u00ebt, \u00ebsht\u00eb patrullimi i\u00a0detit t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs Jugore \u2013 pse po nd\u00ebrtojn\u00eb aeroplanmbajt\u00ebse b\u00ebrthamore, pse po nd\u00ebrtojn\u00eb luftanije t\u00eb m\u00ebdha? Pse po i dislokojn\u00eb ato n\u00eb detin Balltik dhe n\u00eb Mesdheun Lindor? Pse po nd\u00ebrtojn\u00eb nj\u00eb baz\u00eb n\u00eb Bririn e Afrik\u00ebs?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Kina ka 3 baza ushtarake jasht\u00eb vendit, SHBA ka 800\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e madhe e infrastruktur\u00ebs s\u00eb SHBA jasht\u00eb vendit \u00ebsht\u00eb krijuar p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs s\u00eb aleat\u00ebve tan\u00eb. Kur ne flasim p\u00ebr heqjen e 8.000 trupave nga Gjermania, at\u00ebher\u00eb kjo e fundit nuk e p\u00eblqen nj\u00eb gj\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb. Kjo ndodh edhe n\u00eb Japoni, edhe n\u00eb Koren\u00eb e Jugut? Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb rrjet aleat\u00ebsh, partner\u00ebsh dhe miqsh, nd\u00ebrtuar dhe dal\u00eb nga Lufta e Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore dhe ne jemi aty me kosto dometh\u00ebn\u00ebse tonat sepse aleat\u00ebt tan\u00eb na duan aty. Sa p\u00ebr numrin 800: ka vet\u00ebm rreth 50 baza me r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi ku ka disa mij\u00ebra trupa.<\/p>\n<p><strong>S\u00ebrish m\u00eb shum\u00eb se \u00e7do forc\u00eb tjet\u00ebr\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00cbsht\u00eb ky nj\u00eb argument p\u00ebr reduktimin e pranis\u00eb globale amerikane? Dakord, Donald Trump me siguri e mendonte k\u00ebshtu dhe ai nisi kthimin e trupave n\u00eb SHBA. Ju thash\u00eb, aleat\u00ebt tan\u00eb nuk e p\u00eblqejn\u00eb shum\u00eb nj\u00eb gj\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p>Edhe Kina ka shum\u00eb baza. Me dallimin se ato nuk jan\u00eb ushtarake, por ato kontrollojn\u00eb porte n\u00eb vende si Sri Lanka. Kina sapo ka firmosur nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme me Iranin \u2013 q\u00eb figuron n\u00eb tekst si nj\u00eb aleat shum\u00eb i ngusht\u00eb i Kin\u00ebs. Mendoj se \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb realiste p\u00ebr t\u2019u arritur nga mesi i shekullit.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A po kopjon Kina, SHBA?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Po mban sh\u00ebnim at\u00eb se \u00e7far\u00eb SHBA ka b\u00ebr\u00eb. N\u00ebse Kina thot\u00eb se nuk ka tradit\u00eb n\u00eb kontrollin global, kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb e sakt\u00eb n\u00eb kontekstin historik t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs. Por ajo \u00e7far\u00eb Kina po b\u00ebn tani bie ndesh me k\u00ebt\u00eb deklarat\u00eb. Ky \u00easht\u00eb sinjal alarmi p\u00ebr ne. N\u00ebse d\u00ebgjon presidentin Xi Jinping kur ai flet p\u00ebr at\u00eb se ku do t\u00eb jet\u00eb Kina n\u00eb mesin e k\u00ebtij shekulli, p\u00ebr mua ting\u00ebllon shum\u00eb si nj\u00eb prani globale dometh\u00ebn\u00ebse.<\/p>\n<p>Kjo nuk do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se ne duhet t\u00eb shkojm\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00eb. Ne nuk duhet t\u00eb shkojm\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00eb, ne duhet ta shmangim nj\u00eb gj\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb. Por do t\u00eb ishte budallall\u00ebk t\u00eb mbyllim syt\u00eb e t\u00eb themi se Kina nuk ka p\u00ebr t\u00eb qen\u00eb nj\u00eb problem.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Si ish-Komandant Suprem Aleat n\u00eb Europ\u00eb, drejtues kryesor i NATO-s, mendoni se Per\u00ebndimi ka nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb Organizat\u00eb t\u00eb Traktatit t\u00eb Paq\u00ebsorit p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbajtur n\u00ebn kontroll Kin\u00ebn?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Nuk mendoj se Azia e dor\u00ebzon veten n\u00eb struktur\u00ebn formale t\u00eb NATO-s. Por mendoj se mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje t\u00eb p\u00ebrshtatura n\u00ebse mund t\u00eb themi k\u00ebshtu. Nj\u00eb shembull i mir\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb ajo q\u00eb quhet QUAD: SHBA, Japoni, Indi dhe Australi.<\/p>\n<p>Nuk mund t\u00eb gjesh kat\u00ebr kombe q\u00eb jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb ndrysh\u00ebm se k\u00ebta t\u00eb kat\u00ebrt por ata jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb bashk\u00eb dhe po sigurojn\u00eb nj\u00eb balanc\u00eb ndaj k\u00ebtij kapaciteti n\u00eb rritje t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs. T\u00eb kat\u00ebrt shohin Kin\u00ebn dhe kan\u00eb disa shqet\u00ebsime: India, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb asaj q\u00eb ndodh n\u00eb Himalaje, Japonia p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb mosmarr\u00ebveshjeve territoriale me Kin\u00ebn mbi ishujt Senkaku, Australi p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb praktikave tregtare kineze.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Gjermania po planifikon t\u00eb d\u00ebrgoj\u00eb nj\u00eb fregat\u00eb n\u00eb Paq\u00ebsorin Per\u00ebndimor k\u00ebt\u00eb fund viti. Mendoni se kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb ide e mir\u00eb?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>K\u00ebto jan\u00eb vendime t\u00eb popullit gjerman dhe kancelares Angela Merkel p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilat un\u00eb kam admirim t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonsh\u00ebm. Nga perspektiva e SHBA-s\u00eb, ne jemi t\u00eb lumtur, madje entuzist\u00eb kur aleat\u00ebt tan\u00eb zgjedhin t\u00eb veprojn\u00eb me ne n\u00eb Detin e Kin\u00ebs Jugore.<\/p>\n<p>I d\u00ebrgon nj\u00eb sinjal Kin\u00ebs se nuk i zot\u00ebron k\u00ebto uj\u00ebra. K\u00ebto jan\u00eb uj\u00ebra nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare. \u00cbsht\u00eb shum\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme kur shtete t\u00eb tjera demonstrojn\u00eb me anijet e tyre. N\u00eb fakt kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb ajo q\u00eb duhet t\u00eb b\u00ebni: Thjesht lundroni n\u00eb ato uj\u00ebra, val\u00ebviteni atje flamurin gjerman, fluturoni helikopterin tuaj dhe ndizeni radarin tuaj ushtarak.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Si mund t\u00eb nd\u00ebrpritet nj\u00eb spirale p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimi?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>N\u00eb nivelin taktik ne kemi nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr m\u00eb shum\u00eb mekanizma komunikimi. Nuk ka nj\u00eb kufi t\u00eb nxeht\u00eb si\u00e7 ndodhte gjat\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Ftoht\u00eb mes Bashkimit Sovjetik dhe SHBA-ve. Nuk ka nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje formale si\u00e7 kishim gjat\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Ftoht\u00eb p\u00ebr kontrollin e incidenteve n\u00eb det\u2026 Kjo do t\u00eb krijonte zona tampon mes platformave ushtarake. Do t\u00eb thosha: ja sa af\u00ebr mund t\u00eb fluturoj\u00eb nj\u00eb avion ndaj nj\u00eb anijeje ushtarake, k\u00ebtu nuk mund ta ndez\u00ebsh nj\u00eb radar ushtarak.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00c7far\u00eb duhet p\u00ebrtej nivelit taktik, n\u00eb nj\u00eb nivel strategjik dhe politik?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>T\u00eb dyja pal\u00ebt kan\u00eb nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb strategji q\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrballen me tjetrin; strategji q\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb e qart\u00eb dhe t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktoj\u00eb vijat e kuqe. Ne po ashtu kemi nevoj\u00eb t\u00eb analizojm\u00eb strukturat e aleanc\u00ebs. Nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e madhe e asaj pse Europa u p\u00ebrfshi n\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb bot\u00ebrore n\u00eb vitin 1914 ishte ekzistenca e nj\u00eb rrjeti traktatesh q\u00eb vinte shtetet n\u00ebn nj\u00eb presion reciprok. Dhe n\u00eb fund, ka nj\u00eb bashk\u00ebsi zgjidhjesh teknologjike q\u00eb kan\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb me mbik\u00ebqyrjen, hap\u00ebsir\u00ebn, v\u00ebzhgimin shikimin dhe evidentimin e an\u00ebs tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb asaj q\u00eb sheh \u2013 protokolle t\u00eb cilat krijojn\u00eb mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e,frenimit. Traktati i Qiejve t\u00eb Hapur, p.sh, nga i cili administrata Trump u largua n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb budallaqe. Ku \u00ebsht\u00eb marr\u00ebveshja e Qiejve t\u00eb Hapur n\u00eb Azi?<\/p>\n<p>\u2014\u2014<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Botuar sot n\u00eb DITA. P\u00ebrkthimi me shkurtime, nga ResPublica<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A do ket\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb madhe n\u00eb 5-10 vitet e ardhshme? Nj\u00eb lib\u00ebr profetik dhe nj\u00eb intervist\u00eb n\u00eb Spiegel-in gjerman q\u00eb ka ngjallur shum\u00eb debate 8 maji 2021 \u201c2034\u201d quhet libri me dy autor\u00eb, shkrimtarin Elliot Ackerman, nj\u00eb veteran i luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Afganistan dhe ish-kreun suprem t\u00eb Forcave Aleate n\u00eb Europ\u00eb, Admiralin James Stavridis. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":47323,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[27,35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47322","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blogu-i-udhetarit","category-shoqerore"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/unnamed-2.jpg?fit=512%2C223&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5Z6wp-cjg","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":55736,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/rusia-e-putinit-do-te-behet-koloni-e-kines-per-te-mbijetuar-pas-luftes-ne-ukraine\/","url_meta":{"origin":47322,"position":0},"title":"Rusia e Putinit do t\u00eb b\u00ebhet koloni e Kin\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbijetuar pas luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb\u201d","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"March 21, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Rusia e Putinit do t\u00eb b\u00ebhet koloni e Kin\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbijetuar pas luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb\u201d - 20.03.22 Nj\u00eb analist lufte shprehet se Kina do t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitoj\u00eb nga kriza financiare e Rusis\u00eb pasi u godit me nj\u00eb gam\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb sanksionesh ekonomike p\u00ebr pushtimin e Ukrain\u00ebs Rusia e\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Capture-166-770x433-1.jpg?fit=770%2C433&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Capture-166-770x433-1.jpg?fit=770%2C433&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Capture-166-770x433-1.jpg?fit=770%2C433&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Capture-166-770x433-1.jpg?fit=770%2C433&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1223,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/libri-album-51-piktore-shqiptare\/","url_meta":{"origin":47322,"position":1},"title":"Libri-Album \u201c51 piktor\u00eb shqiptar\u00eb\u201d","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"January 13, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Libri-Album \u201c51 piktor\u00eb shqiptar\u00eb\u201d\u00a0 \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrmbledhje veprash dhe faktesh, \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb botim shum\u00eb serioz dhe i kushtuesh\u00ebm. Botimi ka form\u00ebn e nj\u00eb historie arti dhe studiuesja Suzana Varvarica Kuka dhe koleksionisti Shehaj e pan\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrshtatshme q\u00eb libri t\u00eb ket\u00eb dy tituj, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt lidhen e funksionojn\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00ebri-tjetrin.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Arte&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Arte","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/arte\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/51-piktore-218x300.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":52610,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/doracaku-per-camerine-nje-liber-i-vecante%cc%88-per-te-gjithe\/","url_meta":{"origin":47322,"position":2},"title":"Doracaku p\u00ebr \u00c7am\u00ebrin\u00eb: &#8211; Nj\u00eb lib\u00ebr i ve\u00e7ante\u0308 p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"December 22, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Doracaku p\u00ebr \u00c7am\u00ebrin\u00eb: - Nj\u00eb lib\u00ebr i ve\u00e7ante\u0308 p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb - 07\/12\/21 Gazeta mapo \u201cDoracaku p\u00ebr \u00c7am\u00ebrin\u00eb\u201d \u00ebsht\u00eb libri i fundit q\u00eb Nexhat Merxhushi dhe Raimonda Shundi kan\u00eb nxjerr\u00eb n\u00eb drit\u00eb k\u00ebto dit\u00eb festash komb\u00ebtare. \u00cbsht\u00eb nj\u00eb lib\u00ebr ku preken segmente ky\u00e7e t\u00eb historis\u00eb \u00e7ame, mbi at\u00eb \u00e7ka ka\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/kopertina.jpg?fit=1079%2C584&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/kopertina.jpg?fit=1079%2C584&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/kopertina.jpg?fit=1079%2C584&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/kopertina.jpg?fit=1079%2C584&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/kopertina.jpg?fit=1079%2C584&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":20040,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/hulumtimet-e-fundit-mbi-opusin-onufrian\/","url_meta":{"origin":47322,"position":3},"title":"Hulumtimet e fundit mbi Opusin onufrian. &#8211;","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"April 22, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Hulumtimet e fundit mbi Opusin onufrian. - Nga: Moikom Zeqo \u00a0Motive dhe sinopse historike \u00a0Po kumtojm\u00eb p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebna t\u00eb reja shum\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme p\u00ebr krijimtarin\u00eb e Onufrit t\u00eb shekullit XVI. I panjohur \u00ebsht\u00eb deri m\u00eb sot programi ikonografik i kish\u00ebs s\u00eb \u201cShfytyrimit\u201d dhe i kish\u00ebs s\u00eb\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Arte&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Arte","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/arte\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/N_M_Onufri2_big-905x395.jpg?fit=905%2C395&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/N_M_Onufri2_big-905x395.jpg?fit=905%2C395&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/N_M_Onufri2_big-905x395.jpg?fit=905%2C395&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/N_M_Onufri2_big-905x395.jpg?fit=905%2C395&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":27343,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/interneti-apo-libri\/","url_meta":{"origin":47322,"position":4},"title":"Interneti apo libri  &#8230; &#8211;","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"October 26, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Njer\u00ebzimi sot \u00ebsht\u00eb mjaft i lidhur me internetin, mjafton t\u00eb ndalojm\u00eb nj\u00eb moment dhe t\u00eb shohim p\u00ebrqark, njer\u00ebz kudo m\u00eb kok\u00ebn e ulur dhe syt\u00eb e fiksuar mbi nj\u00eb ekran smartphon-i, lap-top apo i-pad. N\u00ebse ulemi n\u00eb nj\u00eb kafe nuk do t\u00eb shohim gj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr vet\u00ebm njer\u00ebz, sidomos t\u00eb rinj,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/Interneti-dhe-Libri.jpg?fit=640%2C311&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/Interneti-dhe-Libri.jpg?fit=640%2C311&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/Interneti-dhe-Libri.jpg?fit=640%2C311&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8617,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/jemi-qe-pa-ardhur-deti-me-poetin-lefter-cipa\/","url_meta":{"origin":47322,"position":5},"title":"Jemi q\u00eb pa ardhur deti \u2013me poetin Lefter \u00c7ipa\u2026 &#8211;","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"June 9, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Jemi q\u00eb pa ardhur deti \u2013me poetin Lefter \u00c7ipa\u2026 Libri \u201cJemi q\u00eb pa ardhur deti\u201d, i Akri \u00c7ip\u00ebs dhe botuar nga OMBRA GVG \u00ebsht\u00eb, si\u00e7 shkuhet n\u00eb faqen e par\u00eb t\u00eb brendshme: \u201cnj\u00eb dialog unik i poetit me nipin e tij\u201d. Q\u00eb mua m\u00eb duket se shpreh nj\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Arte&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Arte","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/arte\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/Lefter-Cipaa-300x277-300x179.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47322","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47322"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47322\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":47324,"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47322\/revisions\/47324"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47323"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47322"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47322"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47322"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}