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V<\/strong>arf\u00ebria kap gati gjysm\u00ebn e popullsis\u00eb, ekonomia n\u00eb r\u00ebnie dramatike<\/strong><\/p>\n – 27\/08\/20<\/p>\n Vler\u00ebsimet e Bank\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore, p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb shqiptare, parashikojn\u00eb nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie me 11 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb shqiptare q\u00eb e \u00e7on nivelin e rritjes ekonomike n\u00eb -9% p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb vitit 2020. Gati gjysma e popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb vendit, zhytet n\u00eb varf\u00ebri. P\u00ebr ekspert\u00ebt, kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb situat\u00eb katastrofike, duke pasur parasysh, borxhin q\u00eb ka kap\u00ebrcyer shifr\u00ebn e 80 %, falimentimin e mij\u00ebra bizneseve, munges\u00ebn e investimeve apo dhe vitin 2021 q\u00eb fillon si vit elektoral. Akoma m\u00eb e zymt\u00eb b\u00ebhet situata n\u00eb rast se do p\u00ebrjetojm\u00eb n\u00eb vjesht\u00eb nj\u00eb rimbyllje t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb t\u00eb imponuar nga shifrat.<\/strong><\/p>\n Vler\u00ebsimet e nj\u00eb raporti t\u00eb Bank\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore, pas k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs p\u00ebr 80 milion\u00eb euro borxh nga ana e qeveris\u00eb shqiptare, thon\u00eb se r\u00ebnia ekonomike p\u00ebr vitin 2020 do shkoj\u00eb n\u00eb shifrat e \u2013 9% nga \u2013 7% q\u00eb ishte vler\u00ebsimi fillestar. Kjo do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se gati gjysma e popullsis\u00eb, rreth 40% e saj do zhytet n\u00eb nivelin e t\u00eb ardhurave prej 5.5 dollar\u00eb dit\u00eb q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb dhe niveli zyrtar i varf\u00ebris\u00eb. \u201cNgrirja e nj\u00eb pjese t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb gjat\u00eb pandemis\u00eb ka zhytur Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb n\u00eb recesion, duke \u00e7uar n\u00eb nj\u00eb rivler\u00ebsim tonin me ulje p\u00ebr rritjen ekonomike, me m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 11 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje p\u00ebr 2020-n\u201d. Sipas raportit, kriza do rris\u00eb borxhin n\u00eb mbi 80 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb prodhimit komb\u00ebtar. \u201cKriza do t\u00eb rris\u00eb borxhin publik mbi 80% t\u00eb prodhimit komb\u00ebtar dhe n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kontekst k\u00ebrkohen reforma t\u00eb thella p\u00ebr t\u00eb rritur kapacitetet e mbledhjes s\u00eb taksave dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar hap\u00ebsira fiskale n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb borxhi t\u00eb ul\u00ebt\u201d, thuhet n\u00eb raport.<\/p>\n Kriza<\/strong><\/p>\n Por \u00e7far\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie e ekonomis\u00eb me 11 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje, pasi k\u00ebtu llogaritet dhe humbja e rritjes ekonomike prej 2 p\u00ebrqind\u00ebsh. Ekspert\u00ebt mendojn\u00eb se r\u00ebnia mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb dhe m\u00eb e madhe nd\u00ebrsa sqarojn\u00eb p\u00ebr MAPO se nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie e till\u00eb p\u00ebr vendin ton\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb katastrofike dhe nuk mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb vend p\u00ebr optimiz\u00ebm. Shifrat e ver\u00ebs kur mendohej nj\u00eb ndryshim i situat\u00ebs nuk ishin fort premtuese, turizmi i munguar, mungesa e likuiditeteve nga ana e biznesit, shkurtimi i vendeve t\u00eb pun\u00ebs, rrezikojn\u00eb t\u00eb sjellin nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb madhe n\u00eb muajt n\u00eb vazhdim. \u201cNj\u00eb r\u00ebnie prej 11 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje, do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se jemi n\u00eb situat\u00eb katastrofike q\u00eb do ndihet akoma m\u00eb shum\u00eb me mbylljen e sezonit veror. Kjo do t\u00eb thot\u00eb as m\u00eb shum\u00eb e as m\u00eb pak se thellim t\u00eb m\u00ebtejsh\u00ebm t\u00eb varf\u00ebris\u00eb, falimentim n\u00eb mas\u00eb t\u00eb bizneseve dhe humbje e vendeve t\u00eb pun\u00ebs n\u00eb muajt e vjesht\u00ebs\u201d, shprehen ekspert\u00ebt. Por m\u00eb s\u00eb shumti ata i druhen nj\u00eb mbylljeje tjet\u00ebr, si ajo q\u00eb provuam n\u00eb muajt mars-prill dhe gjysm\u00ebn e majit. \u201cNuk na mbetet gj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr vet\u00ebm se t\u00eb lutemi q\u00eb shifrat e pandemis\u00eb mos na imponojn\u00eb nj\u00eb mbyllje tjet\u00ebr, pasi mund ta themi me plot goj\u00ebn se ky do ishte falimentimi p\u00ebrfundimtar jo vet\u00ebm i bizneseve por dhe i familjeve shqiptare\u201d, shprehen ata.<\/p>\n Viti 2021<\/strong><\/p>\n Por situata nuk tregon optimiz\u00ebm as p\u00ebr vitin 2021. Hendeku i shkaktuar n\u00eb ekonomi \u00ebsht\u00eb tejet i madh, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb viti tjet\u00ebr nis si vit elektoral. \u201cImagjinoni nj\u00eb moment, ne kemi nj\u00eb rritje ekonomike jo m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 2 apo 2.5 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje n\u00eb vit. Me \u00e7far\u00eb do z\u00ebvend\u00ebsohet humbja. Nuk ka investime, nuk ka shp\u00ebrndarje t\u00eb ardhurash. Duhet pasur parasysh se viti i ardhsh\u00ebm \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb vit elektoral, dhe dihet sjellja e pushtetit n\u00eb k\u00ebto raste. Pra, humnera ekonomike \u00ebsht\u00eb e pashmangshme\u201d, shprehen ekspert\u00ebt. Projeksionet variojn\u00eb sipas disa skenar\u00ebve, nga m\u00eb optimisti q\u00eb merr n\u00eb konsiderat\u00eb rikuperimin me nj\u00eb rritje 8% t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb vitin q\u00eb vjen, te m\u00eb pesimisti, i cili parashikon q\u00eb efektet e pandemis\u00eb n\u00eb rikuperim do ndikojn\u00eb negativisht p\u00ebrtej pes\u00eb viteve, ku zinxhir\u00ebt e furnizimit do mbeten t\u00eb p\u00ebr\u00e7ara dhe produktiviteti sh\u00ebnon ulje sistematike, ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb projeksioni i dyt\u00eb. Muaji prill i k\u00ebtij viti sipas statistikave sh\u00ebnoi dhe goditjen m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00eb ku 60 mij\u00eb persona humb\u00ebn pun\u00ebn.<\/p>\n Bizneset<\/strong><\/p>\n Revista \u201cMonitor\u201d raporton se vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr periudh\u00ebn maj-korrik, bizneset q\u00eb kan\u00eb kaluar n\u00eb statusin pasiv n\u00eb Tiran\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb 54 % m\u00eb e lart\u00eb se e nj\u00ebjta periudh\u00eb e vitit t\u00eb kaluar. N\u00eb 2 jav\u00ebt e para t\u00eb korrikut, subjektet q\u00eb k\u00ebrkuan t\u00eb pezullonin aktivitetin ishin dy her\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb larta se nj\u00eb vit m\u00eb par\u00eb, ndikuar dhe nga sezoni i dob\u00ebt turistik. Bizneset e mbyllura, p\u00ebrqendrohen n\u00eb Qarkun e Tiran\u00ebs, Durr\u00ebsit, Elbasanit dhe Vlor\u00ebs. M\u00eb t\u00eb prekur nga kriza jan\u00eb subjektet e reja, t\u00eb ngritura 5 muaj apo 1 vit para pandemis\u00eb, si\u00e7 pohojn\u00eb edhe vet\u00eb sip\u00ebrmarr\u00ebsit. \u201cMonitor\u201d zhvilloi nj\u00eb anketim me disa prej subjekteve q\u00eb kan\u00eb kaluar n\u00eb status pasiv, bazuar n\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrzgjedhje rast\u00ebsore t\u00eb list\u00ebs s\u00eb p\u00ebrdit\u00ebsuar nga tatimet, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb ekspert\u00ebt parashikojn\u00eb se ky num\u00ebr do t\u00eb rritet akoma n\u00eb muajt e vjesht\u00ebs.<\/p>\n \u201cBanka Bot\u00ebrore ka rivler\u00ebsuar goditjen q\u00eb do t\u00eb jap\u00eb n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb shqiptare pandemia e COVID-19. Sipas ekspert\u00ebve t\u00eb bank\u00ebs, mendohet se recesioni k\u00ebt\u00eb vit do t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb i lart\u00eb se 9%, nd\u00ebrsa varf\u00ebria mund t\u00eb rritet me 2 deri n\u00eb 5 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje, \u00e7ka do t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb q\u00eb af\u00ebrsisht 40% e popullat\u00ebs t\u00eb jetoj\u00eb me m\u00eb pak se 5.5 dollar\u00eb n\u00eb dit\u00eb.\u201d<\/p>\n Vler\u00ebsimet dalin n\u00eb nj\u00eb raport t\u00eb posa\u00e7\u00ebm t\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb nga Banka Bot\u00ebrore, pas k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs s\u00eb qeveris\u00eb shqiptare p\u00ebr t\u00eb marr\u00eb nj\u00eb kredi t\u00eb but\u00eb me vler\u00eb 80 milion\u00eb dollar\u00eb nga ky institucion, e cila do t\u00eb sh\u00ebrbej\u00eb si mb\u00ebshtetje buxhetore p\u00ebr forcimin e mbledhjes s\u00eb taksave, frenimin e rritjes s\u00eb kredive me probleme si pasoj\u00eb e pandemis\u00eb, hapjen e vendeve t\u00eb reja t\u00eb pun\u00ebs dhe amortizimin e risqeve t\u00eb rritjes s\u00eb borxhit publik.<\/p>\n N\u00eb raportin rajonal t\u00eb botuar n\u00eb fund t\u00eb muajit Prill, Banka Bot\u00ebrore vler\u00ebsoi se tkurrja e ekonomis\u00eb shqiptare do t\u00eb ishte n\u00eb skenarin m\u00eb negativ -7%, nd\u00ebrsa tashm\u00eb e ka ulur n\u00eb -9% duke e barazuar me parashikimin e b\u00ebr\u00eb nga BERZH.<\/p>\n