{"id":35226,"date":"2020-05-30T09:22:30","date_gmt":"2020-05-30T09:22:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/?p=35226"},"modified":"2020-05-30T09:24:24","modified_gmt":"2020-05-30T09:24:24","slug":"banka-boterore-varferia-ne-shqiperi-do-rritet-nga-covid-mund-te-arrije-ne-48","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/banka-boterore-varferia-ne-shqiperi-do-rritet-nga-covid-mund-te-arrije-ne-48\/","title":{"rendered":"Banka Bot\u00ebrore: – Varf\u00ebria n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri do rritet nga Covid, mund t\u00eb arrij\u00eb n\u00eb 48%"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

Banka Bot\u00ebrore: – Varf\u00ebria n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri do rritet nga Covid, mund t\u00eb arrij\u00eb n\u00eb 48%<\/strong><\/p>\n

30 maji2020<\/p>\n

Shqip\u00ebria mbetet nj\u00eb nga vendet m\u00eb t\u00eb c\u00ebnueshme nga pasojat e Covid-19, q\u00eb lidhen me karakteristikat e ekonomis\u00eb s\u00eb saj, si niveli i lart\u00eb i vet\u00ebpun\u00ebsimit dhe informalitetit. Shkalla e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb pritet t\u00eb arrij\u00eb nga 40% q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb sot, deri n\u00eb 48% (numri i pesonave q\u00eb jetojn\u00eb me m\u00eb pak se 5.5 dollar\u00eb n\u00eb dit\u00eb, sipas fuqis\u00eb bler\u00ebse).<\/p>\n

Sipas nj\u00eb raporti t\u00eb fundit t\u00eb bank\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore, q\u00eb vler\u00ebson se si COVID-19 Mund t\u00eb Ndikoj\u00eb n\u00eb Varf\u00ebrin\u00eb dhe Mir\u00ebq\u00ebnien e Familjeve n\u00eb Ballkanin Per\u00ebndimor, Masat e qeveris\u00eb n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje ndaj kriz\u00ebs, t\u00eb cilat ndihmojn\u00eb firmat n\u00eb sektorin formal t\u00eb ruajn\u00eb vendet e pun\u00ebs nuk do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb arrijn\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt te pun\u00ebsuarit informal\u00eb. Shum\u00eb prej k\u00ebtyre t\u00eb pun\u00ebsuarve informal\u00eb ose t\u00eb t\u00eb vet\u00ebpun\u00ebsuarve nuk jan\u00eb p\u00ebrfitues t\u00eb t\u00eb asistenc\u00ebs sociale, mjetit t\u00eb fundit mbrojt\u00ebs t\u00eb rezervuar p\u00ebr m\u00eb t\u00eb varf\u00ebrit, duke i l\u00ebn\u00eb ata t\u00eb pambrojtur. Rreth 14 deri 33 p\u00ebr qind e t\u00eb pun\u00ebsuarve n\u00eb sektor\u00ebt shum\u00eb t\u00eb prekur nga kriza e COVID19 n\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb e Ballkanit Per\u00ebndimor jan\u00eb t\u00eb vet\u00ebpun\u00ebsuar, e p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye ata jan\u00eb edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb cenuesh\u00ebmit (Figura 1). Kjo p\u00ebrqindje \u00ebsht\u00eb ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht e lart\u00eb n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri dhe Kosov\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Gati nj\u00eb e treta e pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve n\u00eb sektor\u00ebt e prekur nga kriza, kryesisht n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri dhe Kosov\u00eb, jan\u00eb t\u00eb vet\u00ebpun\u00ebsuar dhe ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht t\u00eb rrezikuar ndaj humbjes s\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave.<\/p>\n

Varf\u00ebria mund t\u00eb arrij\u00eb n\u00eb 48%<\/p>\n

Shqip\u00ebria: Kriza e shkaktuar nga COVID-19 dhe masat kufizuese pritet t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbysin arritjet e fundit n\u00eb drejtim t\u00eb reduktimit t\u00eb varf\u00ebris\u00eb n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri. N\u00eb Mars, Shqip\u00ebria vendosi t\u00eb mbyll\u00eb hotelet, teatrot dhe aktivitetet e tregtimit t\u00eb artikujve jo-jetik si dhe kufizoi l\u00ebvizjen e njer\u00ebzve si brenda ashtu dhe jasht\u00eb vendit. Shum\u00eb sektor\u00eb t\u00eb industris\u00eb, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb tekstilet, minierat, qendrat telefonike dhe nd\u00ebrtimi, u detyruan t\u00eb zvog\u00eblojn\u00eb veprimtarin\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb zbatimit t\u00eb masave p\u00ebr distancim social por edhe p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb r\u00ebnies s\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs si rezultat i kolapsit t\u00eb porosive p\u00ebr eksport. Ka gjasa q\u00eb edhe emigrant\u00ebt shqiptar\u00eb t\u00eb preken nga kjo kriz\u00eb globale, e cila \u00e7on n\u00eb reduktim t\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave e p\u00ebr rrjedhoj\u00eb edhe t\u00eb remitancave.<\/p>\n

Sipas simulimeve t\u00eb kryera p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb sh\u00ebnim vler\u00ebsohet se shkalla e varf\u00ebris\u00eb n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri mund t\u00eb rritet me 4 deri n\u00eb 8 pp, duke shkuar n\u00eb rreth 40 p\u00ebr qind n\u00eb skenarin e par\u00eb dhe 44 p\u00ebrqind n\u00eb skenarin e dyt\u00eb. K\u00ebshtu pra, sipas skenarit m\u00eb optimist, varf\u00ebria do t\u00eb arrinte n\u00eb nivelin e vitit 2012 dhe, sipas skenarit m\u00eb pesimist, ajo do t\u00eb ishte e barabart\u00eb me nivelin e vitit 2005.<\/p>\n

Meqen\u00ebse shumica e njer\u00ebzve q\u00eb punojn\u00eb n\u00eb bujq\u00ebsi jan\u00eb tashm\u00eb t\u00eb varf\u00ebr, dhe simulimi nuk supozon ulje t\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave n\u00eb bujq\u00ebsi, rritja e varf\u00ebris\u00eb do t\u00eb vij\u00eb kryesisht si rezultat i njer\u00ebzve n\u00eb qytete t\u00eb cil\u00ebt punojn\u00eb n\u00eb sektorin e sh\u00ebrbimeve dhe pritet t\u00eb humbasin nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb konsiderueshme t\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave t\u00eb tyre.<\/p>\n

Simulimet p\u00ebr Ballkanin<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sipas vler\u00ebsimeve t\u00eb Bank\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore p\u00ebr Ballkanin, humbjet n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhura ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrehen n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb segmentin e shp\u00ebrndarjes s\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave.<\/p>\n

T\u00eb ardhurat mesatare t\u00eb familjeve supozohen t\u00eb bien nga 3 deri n\u00eb 12 p\u00ebr qind n\u00eb t\u00eb gjasht\u00eb vendet e rajonit. Figura 4 ilustron r\u00ebnien n\u00eb segmentet e shp\u00ebrndarjes s\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb COVID-19.<\/p>\n

Humbjet n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhura p\u00ebr individ\u00ebt dhe familjet n\u00eb kuintilin m\u00eb t\u00eb varf\u00ebr mund t\u00eb variojn\u00eb nga 3 p\u00ebr qind n\u00eb BH deri n\u00eb 5 p\u00ebr qind n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb sipas skenarit 1, ose do t\u00eb dyfishohen sipas skenarit 2. T\u00eb varf\u00ebrit n\u00eb shumic\u00ebn e vendeve t\u00eb Ballkanit Per\u00ebndimor, n\u00eb krahasim me pjes\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb, mb\u00ebshteten m\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhura t\u00eb ndryshme nga puna dhe m\u00eb pak n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhura nga pun\u00ebsimi n\u00eb sektor\u00ebt m\u00eb t\u00eb prekur nga COVID-19. Megjithat\u00eb, duke qen\u00eb se familjet e varfra nisen nga nj\u00eb baz\u00eb e ul\u00ebt e t\u00eb ardhurave q\u00eb para kriz\u00ebs, humbja e t\u00eb ardhurave mund t\u00eb v\u00ebr\u00eb n\u00eb rrezik aft\u00ebsin\u00eb e tyre p\u00ebr t\u00eb plot\u00ebsuar nevojat baz\u00eb dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb investuar n\u00eb fazat kritike t\u00eb zhvillimit njer\u00ebzor. Personat n\u00eb kuintilin e dyt\u00eb deri n\u00eb at\u00eb t\u00eb pest\u00eb do t\u00eb p\u00ebrballen me ulje m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha t\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave, pasi t\u00eb ardhurat q\u00eb vijn\u00eb nga sektor\u00ebt m\u00eb t\u00eb prekur nga kriza p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb totalit t\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave t\u00eb tyre.<\/p>\n

Gazeta Dita<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Banka Bot\u00ebrore: – Varf\u00ebria n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri do rritet nga Covid, mund t\u00eb arrij\u00eb n\u00eb 48% 30 maji2020 Shqip\u00ebria mbetet nj\u00eb nga vendet m\u00eb t\u00eb c\u00ebnueshme nga pasojat e Covid-19, q\u00eb lidhen me karakteristikat e ekonomis\u00eb s\u00eb saj, si niveli i lart\u00eb i vet\u00ebpun\u00ebsimit dhe informalitetit. Shkalla e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb pritet t\u00eb arrij\u00eb nga 40% q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":35227,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[27,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35226","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blogu-i-udhetarit","category-njoftime-shtypi"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/ndertesas-tregu-905x450-1.jpg?fit=905%2C450&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5Z6wp-9aa","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":100588,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/jonathan-pano-shpopullimi-nuk-eshte-rastesi-por-nje-axhende-e-qeverise\/","url_meta":{"origin":35226,"position":0},"title":"Jonathan Pano: – Shpopullimi nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb rast\u00ebsi, por nj\u00eb axhend\u00eb e qeveris\u00eb","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"May 22, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"22 Maji 2026 I ftuar n\u00eb nj\u00eb studio televizive Jonathan Pano, an\u00ebtar i K\u00ebshillit Bashkiak t\u00eb Tiran\u00ebs nga radh\u00ebt e opozit\u00ebs, ngriti alarmin p\u00ebr ritmet e shpopullimit n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri, duke iu referuar t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb Eurostat dhe analizave t\u00eb ekspert\u00ebve t\u00eb demografis\u00eb. 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