{"id":105933,"date":"2026-09-04T02:35:01","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T02:35:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/?p=105933"},"modified":"2026-09-04T02:35:01","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T02:35:01","slug":"rreziqet-kryesore-ekonomike-globale-qe-duhen-monitoruar-ne-gjysmen-e-dyte-te-vitit-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/rreziqet-kryesore-ekonomike-globale-qe-duhen-monitoruar-ne-gjysmen-e-dyte-te-vitit-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Rreziqet kryesore ekonomike globale q\u00eb duhen monitoruar n\u00eb gjysm\u00ebn e dyt\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

4 Shtator 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pas gjasht\u00eb muajsh t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktuar nga lufta, nj\u00eb goditje e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe nj\u00eb tregti e ethshme e lidhur me inteligjenc\u00ebn artificiale, ekonomist\u00ebt thon\u00eb se pjesa e mbetur e vitit varet nga nj\u00eb zinxhir rreziqesh t\u00eb nd\u00ebrlidhura, ku paqja e brisht\u00eb mes SHBA-s\u00eb dhe Iranit \u00ebsht\u00eb faktori ky\u00e7.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sipas nj\u00eb analize t\u00eb re nga Oxford Economics, gjysma e dyt\u00eb e vitit mb\u00ebshtetet mbi nj\u00eb zinxhir delikat \u201cdominosh\u201d dhe fakti n\u00ebse marr\u00ebveshja e paqes mes SHBA-s\u00eb dhe Iranit do t\u00eb q\u00ebndroj\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb elementi q\u00eb p\u00ebrcakton se si do t\u00eb bien t\u00eb tjerat.<\/p>\n

\u201cQ\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebria e saj do t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktoj\u00eb n\u00ebse ekonomia globale do t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitoj\u00eb nga nj\u00eb nxitje dezinflacioniste e udh\u00ebhequr nga energjia apo do t\u00eb p\u00ebrballet me nj\u00eb goditje t\u00eb dyt\u00eb t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs\u201d, deklaroi n\u00eb raport kryeekonomisti global Ryan Sweet, duke e quajtur marr\u00ebveshjen \u201cdomino\u201d ky\u00e7e q\u00eb do t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktoj\u00eb n\u00ebse rreziqet e tjera do t\u00eb p\u00ebrforcohen apo zbuten\u201d.<\/p>\n

Kompania e konsulenc\u00ebs pret q\u00eb ekonomia globale t\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtohet, duke parashikuar nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb analizuar prej 3,1% n\u00eb gjysm\u00ebn e dyt\u00eb, kundrejt nj\u00eb niveli t\u00eb vler\u00ebsuar prej 1,6% n\u00eb gjysm\u00ebn e par\u00eb, e nxitur kryesisht nga nafta m\u00eb e lir\u00eb, e cila do t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurat e familjeve, megjith\u00ebse Sweet i vler\u00ebson gjasat p\u00ebr arritjen e nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshjeje t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme si \u201cbaras me hedhjen e nj\u00eb monedhe\u201d.<\/p>\n

N\u00ebse arm\u00ebpushimi q\u00ebndron, Oxford Economics parashikon q\u00eb nafta bruto Brent t\u00eb kushtoj\u00eb mesatarisht n\u00eb nivelin e ul\u00ebt t\u00eb 70 dollar\u00ebve p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i, duke zbutur inflacionin dhe kushtet financiare n\u00eb tregjet n\u00eb zhvillim dhe n\u00eb vler\u00ebsimet e kompanive teknologjike.<\/p>\n

N\u00ebse ai prishet, pasojat nuk do t\u00eb kufizoheshin vet\u00ebm n\u00eb tregun e naft\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb or\u00ebt e para t\u00eb s\u00eb m\u00ebrkur\u00ebs, ushtria amerikane sulmoi Iranin pasi tha se Teherani kishte goditur tri anije n\u00eb Ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit. Irani u kund\u00ebrp\u00ebrgjigj me sulme q\u00eb kishin n\u00eb sh\u00ebnjest\u00ebr Bahreinin dhe Kuvajtin. Shk\u00ebmbimi rajonal i zjarrit rriti rrezikun q\u00eb marr\u00ebveshja e p\u00ebrkohshme p\u00ebr ndalimin e luftimeve n\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb prishej. Megjithat\u00eb, shk\u00ebmbimi i zjarrit ndoqi nj\u00eb model sulmesh t\u00eb ngjashme gjat\u00eb arm\u00ebpushimit t\u00eb brisht\u00eb t\u00eb marr\u00ebveshjes dhe asnj\u00ebri vend nuk dha menj\u00ebher\u00eb sinjale se do t\u00eb t\u00ebrhiqej nga tryeza e negociatave.<\/p>\n

\u00c7mimet e naft\u00ebs reaguan ndaj sulmeve duke u rritur me m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 3% deri t\u00eb m\u00ebrkur\u00ebn n\u00eb m\u00ebngjes, nd\u00ebrsa standardi nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar Brent tregtohej mbi 76 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i.<\/p>\n

\u201cPrishja e nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshjeje paqeje nuk do t\u00eb rriste vet\u00ebm \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs, por gjithashtu do t\u00eb shtonte presionin mbi zinxhir\u00ebt e furnizimit t\u00eb inteligjenc\u00ebs artificiale n\u00eb Azi, do t\u2019i detyronte bankat qendrore t\u00eb mbanin nj\u00eb q\u00ebndrim agresiv, do t\u00eb shtr\u00ebngonte kushtet financiare dhe mund t\u00eb ndryshonte rezultatin e zgjedhjeve t\u00eb mesmandatit n\u00eb SHBA dhe t\u00eb zgjedhjeve n\u00eb Izrael [\u2026] efekti zinxhir zhvillohet shpejt\u201d, deklaroi Sweet.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb hedhje monedhe me nj\u00eb diferenc\u00eb prej 20 dollar\u00ebsh<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jo t\u00eb gjith\u00eb e ndajn\u00eb parashikimin e Oxford Economics p\u00ebr \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Parashikimi i mesvitit i Morgan Stanley, i publikuar n\u00eb maj, parashikonte q\u00eb \u00e7mimi i naft\u00ebs bruto t\u00eb ngjitej s\u00ebrish n\u00eb rreth 90 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i deri n\u00eb fund t\u00eb vitit, nj\u00eb diferenc\u00eb prej rreth 20 dollar\u00ebsh krahasuar me parashikimin e Oxford Economics, \u00e7ka p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebson dy baste t\u00eb ndryshme mbi t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin proces paqeje.<\/p>\n

Edhe Banka Bot\u00ebrore \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e kujdesshme, duke parashikuar q\u00eb \u00e7mimi mesatar i naft\u00ebs bruto Brent t\u00eb jet\u00eb rreth 94 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i k\u00ebt\u00eb vit, nd\u00ebrsa paralajm\u00ebron se rritja e PBB-s\u00eb globale do t\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsohet n\u00eb 2,5% n\u00eb vitin 2026.<\/p>\n

Duke reflektuar mbi m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn se si shk\u00ebmbimi i fundit i sulmeve po e v\u00eb n\u00eb prov\u00eb arm\u00ebpushimin e brisht\u00eb, Sweet tha: \u201cTrafiku p\u00ebrmes Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb tregues i mir\u00eb. Marr\u00ebveshja parashikonte rikthimin e plot\u00eb t\u00eb trafikut p\u00ebrmes k\u00ebsaj pike strategjike brenda 30 dit\u00ebsh, duke e b\u00ebr\u00eb mesin e korrikut afatin e par\u00eb t\u00eb prer\u00eb\u201d, shpjegoi ai.<\/p>\n

\u201cNj\u00eb rikthim i q\u00ebndruesh\u00ebm deri n\u00eb mesin e korrikut n\u00eb 75% ose m\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb nivelit t\u00eb trafikut para luft\u00ebs do t\u2019i rriste gjasat q\u00eb marr\u00ebveshja po q\u00ebndron, dhe anasjelltas\u201d, p\u00ebrfundoi Sweet.<\/p>\n

Treguesi tjet\u00ebr, sipas tij, \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebse Irani do t\u00eb aktivizoj\u00eb zyrtarisht klauzol\u00ebn e marr\u00ebveshjes p\u00ebr Libanin n\u00eb lidhje me sulmet izraelite dhe n\u00ebse reagimi i tij do t\u00eb jet\u00eb ushtarak apo retorik.<\/p>\n

Tarifat, tregtia dhe inteligjenca artificiale<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tregtia \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr rrezik q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndryshoj\u00eb perspektiv\u00ebn.<\/p>\n

Tarifat amerikane sipas Seksionit 122 pritet t\u00eb skadojn\u00eb m\u00eb 24 korrik, por Uashingtoni ka p\u00ebrgatitur tashm\u00eb tarifa z\u00ebvend\u00ebsuese sipas Seksionit 301. Oxford Economics pret q\u00eb ndryshimet t\u2019i \u00e7ojn\u00eb normat efektive t\u00eb tarifave n\u00eb nivele m\u00eb t\u00eb larta nga fundi i korrikut, nd\u00ebrsa SHBA-ja synon t\u00eb ruaj\u00eb t\u00eb ardhura mujore nga tarifat prej 25 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00ebsh (21,8 miliard\u00eb euro) deri n\u00eb 30 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb (26,2 miliard\u00eb euro).<\/p>\n

Edhe Evropa po mban nj\u00eb q\u00ebndrim m\u00eb t\u00eb ashp\u00ebr. Komisioni Evropian ka hapur m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 50 hetime p\u00ebr mbrojtjen tregtare ndaj Kin\u00ebs, nga 17 nj\u00eb vit m\u00eb par\u00eb, dhe planifikon t\u00eb paraqes\u00eb nj\u00eb strategji m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb p\u00ebr sigurin\u00eb ekonomike deri n\u00eb shtator.<\/p>\n

K\u00ebto tensione tregtare ndikojn\u00eb gjithashtu n\u00eb hovin e inteligjenc\u00ebs artificiale, i cili ka nxitur tregjet financiare k\u00ebt\u00eb vit.<\/p>\n

Oxford Economics v\u00ebren se industria amerikane e inteligjenc\u00ebs artificiale varet n\u00eb mas\u00eb t\u00eb madhe nga gjysm\u00ebp\u00ebr\u00e7uesit dhe pajisjet e tjera t\u00eb transportuara nga Azia Verilindore dhe Juglindore, rajonet q\u00eb kan\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb humbur nga \u00e7do nd\u00ebrprerje e m\u00ebtejshme e mallrave q\u00eb kalojn\u00eb p\u00ebrmes Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit.<\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, Banka p\u00ebr Shlyerje Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare (BIS), organizata ombrell\u00eb e bankave qendrore, paralajm\u00ebroi se bumi i inteligjenc\u00ebs artificiale mb\u00ebshtetet gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb \u201cfinancim qarkor\u201d jo transparent mes prodhuesve t\u00eb \u00e7ipave, gjigant\u00ebve t\u00eb sh\u00ebrbimeve cloud dhe laborator\u00ebve t\u00eb inteligjenc\u00ebs artificiale, si edhe n\u00eb kredin\u00eb private me rregullim t\u00eb leht\u00eb, ku huadh\u00ebnia p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb sektor \u00ebsht\u00eb kat\u00ebrfishuar n\u00eb pes\u00eb vjet.<\/p>\n

Drejtuesi i BIS-it p\u00ebr rajonin e Azis\u00eb dhe Paq\u00ebsorit, Zhang Tao, paralajm\u00ebroi se var\u00ebsia e sektorit nga financimi jobankar do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie e inteligjenc\u00ebs artificiale mund t\u00eb shkaktoj\u00eb nj\u00eb korrigjim m\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb dhe m\u00eb t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb sesa nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb tradicionale bankare.<\/p>\n

Sweet modeloi se si mund t\u00eb dukej nj\u00eb p\u00ebrmbysje e till\u00eb.<\/p>\n

\u201cNe kemi krijuar nj\u00eb t\u00eb ashtuquajtur skenar t\u00eb kolapsit teknologjik, ku aksionet e kompanive teknologjike amerikane bien me 25% gjat\u00eb nj\u00eb viti\u201d, tha ai p\u00ebr Euronews.<\/p>\n

Sipas Sweet, nj\u00eb goditje e till\u00eb do ta b\u00ebnte ekonomin\u00eb amerikane \u201ct\u00eb ndalonte pothuajse plot\u00ebsisht\u201d, duke u p\u00ebrhapur te eksportuesit e teknologjis\u00eb dhe te ndjeshm\u00ebria e investitor\u00ebve n\u00eb mbar\u00eb bot\u00ebn, nd\u00ebrsa rritja globale vitin e ardhsh\u00ebm do t\u00eb ishte 1,1 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjeje m\u00eb e ul\u00ebt se skenari baz\u00eb i Oxford Economics.<\/p>\n

Bankat qendrore, zgjedhjet dhe kalendari<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dominot\u00eb e fundit jan\u00eb politika ekonomike dhe politika.<\/p>\n

Oxford Economics pret q\u00eb bankat kryesore qendrore t\u00eb tregohen m\u00eb t\u00eb prirura drejt leht\u00ebsimit monetar nga sa parashikojn\u00eb aktualisht tregjet financiare, megjith\u00ebse ato mund ta ndryshojn\u00eb shpejt q\u00ebndrimin n\u00ebse trafiku p\u00ebrmes Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit dob\u00ebsohet ose n\u00ebse \u00e7mimet e inputeve p\u00ebr inteligjenc\u00ebn artificiale sinjalizojn\u00eb presione n\u00eb furnizim.<\/p>\n

Prova m\u00eb e af\u00ebrt \u00ebsht\u00eb vendimi i Rezerv\u00ebs Federale p\u00ebr normat e interesit, n\u00ebn drejtimin e kryetarit Kevin Warsh, m\u00eb von\u00eb gjat\u00eb k\u00ebtij muaji, pas raportit t\u00eb dob\u00ebt t\u00eb qershorit p\u00ebr tregun e pun\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

M\u00eb pas vijn\u00eb zgjedhjet e mesmandatit n\u00eb SHBA n\u00eb n\u00ebntor dhe zgjedhjet e p\u00ebrgjithshme n\u00eb Izrael, q\u00eb duhet t\u00eb mbahen deri n\u00eb fund t\u00eb tetorit, t\u00eb cilat mund t\u00eb ndikojn\u00eb n\u00eb procesin e paqes n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme. N\u00eb shtator, zgjedhjet n\u00eb land\u00ebt gjermane mund t\u00eb v\u00ebn\u00eb gjithashtu n\u00eb prov\u00eb koalicionin q\u00eb mb\u00ebshtet politik\u00ebn fiskale t\u00eb Gjermanis\u00eb, nj\u00eb shtys\u00eb ky\u00e7e p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb e eurozon\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Oxford Economics evidenton gjithashtu mund\u00ebsi reale p\u00ebr zhvillime pozitive, nga nj\u00eb produktivitet m\u00eb i lart\u00eb i nxitur nga inteligjenca artificiale, te nj\u00eb ekonomi e Bashkimit Evropian q\u00eb e p\u00ebrballoi tremujorin e dyt\u00eb \u00e7udit\u00ebrisht mir\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Sipas Sweet, fakti n\u00ebse q\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebria e Evrop\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb reale do t\u00eb shfaqet fillimisht n\u00eb Gjermani dhe n\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e kreditimit.<\/p>\n

\u201cN\u00ebse kompanit\u00eb po e p\u00ebrballonin ngushtimin e marzheve t\u00eb fitimit nga rritja e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb energjis\u00eb pa shkurtuar investimet dhe duke p\u00ebrdorur linjat e kreditit, kjo do ta p\u00ebrforconte argumentin se ritmi baz\u00eb i ekonomis\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i mir\u00eb nga sa prisnim\u201d, tha ai p\u00ebr Euronews, duke shtuar se nj\u00eb tkurrje e kreditimit bankar n\u00eb eurozon\u00eb do t\u00eb tregonte t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt\u00ebn.<\/p>\n

\u00cbsht\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme t\u00eb theksohet se devijimi tipik i parashikimeve t\u00eb Oxford Economics \u00ebsht\u00eb pothuajse nj\u00eb pik\u00eb e plot\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjeje dhe se intervali i pasiguris\u00eb rreth k\u00ebtij vler\u00ebsimi n\u00eb ve\u00e7anti \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i gjer\u00eb se zakonisht.\/ Euronews<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

4 Shtator 2026 Pas gjasht\u00eb muajsh t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktuar nga lufta, nj\u00eb goditje e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe nj\u00eb tregti e ethshme e lidhur me inteligjenc\u00ebn artificiale, ekonomist\u00ebt thon\u00eb se pjesa e mbetur e vitit varet nga nj\u00eb zinxhir rreziqesh t\u00eb nd\u00ebrlidhura, ku paqja e brisht\u00eb mes SHBA-s\u00eb dhe Iranit \u00ebsht\u00eb faktori ky\u00e7. Sipas nj\u00eb analize […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":105934,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[27,1,35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-105933","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blogu-i-udhetarit","category-njoftime-shtypi","category-shoqerore"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ekonomia-globale.jpg?fit=1536%2C864&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5Z6wp-ryB","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":100333,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/disa-shpjegime-pse-cmimi-i-arit-po-arrin-ne-nivele-rekord\/","url_meta":{"origin":105933,"position":0},"title":"Disa shpjegime: – Pse \u00e7mimi i arit po arrin n\u00eb nivele rekord?","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"May 16, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"16 Maji 2026 Investitor\u00ebt po k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb streh\u00eb t\u00eb sigurta mes pasiguris\u00eb s\u00eb shtuar ekonomike. \u00c7mimi i arit \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur me gati nj\u00eb t\u00eb tret\u00ebn gjat\u00eb nj\u00eb viti, duke tejkaluar 3,550 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr ons k\u00ebt\u00eb jav\u00eb, nj\u00eb nivel rekord. 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