{"id":103800,"date":"2026-08-04T19:11:11","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T19:11:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/?p=103800"},"modified":"2026-08-04T19:11:11","modified_gmt":"2026-08-04T19:11:11","slug":"shkencetaret-zbulojne-nje-pershpejtim-te-mprehte-te-ngrohjes-globale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/shkencetaret-zbulojne-nje-pershpejtim-te-mprehte-te-ngrohjes-globale\/","title":{"rendered":"Shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebt zbulojn\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtim t\u00eb mpreht\u00eb t\u00eb ngrohjes globale"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

4 Gusht 2026<\/p>\n

Ngrohja globale \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtuar q\u00eb nga viti 2015, sipas nj\u00eb analize t\u00eb re nga Instituti i Potsdamit p\u00ebr K\u00ebrkimet mbi Ndikimin Klimatik (PIK). Pasi hoq\u00ebn efektet e luhatjeve natyrore t\u00eb temperatur\u00ebs, studiuesit gjet\u00ebn prov\u00ebn e par\u00eb statistikisht dometh\u00ebn\u00ebse se ritmi afatgjat\u00eb i ngrohjes s\u00eb planetit po p\u00ebrshpejtohet.<\/p>\n

Gjat\u00eb dekad\u00ebs s\u00eb fundit, temperaturat globale jan\u00eb rritur me nj\u00eb rit\u00ebm t\u00eb vler\u00ebsuar prej rreth 0,35\u00b0C p\u00ebr dekad\u00eb, n\u00eb var\u00ebsi t\u00eb grupit t\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorur. N\u00eb krahasim, ritmi mesatar i ngrohjes nga viti 1970 deri n\u00eb vitin 2015 ishte pak m\u00eb pak se 0,2\u00b0C p\u00ebr dekad\u00eb. Ritmi i fundit \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i lart\u00eb se ai i \u00e7do dekade t\u00eb m\u00ebparshme q\u00eb nga fillimi i regjistrimeve instrumentale t\u00eb temperatur\u00ebs n\u00eb vitin 1880.<\/p>\n

Shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebt izolojn\u00eb sinjalin afatgjat\u00eb t\u00eb ngrohjes<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cNe tani mund t\u00eb demonstrojm\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtim t\u00eb fort\u00eb dhe statistikisht dometh\u00ebn\u00ebs t\u00eb ngrohjes globale q\u00eb nga rreth viti 2015\u201d, thot\u00eb Grant Foster, ekspert amerikan i statistikave dhe bashkautor i studimit, i cili u publikua sot n\u00eb revist\u00ebn shkencore Geophysical Research Letters.<\/p>\n

\u201cNe filtrojm\u00eb ndikimet natyrore t\u00eb njohura nga t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat v\u00ebzhguese, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb \u2018zhurma\u2019 t\u00eb reduktohet, duke b\u00ebr\u00eb q\u00eb sinjali themelor i ngrohjes afatgjat\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebhet m\u00eb i duksh\u00ebm\u201d, shtoi Foster.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat klimatike, \u201czhurma\u201d i referohet ndryshimeve afatshkurtra t\u00eb temperatur\u00ebs q\u00eb mund t\u00eb fshehin ose t\u00eb ekzagjerojn\u00eb p\u00ebrkoh\u00ebsisht prirjen themelore. El Ni\u00f1o, p\u00ebr shembull, mund t\u00eb rris\u00eb temperaturat globale p\u00ebr nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb t\u00eb kufizuar duke \u00e7liruar nxeht\u00ebsi nga Oqeani Paq\u00ebsor tropikal n\u00eb atmosfer\u00eb. Shp\u00ebrthimet vullkanike mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb efektin e kund\u00ebrt duke d\u00ebrguar grimca n\u00eb atmosfer\u00eb q\u00eb reflektojn\u00eb drit\u00ebn e diellit, nd\u00ebrsa ndryshimet n\u00eb aktivitetin e Diellit mund t\u00eb prodhojn\u00eb gjithashtu ndryshime m\u00eb t\u00eb vogla t\u00eb temperatur\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr t\u00eb ndar\u00eb k\u00ebto ndikime t\u00eb p\u00ebrkohshme nga prirja m\u00eb e gjer\u00eb e ngrohjes, studiuesit analizuan matjet nga pes\u00eb grupe t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorura gjer\u00ebsisht t\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave globale t\u00eb temperatur\u00ebs (NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, ERA5).<\/p>\n

\u201cT\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e rregulluara tregojn\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtim t\u00eb ngrohjes globale q\u00eb nga viti 2015, me nj\u00eb siguri statistikore mbi 98 p\u00ebr qind, n\u00eb p\u00ebrputhje me t\u00eb gjitha grupet e t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb shqyrtuara dhe t\u00eb pavarura nga metoda e analiz\u00ebs s\u00eb zgjedhur\u201d, shpjegon Stefan Rahmstorf, studiues n\u00eb PIK dhe autori kryesor i studimit.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrshpejtimi i ngrohjes shfaqet n\u00eb pes\u00eb grupe t\u00eb dh\u00ebnash<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb siguri statistikore prej m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 98 p\u00ebr qind do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se studiuesit gjet\u00ebn prova t\u00eb forta se ndryshimi n\u00eb ritmin e ngrohjes \u00ebsht\u00eb real dhe jo rezultat i ndryshimeve t\u00eb rast\u00ebsishme n\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebna. I nj\u00ebjti model i p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm u shfaq n\u00eb t\u00eb pes\u00eb regjistrimet e temperatur\u00ebs, edhe pse grupet e t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave prodhohen nga organizata t\u00eb ndryshme shkencore dhe p\u00ebrdorin metoda disi t\u00eb ndryshme.<\/p>\n

Pasi studiuesit korrigjuan p\u00ebr El Ni\u00f1o-n dhe maksimumin diellor, ngroht\u00ebsia ekstreme e viteve 2023 dhe 2024 u zvog\u00eblua pak n\u00eb analiz\u00eb. Megjithat\u00eb, t\u00eb dyja vitet mbet\u00ebn dy vitet m\u00eb t\u00eb ngrohta q\u00eb nga fillimi i regjistrimeve instrumentale.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha grupet e t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave, p\u00ebrshpejtimi filloi t\u00eb b\u00ebhej i duksh\u00ebm n\u00eb vitin 2013 ose 2014. Studiuesit e p\u00ebrshkruajn\u00eb ndryshimin m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb si t\u00eb filluar rreth vitit 2015, kur provat u b\u00ebn\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb qarta.<\/p>\n

Dy metoda statistikore tregojn\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin ndryshim<\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktuar n\u00ebse ritmi i ngrohjes kishte ndryshuar q\u00eb nga vitet 1970, ekipi p\u00ebrdori dy qasje statistikore. E para ishte nj\u00eb analiz\u00eb e prirjes kuadratike, e cila teston n\u00ebse kurba e temperatur\u00ebs po p\u00ebrkulet lart me kalimin e koh\u00ebs n\u00eb vend q\u00eb t\u00eb rritet me nj\u00eb rit\u00ebm konstant.<\/p>\n

E dyta ishte nj\u00eb model linear me pjes\u00eb. Kjo metod\u00eb e ndan regjistrimin e temperatur\u00ebs n\u00eb periudha t\u00eb ve\u00e7anta dhe p\u00ebrcakton n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb objektive kur ritmi i ngrohjes duket se ndryshon. T\u00eb dyja qasjet mb\u00ebshtet\u00ebn p\u00ebrfundimin se ngrohja globale \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtuar.<\/p>\n

K\u00ebrkimi u hartua p\u00ebr t\u00eb zbuluar dhe matur p\u00ebrshpejtimin statistikor, jo p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktuar sakt\u00ebsisht pse ai ka ndodhur.<\/p>\n

Megjithat\u00eb, autor\u00ebt vun\u00eb n\u00eb dukje se modelet klimatike mund t\u00eb prodhojn\u00eb periudha gjat\u00eb t\u00eb cilave ngrohja p\u00ebrshpejtohet. Me fjal\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, nj\u00eb rit\u00ebm n\u00eb rritje i ngrohjes \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb p\u00ebrputhje me diapazonin e sjelljes t\u00eb paraqitur n\u00eb modelet aktuale klimatike.<\/p>\n

Modelet klimatike jan\u00eb simulime kompjuterike q\u00eb p\u00ebrdorin ligjet e fizik\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb vler\u00ebsuar se si atmosfera, oqeanet, akulli dhe toka reagojn\u00eb ndaj gazeve serr\u00eb dhe ndikimeve t\u00eb tjera. Ato nuk parashikojn\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb perfekte \u00e7do luhatje afatshkurt\u00ebr, por i ndihmojn\u00eb shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebt t\u00eb vler\u00ebsojn\u00eb modelet afatgjata t\u00eb klim\u00ebs dhe ndryshimet e mundshme n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen.<\/p>\n

Kufiri prej 1,5\u00b0C mund t\u00eb tejkalohet para vitit 2030<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cN\u00ebse ritmi i ngrohjes i 10 viteve t\u00eb fundit vazhdon, kjo do t\u00eb \u00e7onte n\u00eb tejkalimin afatgjat\u00eb t\u00eb kufirit prej 1,5\u00b0C t\u00eb Marr\u00ebveshjes s\u00eb Parisit para vitit 2030\u201d, thot\u00eb Stefan Rahmstorf. \u201cSa shpejt vazhdon t\u00eb ngrohet Toka n\u00eb fund t\u00eb fundit varet nga sa shpejt reduktojm\u00eb emetimet globale t\u00eb CO\u2082 nga l\u00ebnd\u00ebt djeg\u00ebse fosile deri n\u00eb zero.\u201d<\/p>\n

Kufiri prej 1,5\u00b0C i referohet synimit p\u00ebr t\u00eb kufizuar ngrohjen globale afatgjat\u00eb n\u00eb 1,5\u00b0C mbi temperaturat e periudh\u00ebs para-industriale. Nj\u00eb vit i vet\u00ebm mbi k\u00ebt\u00eb nivel nuk do t\u00eb thot\u00eb vetvetiu se kufiri i Marr\u00ebveshjes s\u00eb Parisit \u00ebsht\u00eb kaluar p\u00ebrgjithmon\u00eb. Shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebt zakonisht p\u00ebrqendrohen te ngrohja e q\u00ebndrueshme gjat\u00eb nj\u00eb periudhe m\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Gjetjet sugjerojn\u00eb se Toka mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb duke u ngrohur tani duksh\u00ebm m\u00eb shpejt sesa gjat\u00eb dekadave t\u00eb fundit t\u00eb shekullit t\u00eb 20-t\u00eb. N\u00ebse ky p\u00ebrshpejtim do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb, do t\u00eb varet shum\u00eb nga emetimet e ardhshme t\u00eb dioksidit t\u00eb karbonit nga qymyri, nafta dhe gazi natyror.\/ScienceDaily<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

4 Gusht 2026 Ngrohja globale \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtuar q\u00eb nga viti 2015, sipas nj\u00eb analize t\u00eb re nga Instituti i Potsdamit p\u00ebr K\u00ebrkimet mbi Ndikimin Klimatik (PIK). Pasi hoq\u00ebn efektet e luhatjeve natyrore t\u00eb temperatur\u00ebs, studiuesit gjet\u00ebn prov\u00ebn e par\u00eb statistikisht dometh\u00ebn\u00ebse se ritmi afatgjat\u00eb i ngrohjes s\u00eb planetit po p\u00ebrshpejtohet. Gjat\u00eb dekad\u00ebs s\u00eb fundit, temperaturat […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":103801,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[27,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-103800","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blogu-i-udhetarit","category-njoftime-shtypi"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/640-0-80a8f8d967447b6bf334795cfcddb40f.webp?fit=640%2C360&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5Z6wp-r0c","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":72060,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/paralajmerimi-bota-po-ngrohet-ne-menyre-te-paprecedente-pasojat-do-te-jene-te-renda\/","url_meta":{"origin":103800,"position":0},"title":"Paralajm\u00ebrimi\/ Bota po ngrohet n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb paprecedent\u00eb, pasojat do t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnda","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"June 11, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"11 Qershor 2023 Nj\u00eb paralajm\u00ebrim serioz vjen nga 50 shkenc\u00ebtar\u00eb t\u00eb shquar bot\u00ebror\u00eb se emetimet e larta rekord t\u00eb gazrave serr\u00eb dhe reduktimet e ndotjes s\u00eb ajrit kan\u00eb shkaktuar nj\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtim t\u00eb paprecedent\u00eb t\u00eb ngrohjes globale. 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Nj\u00eb raport i publikuar nga Q\u00ebndresa Qytetare tregon se gjat\u00eb dhjet\u00eb viteve t\u00eb\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit"","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1000-0-172539f2-560b-4560-958e-c6637c9f3728-6a50c26c33b36.webp?fit=1000%2C667&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1000-0-172539f2-560b-4560-958e-c6637c9f3728-6a50c26c33b36.webp?fit=1000%2C667&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1000-0-172539f2-560b-4560-958e-c6637c9f3728-6a50c26c33b36.webp?fit=1000%2C667&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1000-0-172539f2-560b-4560-958e-c6637c9f3728-6a50c26c33b36.webp?fit=1000%2C667&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":102740,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/shpopullimi-nisi-te-pershpejtohej-pas-2013-u-rrit-mbi-55-gjate-sundimit-te-rames\/","url_meta":{"origin":103800,"position":2},"title":"Shpopullimi nisi t\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtohej pas 2013, u rrit mbi 55% gjat\u00eb sundimit t\u00eb Ram\u00ebs","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"July 15, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"15 Korrik 2026 Eurostat nxjerr shifrat trondit\u00ebse Shqip\u00ebria vijon t\u00eb p\u00ebrballet me nj\u00eb nga krizat m\u00eb t\u00eb thella demografike n\u00eb Europ\u00eb. 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