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1 Gusht 2026<\/p>\n
A \u00ebsht\u00eb tregu imobiliar shqiptar n\u00eb nj\u00eb fllusk\u00eb, apo rritja e \u00e7mimeve mb\u00ebshtetet ende nga faktor\u00eb ekonomik\u00eb? Nj\u00eb perspektiv\u00eb investimi e bazuar n\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebna nga Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, INSTAT, Fondi Monetar Komb\u00ebtar dhe Banka Bot\u00ebrore<\/p>\n
Tregu i pasurive t\u00eb paluajtshme \u00ebsht\u00eb mesatarisht i mbivler\u00ebsuar, por nuk paraqet karakteristikat e nj\u00eb flluske klasike t\u00eb financuar nga kreditimi. Ky konkluzion arrihet nga analiza, e bazuar n\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, INSTAT, Fondit Komb\u00ebtar Monetar dhe Bank\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore.<\/p>\n
Ndryshe nga tregjet q\u00eb u p\u00ebrmbys\u00ebn pas vitit 2008, rritja e \u00e7mimeve n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur kryesisht mbi borxh t\u00eb tepruar familjar apo nj\u00eb ekspozim t\u00eb pakontrolluar t\u00eb sektorit bankar.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrkundrazi, k\u00ebrkesa \u00ebsht\u00eb ushqyer nga faktor\u00eb strukturor\u00eb si urbanizimi i Tiran\u00ebs, zgjerimi i turizmit, investimet e diaspor\u00ebs, remitancat, Investimet e Huaja Direkte dhe p\u00ebrdorimi i pron\u00ebs si ruajt\u00ebse vlere.<\/p>\n
Ky kombinim ka krijuar nj\u00eb treg ku \u00e7mimet nuk shpjegohen as nga t\u00eb ardhurat e familjeve vendase dhe as nga kreditimi hipotekor, duke e b\u00ebr\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb shk\u00ebputje midis fuqis\u00eb bler\u00ebse lokale dhe burimeve t\u00eb jashtme karakteristik\u00ebn m\u00eb unike t\u00eb tregut shqiptar.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, analiza evidenton rreziqe t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme: \u00e7mimet e banesave kan\u00eb ecur duksh\u00ebm m\u00eb shpejt se pagat, p\u00ebrballueshm\u00ebria \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsuar, normat e banesave t\u00eb pabanuara jan\u00eb t\u00eb larta dhe popullsia rezidente vazhdon t\u00eb bjer\u00eb. R\u00ebnia e popullsis\u00eb dhe niveli i lart\u00eb i aktivitetit nd\u00ebrtimor rrisin rrezikun q\u00eb oferta t\u00eb tejkaloj\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn reale n\u00eb zona t\u00eb caktuara.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebto zhvillime sugjerojn\u00eb se tregu nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb domosdoshm\u00ebrisht pran\u00eb nj\u00eb kolapsi t\u00eb menj\u00ebhersh\u00ebm, por se normat e kthimit n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen do t\u00eb varen gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb nga cil\u00ebsia e lokacionit, k\u00ebrkesa turistike dhe q\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebria e flukseve t\u00eb kapitalit t\u00eb jasht\u00ebm.<\/p>\n
Vler\u00ebsimi i p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm: Treg mesatarisht i mbivler\u00ebsuar me perspektiv\u00eb pozitive afatgjat\u00eb, por me rrezik t\u00eb moderuar p\u00ebr r\u00ebnie. Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb vler\u00ebsim i autorit, i mb\u00ebshtetur n\u00eb analiz\u00ebn e t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave publike t\u00eb institucioneve t\u00eb p\u00ebrmendura m\u00eb sip\u00ebr.<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrtimi dhe ekonomia (PBB)<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrtimi p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebson drejtp\u00ebrdrejt rreth 12% t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, nj\u00eb nga peshat m\u00eb t\u00eb larta n\u00eb Europ\u00eb sipas t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb INSTAT-it.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb qoft\u00eb se p\u00ebrfshihen aktivitetet e pasurive t\u00eb paluajtshme, financimi bankar, materialet e nd\u00ebrtimit, inxhinieria, mobilimi dhe sh\u00ebrbimet e lidhura, ndikimi ekonomik i ekosistemit \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i gjer\u00eb se kontributi i drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb i sektorit.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb terma nominal\u00eb, PBB-ja ka regjistruar nj\u00eb norm\u00eb mesatare vjetore rritjeje prej rreth 10.1% gjat\u00eb periudh\u00ebs 2015\u20132024, nd\u00ebrsa vler\u00ebsimet deri n\u00eb vitin 2026 e \u00e7ojn\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb norm\u00eb n\u00eb rreth 10.25%.<\/p>\n
Pas nj\u00eb periudhe t\u00eb zgjatur stagnimi pas kriz\u00ebs financiare globale, tregu shqiptar i banesave nisi t\u00eb rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbej pas vitit 2015 dhe u p\u00ebrshpejtua ndjesh\u00ebm pas vitit 2021. Indeksi Fisher i Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb tregon se indeksi komb\u00ebtar i \u00e7mimeve u rrit nga rreth 1.0 n\u00eb vitin 2015 n\u00eb 3.6 n\u00eb vitin 2025, nd\u00ebrsa indeksi p\u00ebr Tiran\u00ebn arriti rreth 3.1.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb vitin 2025, rritja komb\u00ebtare tejkaloi Tiran\u00ebn, duke treguar se zonat bregdetare dhe tregjet e tjera rajonale jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme n\u00eb ciklin e rritjes.<\/p>\n
Remitancat jan\u00eb nj\u00eb burim i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm strukturor i k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs p\u00ebr banesa, pasi u japin familjeve fuqi bler\u00ebse p\u00ebrtej t\u00eb ardhurave t\u00eb raportuara zyrtarisht. Sipas Bank\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore, ato u rrit\u00ebn nga rreth 1.29 miliard\u00eb euro n\u00eb vitin 2015 n\u00eb rreth 2.27 miliard\u00eb euro n\u00eb vitin 2024, nd\u00ebrsa pesha e tyre ndaj PBB-s\u00eb ra nga 11.3% n\u00eb 8.4%.<\/p>\n
Kjo r\u00ebnie relative nuk tregon dob\u00ebsim t\u00eb remitancave, por rritje m\u00eb t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb flukset vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtesin kursimet, konsumin dhe blerjet e pronave, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht ato me para n\u00eb dor\u00eb.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrballueshm\u00ebria e banesave \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsuar ndjesh\u00ebm. Nd\u00ebrmjet viteve 2015 dhe 2025, indeksi komb\u00ebtar i \u00e7mimeve u rrit nga 1.0 n\u00eb 3.6, nd\u00ebrsa indeksi i pagave arriti vet\u00ebm rreth 1.6, duke treguar se \u00e7mimet u rrit\u00ebn m\u00eb shum\u00eb se dy her\u00eb m\u00eb shpejt se pagat.<\/p>\n
Sipas t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb Numbeo-s t\u00eb publikuara nga Revista Monitor, p\u00ebr gjasht\u00ebmujorin e par\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2025, n\u00eb Tiran\u00eb nevojiten rreth 18 vite t\u00eb ardhura p\u00ebr t\u00eb bler\u00eb nj\u00eb apartament, duke e renditur qytetin nd\u00ebr tregjet m\u00eb pak t\u00eb p\u00ebrballueshme n\u00eb Europ\u00eb. N\u00eb rang bot\u00ebror, Tirana renditet n\u00eb vendin e 37-t\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Inflacioni dhe kostot e nd\u00ebrtimit<\/p>\n
Inflacioni u rrit ndjesh\u00ebm pas pandemis\u00eb dhe goditjes globale t\u00eb energjis\u00eb, duke kulmuar n\u00eb vitin 2022 p\u00ebrpara se t\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsohej gradualisht drejt objektivit 3% t\u00eb Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Forcimi i Lekut kundrejt Euros ka ndihmuar n\u00eb uljen e inflacionit t\u00eb importuar duke reduktuar koston n\u00eb Lek t\u00eb karburanteve, ushqimeve, makinerive dhe l\u00ebnd\u00ebve t\u00eb para.<\/p>\n
Sipas INSTAT, Indeksi i kostos s\u00eb nd\u00ebrtimit u rrit me nj\u00eb norm\u00eb vjetore rritje e p\u00ebrb\u00ebr\u00eb prej rreth 2.17% gjat\u00eb periudh\u00ebs 2018\u20132026, shum\u00eb m\u00eb ngadal\u00eb se \u00e7mimet e banesave, duke sugjeruar se k\u00ebrkesa ka qen\u00eb faktori dominues i rritjes s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve.<\/p>\n
Kursi i k\u00ebmbimit (Forcimi i Lekut)<\/p>\n
Leku \u00ebsht\u00eb forcuar ndjesh\u00ebm kundrejt Euros, i mb\u00ebshtetur nga t\u00eb ardhurat e turizmit, remitancat, Investimet e Huaja Direkte dhe flukset e q\u00ebndrueshme valutore.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb Lek m\u00eb i fort\u00eb ka ulur inflacionin e importuar dhe koston e materialeve t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtimit t\u00eb blera jasht\u00eb vendit, duke zbutur pjes\u00ebrisht presionet mbi koston e zhvilluesve.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, forcimi i monedh\u00ebs nuk e ka ndalur rritjen e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb pronave, \u00e7ka p\u00ebrforcon p\u00ebrfundimin se k\u00ebrkesa strukturore dhe kapitali i jasht\u00ebm kan\u00eb qen\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm se kostot e nd\u00ebrtimit.<\/p>\n
Kreditimi hipotekor po zgjerohet dhe po mb\u00ebshtet k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn, por nuk mjafton p\u00ebr t\u00eb shpjeguar rritjen e fort\u00eb t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve. Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb raporton se n\u00eb vitin 2021, rreth 33% e blerjeve t\u00eb pronave financoheshin me kredi bankare, duke reflektuar nj\u00eb treg kryesisht t\u00eb bazuar n\u00eb para n\u00eb dor\u00eb.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb vitin 2025, kjo pjes\u00eb u rrit n\u00eb 61%. Ky zhvillim tregon maturim dhe formalizim gradual t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb, si edhe nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebsim financiar m\u00eb t\u00eb thell\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa fakti q\u00eb 38% e kredive mbulonin 60% ose m\u00eb pak t\u00eb vler\u00ebs s\u00eb pron\u00ebs tregon se nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e konsiderueshme e bler\u00ebsve kontribuojn\u00eb me kapital t\u00eb lart\u00eb vetjak.<\/p>\n
Popullsia rezidente e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb ka r\u00ebn\u00eb nga pothuajse 2.9 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2015 n\u00eb rreth 2.33 milion\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2026, megjith\u00ebse ndryshimi metodologjik pas Censit t\u00eb INSTAT 2023 kufizon krahasueshm\u00ebrin\u00eb e plot\u00eb t\u00eb seris\u00eb.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, diaspora shqiptare vler\u00ebsohet n\u00eb rreth 2.26 milion\u00eb persona, pothuajse sa popullsia rezidente, dhe 77% e saj \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb mosh\u00eb pune.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrmes remitancave, kursimeve dhe blerjeve t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejta t\u00eb pronave, diaspora kompenson pjes\u00ebrisht efektin negativ t\u00eb r\u00ebnies s\u00eb popullsis\u00eb, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00eb Tiran\u00eb dhe n\u00eb zonat bregdetare.<\/p>\n
Rreziku i banesave t\u00eb pabanuara<\/p>\n
Censi i vitit 2023 evidentoi 356,204 banesa t\u00eb pabanuara nga gjithsej 1,082,529 banesa t\u00eb zakonshme, ose 32.9% t\u00eb stokut komb\u00ebtar.<\/p>\n
Norma ishte ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht e lart\u00eb n\u00eb Vlor\u00eb, rreth 52%, dhe n\u00eb Durr\u00ebs, rreth 44%, kundrejt rreth 22% n\u00eb Tiran\u00eb. Rritja nga 11.3% n\u00eb vitin 2001 dhe 21.7% n\u00eb vitin 2011 sugjeron se oferta \u00ebsht\u00eb zgjeruar m\u00eb shpejt se p\u00ebrdorimi i p\u00ebrhersh\u00ebm rezidencial, megjith\u00ebse banesat e dyta, pronat sezonale dhe nj\u00ebsit\u00eb p\u00ebrkoh\u00ebsisht bosh nuk duhen interpretuar automatikisht si stok i pashitur.<\/p>\n
Investimet e Huaja Direkte jan\u00eb orientuar gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb drejt pasurive t\u00eb paluajtshme. Q\u00eb prej vitit 2022, rreth 20 \u2013 25% e flukseve vjetore t\u00eb IHD-ve jan\u00eb drejtuar n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb sektor, duke e b\u00ebr\u00eb at\u00eb nj\u00eb nga p\u00ebrfituesit kryesor\u00eb t\u00eb kapitalit t\u00eb huaj.<\/p>\n
FMN raportonte se nd\u00ebrmjet viteve 2015 dhe 2025, IHD-t\u00eb totale u rrit\u00ebn nga rreth 0.99 miliard\u00eb n\u00eb 1.87 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb, me nj\u00eb norm\u00eb rritje t\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebr\u00eb prej af\u00ebrsisht 6.57%, duke rritur ndikimin e k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs s\u00eb jashtme mbi \u00e7mimet n\u00eb Tiran\u00eb dhe n\u00eb zonat bregdetare.<\/p>\n
Ekonomia informale mbetet nj\u00eb tipar strukturor i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm i ekonomis\u00eb shqiptare dhe ndikon drejtp\u00ebrdrejt n\u00eb interpretimin e tregut t\u00eb banesave. Vler\u00ebsimi i fundit sasior i FMN-s\u00eb e vendos ekonomin\u00eb informale n\u00eb rreth 27.2% t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb p\u00ebr vitin 2019, nd\u00ebrsa Banka Bot\u00ebrore vijon ta p\u00ebrshkruaj\u00eb si af\u00ebrsisht nj\u00eb t\u00eb tret\u00ebn e ekonomis\u00eb.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr pasoj\u00eb, t\u00eb ardhurat zyrtare mund t\u00eb n\u00ebnvler\u00ebsojn\u00eb fuqin\u00eb reale bler\u00ebse t\u00eb nj\u00eb pjese t\u00eb familjeve dhe ta b\u00ebjn\u00eb raportin \u00e7mim \u2013 t\u00eb ardhura m\u00eb pak shpjegues sesa n\u00eb tregje m\u00eb t\u00eb formalizuara.<\/p>\n
Kleringu ka luajtur historikisht rol n\u00eb financimin e projekteve t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtimit, duke u mund\u00ebsuar zhvilluesve t\u00eb kompensojn\u00eb pronar\u00ebt e tok\u00ebs, kontraktor\u00ebt dhe furnitor\u00ebt me apartamente ose nj\u00ebsi tregtare n\u00eb vend t\u00eb pages\u00ebs n\u00eb para.<\/p>\n
Megjith\u00ebse 41% e firmave t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtimit kan\u00eb kredi, niveli m\u00eb i lart\u00eb i pjes\u00ebmarrjes n\u00eb huamarrje nd\u00ebr sektor\u00eb, t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e disponueshme nuk tregojn\u00eb mbingarkes\u00eb t\u00eb qart\u00eb me borxh.<\/p>\n
Kjo sugjeron se aktiviteti financohet p\u00ebrmes nj\u00eb kombinimi t\u00eb kredive bankare, kapitalit t\u00eb pronar\u00ebve dhe mekanizmave alternativ\u00eb si kleringu.<\/p>\n
Fondet me burim t\u00eb paqart\u00eb<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb studim nga Friedrich Ebert Foundation n\u00eb vitin 2025 vler\u00ebson se lejet e nd\u00ebrtimit t\u00eb miratuara gjat\u00eb periudh\u00ebs 2015 \u2013 2024 p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsonin nj\u00eb vler\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme tregu prej rreth 16.24 miliard\u00eb eurosh, p\u00ebr afro 11.48 milion\u00eb metra katror\u00eb sip\u00ebrfaqe nd\u00ebrtimi.<\/p>\n
Sipas t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtit vler\u00ebsim, vet\u00ebm rreth 7.11 miliard\u00eb euro mund t\u00eb lidheshin me financim bankar ose investime t\u00eb huaja t\u00eb deklaruara, duke l\u00ebn\u00eb nj\u00eb hendek prej afro 9.13 miliard\u00eb eurosh, ose 56% t\u00eb totalit, me burim financimi t\u00eb paqart\u00eb.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, n\u00eb vitin 2021, Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime vler\u00ebson se n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri qarkullojn\u00eb \u00e7do vit rreth 280 \u2013 700 milion\u00eb euro n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb informale, nd\u00ebrsa nd\u00ebrtimi dhe pasurit\u00eb e paluajtshme konsiderohen nd\u00ebr kanalet m\u00eb t\u00eb ekspozuara p\u00ebr integrimin e fondeve t\u00eb paligjshme n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb formale.<\/p>\n
Raportet e organizat\u00ebs p\u00ebrshkruajn\u00eb p\u00ebrdorimin e kompanive t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtimit, transaksioneve me para n\u00eb dor\u00eb, shoq\u00ebrive guask\u00eb dhe blerjeve t\u00eb pronave si mekanizma potencial\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebtij aktiviteti.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb vitin 2024, The Times dhe Politico publikuan q\u00eb rreth 1.3 miliard\u00eb euro n\u00eb vit jan\u00eb investuar n\u00eb nd\u00ebrtim dhe real estate me burim t\u00eb paqart\u00eb.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebto t\u00eb dh\u00ebna nuk provojn\u00eb automatikisht qarkullim kapitali me burim t\u00eb jasht\u00ebligjsh\u00ebm, por ngren\u00eb pik\u00ebpyetje mbi burimet e financimit dhe kapacitetin real operacional t\u00eb nj\u00eb pjese t\u00eb subjekteve q\u00eb veprojn\u00eb n\u00eb sektor.<\/p>\n
Gjithashtu, tregojn\u00eb se transparenca financiare n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri mungon. Ky informalitet mund t\u00eb rris\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn p\u00ebr banesa p\u00ebrtej nivelit q\u00eb justifikohet nga pagat zyrtare, kreditimi dhe t\u00eb ardhurat e deklaruara.<\/p>\n
Fondet q\u00eb hyjn\u00eb jasht\u00eb kanaleve formale financiare mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrdoren p\u00ebr blerje me para n\u00eb dor\u00eb, duke ushtruar presion shtes\u00eb mbi \u00e7mimet dhe duke dob\u00ebsuar lidhjen tradicionale mes p\u00ebrballueshm\u00ebris\u00eb dhe vler\u00ebs s\u00eb pron\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Si rezultat, tregu mund t\u00eb mbetet i shtrenjt\u00eb p\u00ebr familjet me t\u00eb ardhura t\u00eb deklaruara, nd\u00ebrsa \u00e7mimet mb\u00ebshteten pjes\u00ebrisht nga kapital q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u matur dhe p\u00ebr t\u2019u kontrolluar.<\/p>\n
Analiza sugjeron se Shqip\u00ebria nuk po p\u00ebrjeton nj\u00eb fllusk\u00eb klasike t\u00eb ushqyer nga kreditimi. Tregu \u00ebsht\u00eb i segmentuar dhe mb\u00ebshtetet nga turizmi, diaspora, urbanizimi dhe kapitali i huaj, por p\u00ebrballet me p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsim t\u00eb p\u00ebrballueshm\u00ebris\u00eb, norm\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb banesash t\u00eb pabanuara, r\u00ebnie demografike dhe var\u00ebsi t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb nga nd\u00ebrtimi. Megjithat\u00eb, disa shenja paralajm\u00ebruese meritojn\u00eb v\u00ebmendje:<\/p>\n
Zonat kryesore t\u00eb Tiran\u00ebs dhe destinacionet bregdetare me k\u00ebrkes\u00eb reale turistike duken m\u00eb t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme se tregjet dyt\u00ebsore, nd\u00ebrsa normat e ardhshme t\u00eb kthimit do t\u00eb varen gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb nga cil\u00ebsia e lokacionit dhe p\u00ebrdorimi ekonomik i pron\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Perspektiva e tregut deri n\u00eb vitin 2030<\/p>\n
Skenar\u00ebt e m\u00ebposht\u00ebm p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsojn\u00eb vler\u00ebsimin e autorit, t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur n\u00eb analiz\u00ebn e m\u00ebsip\u00ebrme dhe n\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebna publike nga Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, INSTAT-i, FMN-ja dhe Banka Bot\u00ebrore.<\/p>\n
Skenari baz\u00eb:\u00a0Rritja e PBB-s\u00eb q\u00ebndron rreth 3.5\u20133.7%, nd\u00ebrsa turizmi, nd\u00ebrtimi dhe k\u00ebrkesa e huaj vijojn\u00eb t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtesin tregun, por p\u00ebrballueshm\u00ebria dhe normat e larta t\u00eb banesave t\u00eb pabanuara e ngadal\u00ebsojn\u00eb rritjen e \u00e7mimeve.<\/p>\n
Skenari optimist:\u00a0Turizmi i fort\u00eb, IHD-t\u00eb, p\u00ebrparimi drejt an\u00ebtar\u00ebsimit n\u00eb BE, investimet infrastrukturore, k\u00ebrkesa e diaspor\u00ebs dhe rritja e pagave nxisin nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr cik\u00ebl t\u00eb fort\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Skenari pesimist:\u00a0Mbioferta, k\u00ebrkesa e jashtme m\u00eb e dob\u00ebt, ngadal\u00ebsimi i nd\u00ebrtimit t\u00eb lidhur me turizmin ose shtr\u00ebngimi i kreditimit sjellin stagnim ose r\u00ebnie t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve<\/p>\n
Ekziston nj\u00eb rrezik mesatar deri n\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb mbivler\u00ebsimi, por probabiliteti i nj\u00eb flluske klasike t\u00eb drejtuar nga kredia mbetet relativisht i ul\u00ebt, pasi niveli i huamarrjes hipotekore \u00ebsht\u00eb ende i moderuar, bankat jan\u00eb relativisht rezistente dhe turizmi e diaspora p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsojn\u00eb burime reale strukturore t\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Tregu mbetet t\u00ebrheq\u00ebs, por po b\u00ebhet m\u00eb selektiv. N\u00eb faz\u00ebn e ardhshme, kthimet ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktohen m\u00eb pak nga rritja e p\u00ebrgjithshme komb\u00ebtare dhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb nga rezistenca demografike, turizmi, urbanizimi dhe q\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebria e kapitalit t\u00eb jasht\u00ebm.\/Monitor.al<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
1 Gusht 2026 A \u00ebsht\u00eb tregu imobiliar shqiptar n\u00eb nj\u00eb fllusk\u00eb, apo rritja e \u00e7mimeve mb\u00ebshtetet ende nga faktor\u00eb ekonomik\u00eb? Nj\u00eb perspektiv\u00eb investimi e bazuar n\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebna nga Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, INSTAT, Fondi Monetar Komb\u00ebtar dhe Banka Bot\u00ebrore Tregu i pasurive t\u00eb paluajtshme \u00ebsht\u00eb mesatarisht i mbivler\u00ebsuar, por nuk paraqet karakteristikat e nj\u00eb flluske […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":103572,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[27,1,2,35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-103571","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blogu-i-udhetarit","category-njoftime-shtypi","category-politika","category-shoqerore"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/OIP-1-1.webp?fit=474%2C249&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5Z6wp-qWv","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":102461,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/paradoksi-i-ekonomise-shqiptare-euro-bie-inflacioni-rritet-dhe-prodhimi-vendas-humbet-terren\/","url_meta":{"origin":103571,"position":0},"title":"Paradoksi i ekonomis\u00eb shqiptare: – Euro bie, inflacioni rritet dhe prodhimi vendas humbet terren","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"July 10, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"10 Korrik 2026 N\u00ebse nuk nd\u00ebrmerren politika t\u00eb koordinuara nga Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb dhe Qeveria p\u00ebr t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur sektor\u00ebt prodhues dhe eksportues, rreziku \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb vendi t\u00eb hyj\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb cik\u00ebl ku rritja mb\u00ebshtetet gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb pak te prodhimi dhe gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb te importet, konsumi dhe sektor\u00ebt\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit"","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG-20260709-WA0000.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG-20260709-WA0000.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG-20260709-WA0000.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG-20260709-WA0000.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG-20260709-WA0000.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":101110,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/banesat-po-shtrenjtohen-cmimet-e-apartamenteve-rriten-shume-me-teper-se-kostot-e-ndertimit\/","url_meta":{"origin":103571,"position":1},"title":"Banesat po shtrenjtohen, \u00e7mimet e apartamenteve rriten shum\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr se kostot e nd\u00ebrtimit","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"June 4, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"4 Qershor 2026 Nd\u00ebrtimi mbetet nj\u00eb nga sektor\u00ebt m\u00eb aktiv\u00eb t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb shqiptare, por zhvillimet e fundit tregojn\u00eb se rritja e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb banesave nuk po ec\u00ebn m\u00eb me t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin rit\u00ebm si kostot e nd\u00ebrtimit. T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e publikuara nga INSTAT tregojn\u00eb se Indeksi i Kushtimit n\u00eb Nd\u00ebrtim p\u00ebr\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Njoftime Shtypi"","block_context":{"text":"Njoftime Shtypi","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/njoftime-shtypi\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/vlcsnap-2026-06-04-15h38m13s375_sd-800x450-1.webp?fit=800%2C450&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/vlcsnap-2026-06-04-15h38m13s375_sd-800x450-1.webp?fit=800%2C450&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/vlcsnap-2026-06-04-15h38m13s375_sd-800x450-1.webp?fit=800%2C450&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/vlcsnap-2026-06-04-15h38m13s375_sd-800x450-1.webp?fit=800%2C450&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":79044,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/nuk-ndalet-rritja-e-cmimeve-serish-shtrenjtohet-shporta\/","url_meta":{"origin":103571,"position":2},"title":"Nuk ndalet rritja e \u00e7mimeve, s\u00ebrish shtrenjtohet \u201cshporta\u201d","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"March 8, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"8 Mars 2024 Ritmi i rritjes se \u00e7mimeve ra n\u00eb muajin shkurt n\u00eb 2.6%. Nivel ky i sh\u00ebnuar p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb q\u00eb prej 2021-it, duke kapur projeksionin e Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb q\u00eb parashikonte ta mbante inflacionin posht\u00eb nivelit 3%. Megjithat\u00eb pavar\u00ebsisht shifrave, produktet e shport\u00ebs kan\u00eb sh\u00ebnuar nj\u00eb rritje\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit"","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/640-0-cmim-1709907250-1.jpg?fit=640%2C360&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/640-0-cmim-1709907250-1.jpg?fit=640%2C360&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/640-0-cmim-1709907250-1.jpg?fit=640%2C360&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":88126,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/pse-nuk-do-te-kete-flluske-imobiliare-ne-shqiperi\/","url_meta":{"origin":103571,"position":3},"title":"Pse nuk do t\u00eb ket\u00eb fllusk\u00eb imobiliare n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"January 7, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"8 Janar 2025 Ka vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb arsye q\u00eb tregu imobiliar nuk do t\u00eb ket\u00eb fllusk\u00eb edhe p\u00ebr 5 vitet e ardhshme dhe kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb rritja e vazhdueshme e turizmit dhe turist\u00ebve n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri. Turizmi n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb ndikon edhe ofert\u00ebn edhe k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn. K\u00ebrkes\u00ebn e turist\u00ebve p\u00ebr airbnb e plot\u00ebson\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit"","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit","link":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/category\/blogu-i-udhetarit\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/pallate-ne-tirane.jpg?fit=720%2C395&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/pallate-ne-tirane.jpg?fit=720%2C395&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/pallate-ne-tirane.jpg?fit=720%2C395&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/pallate-ne-tirane.jpg?fit=720%2C395&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63543,"url":"https:\/\/www.shqiperia.com\/blog\/raport-i-bankes-boterore-kriza-e-cmimeve-do-te-perkeqesohet-te-varfrit-me-te-prekurit\/","url_meta":{"origin":103571,"position":4},"title":"Raport i Bankes Boterore: – Kriza e \u00e7mimeve do t\u00eb p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsohet, t\u00eb varfrit m\u00eb t\u00eb prekurit","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"October 24, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"24 Teor 2022 Tensionet gjeopolitike mund t\u00eb shkaktojn\u00eb rritje t\u00eb m\u00ebtejshme t\u00eb inflacionit, probleme n\u00eb zinxhir\u00ebt e furnizimit dhe turbullira n\u00eb tregjet financiare, dhe t\u00eb gjitha k\u00ebto mund t\u00eb zbehin akoma m\u00eb shum\u00eb perspektivat e rritjes ekonomike t\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, lajm\u00ebroi sot Banka Bot\u00ebrore n\u00eb Raportin e fundit t\u00eb Rregullt Ekonomik\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit"","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i 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q\u00eb mund t\u00eb vijn\u00eb nga bumi i nd\u00ebrtimit te pallateve dhe pasurive t\u00eb paluajtshme n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri","author":"Kurt Farka","date":"October 13, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"13 Tetor 2022 Fondi Monetar Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar (FMN), n\u00eb deklarat\u00ebn e fundit p\u00ebr Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb, ka k\u00ebshilluar q\u00eb t\u00eb tregohet kujdes p\u00ebr ndikimin q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb vrulli i nd\u00ebrtimeve dhe zgjerimi i tregut t\u00eb pasurive t\u00eb paluajtshme n\u00eb stabilitetin e sektorit financiar. \u201cNe b\u00ebjm\u00eb thirrje p\u00ebr monitorim nga af\u00ebr dhe menaxhim\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Blogu i Udh\u00ebtarit"","block_context":{"text":"Blogu i 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